MVC OCC predictions Pt. 4: MSU

[valleyclimber]

Here's my thoughts on the Bear chances against their OCC:

N11 Toledo at home W The Rockets have a good shot to win the MAC this season and represent that conference in the Big Dance. Toledo returns their top 12 players from a team that won 20 games last season. A tough game to start the season, but I see the Bears with a victory.

South Padre Island Invitational-2 games in Springfield, MO and 2 at South Padre.

N19 Delaware St. at home W A 21 game winner last season, the Hornets return in tact and should be "dancing" as the winner of the MEAC. Another good opponent right out of the gates.

N21 Lincoln at home W

at South Padre:

N24 Wisconsin L A legit top 10 team that many pick to win the Big 10, the Badgers present a tall order for the Bears. Wisconsin returns virtually all of last season's scoring punch and look to go deep into this season's NCAA tourney. Needless to say, a Bears upset win here would be a HUGE boost for their RPI and would really skyrocket MSU onto the national scene.

N25 either Auburn or OKlahoma St. W over either one of these teams. Auburn is a good team, but they play in the ultra-tough SEC and could finish toward the lower level. Oklahoma St. lost their coach (Kelvin Sampson who bolted to Indiana) and a couple of their better players, so they could fall down in the Big 12 pecking order. Still a win over a BCS school is always good.

N30 Alabama St. at home W

D2 Santa Clara at home W

D6 Wisconsin-Miwaukee at home W An NCAA tourney team last season (they won a game), UWM suffered big-time players losses and should be a mid-pack Horizon team this year.

D9 at UNC-Wilmington L Last year the Seahawks were a 25 game winner and a #9 seed in the Big Dance. They return a good chunk of that team and should challenge again for the top spot in the Colonial (same conference as George Mason). Real tough road test for MSU, but a win here would be a real feather in their cap come tourney selection time.

D18 at St. Louis U. L The Billikens program has come a long way in the past couple of years, and this season they should be a top contender for the Atlantic 10's bid to the tourney. SLU is loaded and this in-state rival will be out for blood against the Bears. Could go either way, but my head tells me to pick the Bills.

D22 at S. Florida W The Bulls ARE a Big East team, but they are pretty much the doormat of that conference. Would be a nice win over a Big East school. This could be a trap game for the Bears.

That puts the Bears at 8-3 in their OCC and assuming they are one of the top MVC contenders, then MSU should get a TV game against their BB foe.
Giving MSU a W in this game, so that puts them 9-3 in the non-con portion of their schedule. That's excellant considering that the Bears will be going up against alot of quality teams.

What do other Valley fans think of the Bear's OCC chances?

GO VALLEY!!! :boxing: :valley:

[douglasdmb]

N25 either Auburn or OKlahoma St. W over either one of these teams. Auburn is a good team, but they play in the ultra-tough SEC and could finish toward the lower level. Oklahoma St. lost their coach (Kelvin Sampson who bolted to Indiana) and a couple of their better players, so they could fall down in the Big 12 pecking order. Still a win over a BCS school is always good.

Sampson was the coach at Oklahoma, not Oklahoma State.

[DoubleJayAlum]

Sampson was the coach at Oklahoma, not Oklahoma State.

Yeah, Oklahoma State lost their coach to alcohol, not Indiana.

[valleyclimber]

Sorry guys....forgot it was Eddie Sutton that was coach at OK St. Now his son Sean has the Cowboy reigns.

Any thoughts on the Bears OCC?

[Hein72]

I think Sean Sutton has been doing most of the real coaching work the last few years any way. But to the Bears OCC, it looks realistic. I would say though that if I was a Bear after last years screwing I wouldnt really feal confident with my resume if we lost to SLU, UNC-Wilmington. A loss to these 2 would almost for sure put 2 teams over them in the at-large race; plus they need one of those or the Wisconsin game to have more key OCC wins.

[smsandmsuson]

Here's my thoughts on the Bear chances against their OCC:

N11 Toledo at home W The Rockets have a good shot to win the MAC this season and represent that conference in the Big Dance. Toledo returns their top 12 players from a team that won 20 games last season. A tough game to start the season, but I see the Bears with a victory.

