SalukiProf
03-04-2006, 10:41 AM
A team-by-team breakdown:
Northern Iowa [23-8]; RPI 21; SOS 39; 8-6 vs RPI top 50; 1 bad loss [158 - Indiana State]; Out of conference RPI 4, SOS 36; 5-5 down the stretch; 10-5 Rd/Neutral.
Analysis: Comfortably in even with a loss against SIU. Despite the awful stretch run, there will not be many better at-large resumes than this, whatever the morons on ESPN's college gameday have to say.
Wichita State [24-7]; RPI 24; SOS 59; 6-7 vs RPI top 50; no bad losses; Out of conference RPI 62, SOS 78; 7-3 down the stretch; 10-5 Rd/Neutral.
Analysis: No blemishes on the resume - even with a loss against Bradley, WSU is as clear as locks get.
Missouri State [20-8]; RPI 25; SOS 45; 4-8 vs RPI top 50; no bad losses; Out of conference RPI 6, SOS 51; 8-2 down the stretch; 8-6 Rd/Neutral.
Analysis: Like UNI, Missouri State is comfortably in. The only negative is the record vs. RPI top 50, but this is mitigated by their lack of bad losses.
Creighton [19-9]; RPI 36; SOS 53; 6-6 vs RPI top 50; 2 bad losses [Chattanooga 176, Illinois State 226]; Out of conference RPI 24, SOS 84; 6-4 down the stretch; 5-8 Rd/Neutral.
Analysis: On the right side of the bubble - but will probably be forced to sweat things out until all of the 11 seeds are announced on Selection Sunday. The bad losses were early enough that they will not matter a great deal, and the Rd/Neutral record is close enough to 500 that a team with 6 wins vs the RPI top 50 will not be left out - despite not reaching 20 wins.
Bradley [19-9]; RPI 37; SOS 61; 6-5 vs RPI top 50; 3 bad losses [Loyola Chicago 137, Drake 174, Indiana State 158]; Out of conference RPI 41, SOS 134; 8-2 down the stretch; 6-8 Rd/Neutral.
Analysis: If selection sunday was today, Bradley would be in. The only negatives are the three bad losses and the Rd/Neutral record. There are also rocking down the stretch with the return of a key player. A win versus Wichita State today puts them in, while a loss would leave them on the bubble - and probably on the wrong side of it.
Southern Illinois [20-10]; RPI 44; SOS 71; 6-4 vs RPI top 50; 4 bad losses [Alaska-Anchorage (DII); Monmouth 172; Indiana State 158; Evansville 191]; Out of conference RPI 69, SOS 109; 5-5 down the stretch; 9-7 Rd/Neutral.
Analysis: This is a classic example of a bubbleicious resume as a result of bad losses, weak scheduling, and poor performance down the stretch. On my judgement we would NOT be in were today selection sunday. Furthermore, were SIU to lose today, we would do damage to all the other MVC resumes, as it would likely result in SIU dropping out of the RPI top 50. A win today would put SIU on the bubble as a result of its RPI top 50 and Rd/Neutral records, but not neccesarily on the right side of it. In other words, we need to win the tourney!
A final note to those who are pessimistic about the Selection Committee - I do not think we have anything to worry about - it is far more a matter of folklore than history that they have ****** the MVC in the past. Three MVC bubble teams from recent years illustrate this well:
Southern Illinois 2002 26-7 (received at-large bid)
RPI 50; SOS 154; 3-2 vs RPI top 50; 4 bad losses [Colorado State 162, Wichita State 167, Northern Iowa 168, SW Missouri State 145]; Out of conference RPI 38, SOS 136; 7-3 down the stretch; 13-7 Rd/Neutral.
Northern Iowa 2005 20-10 (received at-large bid)
RPI 37; SOS 74; 2-6 vs RPI top 50; 3 bad losses [Evansville 218, Bradley 142, Drake 146]; Out of conference RPI 19, SOS 118; 7-3 down the stretch; 8-8 Rd/Neutral.
Wichita State 2005 20-9 (no at-large bid)
RPI 45; SOS 88; 2-6 vs RPI top 50; 3 bad losses [Manhattan 187, Indiana State 202, Bradley 142]; Out of conference RPI 79, SOS 217; 4-6 down the stretch; 9-6 Rd/Neutral.
The resume's of each of the MVC teams, with the exception of SIU, compare FAVOURABLY with those of SIU 2002 and UNI 2005. Last year, Wichita State gave the committee SUBSTANTIVE reasons to leave them out, rather than reasons of mere perception.
The only real candidate for a recent MVC snubbee is SW Missouri State in 2000, but their resume from that year does not look nearly as good as, say, that of Bradley this year as a result of top 50 wins.
SW Missouri State 2000 22-10 (no at-large bid)
RPI 34; SOS 60; 2-4 vs RPI top 50; 4 bad losses [Missouri Kansas City 218, Illinois State 209, Bradley 110, Wichita State 184]; Out of conference RPI 41, SOS 28; 9-1 down the stretch; 10-8 Rd/Neutral.
We need to consider, however, that this came in a year when Indiana State DID get in with a bubbleicious resume:
Indiana State 2000 22-9 (received at-large bid)
RPI 47; SOS 100; 2-2 vs RPI top 50; 3 bad losses [George Washington 120, Austin Peay 153, Bradley 110]; Out of conference RPI 97, SOS 155; 6-4 down the stretch; 10-8 Rd/Neutral.
Even SIU's resume looks good compared to this. In other words, don't worry, be happy - UNI, WSU, and MSU are in, Creighton is on the right side of the bubble, Bradley could put themselves there, and an SIU win in the tourney could still give us 6 bids.
GO BRAVES!
GO VALLEY!
GO DAWGS!
Northern Iowa [23-8]; RPI 21; SOS 39; 8-6 vs RPI top 50; 1 bad loss [158 - Indiana State]; Out of conference RPI 4, SOS 36; 5-5 down the stretch; 10-5 Rd/Neutral.
Analysis: Comfortably in even with a loss against SIU. Despite the awful stretch run, there will not be many better at-large resumes than this, whatever the morons on ESPN's college gameday have to say.
Wichita State [24-7]; RPI 24; SOS 59; 6-7 vs RPI top 50; no bad losses; Out of conference RPI 62, SOS 78; 7-3 down the stretch; 10-5 Rd/Neutral.
Analysis: No blemishes on the resume - even with a loss against Bradley, WSU is as clear as locks get.
Missouri State [20-8]; RPI 25; SOS 45; 4-8 vs RPI top 50; no bad losses; Out of conference RPI 6, SOS 51; 8-2 down the stretch; 8-6 Rd/Neutral.
Analysis: Like UNI, Missouri State is comfortably in. The only negative is the record vs. RPI top 50, but this is mitigated by their lack of bad losses.
Creighton [19-9]; RPI 36; SOS 53; 6-6 vs RPI top 50; 2 bad losses [Chattanooga 176, Illinois State 226]; Out of conference RPI 24, SOS 84; 6-4 down the stretch; 5-8 Rd/Neutral.
Analysis: On the right side of the bubble - but will probably be forced to sweat things out until all of the 11 seeds are announced on Selection Sunday. The bad losses were early enough that they will not matter a great deal, and the Rd/Neutral record is close enough to 500 that a team with 6 wins vs the RPI top 50 will not be left out - despite not reaching 20 wins.
Bradley [19-9]; RPI 37; SOS 61; 6-5 vs RPI top 50; 3 bad losses [Loyola Chicago 137, Drake 174, Indiana State 158]; Out of conference RPI 41, SOS 134; 8-2 down the stretch; 6-8 Rd/Neutral.
Analysis: If selection sunday was today, Bradley would be in. The only negatives are the three bad losses and the Rd/Neutral record. There are also rocking down the stretch with the return of a key player. A win versus Wichita State today puts them in, while a loss would leave them on the bubble - and probably on the wrong side of it.
Southern Illinois [20-10]; RPI 44; SOS 71; 6-4 vs RPI top 50; 4 bad losses [Alaska-Anchorage (DII); Monmouth 172; Indiana State 158; Evansville 191]; Out of conference RPI 69, SOS 109; 5-5 down the stretch; 9-7 Rd/Neutral.
Analysis: This is a classic example of a bubbleicious resume as a result of bad losses, weak scheduling, and poor performance down the stretch. On my judgement we would NOT be in were today selection sunday. Furthermore, were SIU to lose today, we would do damage to all the other MVC resumes, as it would likely result in SIU dropping out of the RPI top 50. A win today would put SIU on the bubble as a result of its RPI top 50 and Rd/Neutral records, but not neccesarily on the right side of it. In other words, we need to win the tourney!
A final note to those who are pessimistic about the Selection Committee - I do not think we have anything to worry about - it is far more a matter of folklore than history that they have ****** the MVC in the past. Three MVC bubble teams from recent years illustrate this well:
Southern Illinois 2002 26-7 (received at-large bid)
RPI 50; SOS 154; 3-2 vs RPI top 50; 4 bad losses [Colorado State 162, Wichita State 167, Northern Iowa 168, SW Missouri State 145]; Out of conference RPI 38, SOS 136; 7-3 down the stretch; 13-7 Rd/Neutral.
Northern Iowa 2005 20-10 (received at-large bid)
RPI 37; SOS 74; 2-6 vs RPI top 50; 3 bad losses [Evansville 218, Bradley 142, Drake 146]; Out of conference RPI 19, SOS 118; 7-3 down the stretch; 8-8 Rd/Neutral.
Wichita State 2005 20-9 (no at-large bid)
RPI 45; SOS 88; 2-6 vs RPI top 50; 3 bad losses [Manhattan 187, Indiana State 202, Bradley 142]; Out of conference RPI 79, SOS 217; 4-6 down the stretch; 9-6 Rd/Neutral.
The resume's of each of the MVC teams, with the exception of SIU, compare FAVOURABLY with those of SIU 2002 and UNI 2005. Last year, Wichita State gave the committee SUBSTANTIVE reasons to leave them out, rather than reasons of mere perception.
The only real candidate for a recent MVC snubbee is SW Missouri State in 2000, but their resume from that year does not look nearly as good as, say, that of Bradley this year as a result of top 50 wins.
SW Missouri State 2000 22-10 (no at-large bid)
RPI 34; SOS 60; 2-4 vs RPI top 50; 4 bad losses [Missouri Kansas City 218, Illinois State 209, Bradley 110, Wichita State 184]; Out of conference RPI 41, SOS 28; 9-1 down the stretch; 10-8 Rd/Neutral.
We need to consider, however, that this came in a year when Indiana State DID get in with a bubbleicious resume:
Indiana State 2000 22-9 (received at-large bid)
RPI 47; SOS 100; 2-2 vs RPI top 50; 3 bad losses [George Washington 120, Austin Peay 153, Bradley 110]; Out of conference RPI 97, SOS 155; 6-4 down the stretch; 10-8 Rd/Neutral.
Even SIU's resume looks good compared to this. In other words, don't worry, be happy - UNI, WSU, and MSU are in, Creighton is on the right side of the bubble, Bradley could put themselves there, and an SIU win in the tourney could still give us 6 bids.
GO BRAVES!
GO VALLEY!
GO DAWGS!