South Padre Island Invitational-2 games in Springfield, MO and 2 at South Padre.

N19 Delaware St. at home W A 21 game winner last season, the Hornets return in tact and should be "dancing" as the winner of the MEAC. Another good opponent right out of the gates.

N21 Lincoln at home W

at South Padre:

N24 Wisconsin L A legit top 10 team that many pick to win the Big 10, the Badgers present a tall order for the Bears. Wisconsin returns virtually all of last season's scoring punch and look to go deep into this season's NCAA tourney. Needless to say, a Bears upset win here would be a HUGE boost for their RPI and would really skyrocket MSU onto the national scene.

N25 either Auburn or OKlahoma St. W over either one of these teams. Auburn is a good team, but they play in the ultra-tough SEC and could finish toward the lower level. Oklahoma St. lost their coach (Kelvin Sampson who bolted to Indiana) and a couple of their better players, so they could fall down in the Big 12 pecking order. Still a win over a BCS school is always good.

N30 Alabama St. at home W

D2 Santa Clara at home W

D6 Wisconsin-Miwaukee at home W An NCAA tourney team last season (they won a game), UWM suffered big-time players losses and should be a mid-pack Horizon team this year.

D9 at UNC-Wilmington L Last year the Seahawks were a 25 game winner and a #9 seed in the Big Dance. They return a good chunk of that team and should challenge again for the top spot in the Colonial (same conference as George Mason). Real tough road test for MSU, but a win here would be a real feather in their cap come tourney selection time.

D18 at St. Louis U. L The Billikens program has come a long way in the past couple of years, and this season they should be a top contender for the Atlantic 10's bid to the tourney. SLU is loaded and this in-state rival will be out for blood against the Bears. Could go either way, but my head tells me to pick the Bills.

D22 at S. Florida W The Bulls ARE a Big East team, but they are pretty much the doormat of that conference. Would be a nice win over a Big East school. This could be a trap game for the Bears.

That puts the Bears at 8-3 in their OCC and assuming they are one of the top MVC contenders, then MSU should get a TV game against their BB foe.
Giving MSU a W in this game, so that puts them 9-3 in the non-con portion of their schedule. That's excellant considering that the Bears will be going up against alot of quality teams.

What do other Valley fans think of the Bear's OCC chances?

GO VALLEY!!! :boxing: :valley:


Very good projections...i think that we will be at least 8-3, i hope just 10-1 but dont think 6-5 is out of the question(not counting the Lincoln game)...the latter wont take us to the Dance though...my biggest fear is Dec 9- Jan 2(5 of 6 are on the road)

Best case 22-7
Worst case 18-11(even if we do go 6-5 OCC, dont think we do any worse 12-6 in the league)

[Nyghtewynd]

If the Bears go 8-3 and lose to two mid-majors in UNC-W and SLU, their season is over until March. Unless they did something ridiculous like go 17-1 or something in conference, they'll have to win the conference tournament. The schedule just isn't good enough. Of course, no one at MSU has figured that out yet, but they still don't have a sports website (after 3 months), so that can't be much of a surprise.

[Hein72]

If the Bears go 8-3 and lose to two mid-majors in UNC-W and SLU, their season is over until March. Unless they did something ridiculous like go 17-1 or something in conference, they'll have to win the conference tournament. The schedule just isn't good enough. Of course, no one at MSU has figured that out yet, but they still don't have a sports website (after 3 months), so that can't be much of a surprise.

Exactly what I think and posted above.

[smsandmsuson]

If the Bears go 8-3 and lose to two mid-majors in UNC-W and SLU, their season is over until March. Unless they did something ridiculous like go 17-1 or something in conference, they'll have to win the conference tournament. The schedule just isn't good enough. Of course, no one at MSU has figured that out yet, but they still don't have a sports website (after 3 months), so that can't be much of a surprise.


I dont disagree but those three loses could very well be BCS teams, not saying that is any better but we wouldnt have a terrible lose on the schedule...even SLU and USF are suppose to decent so that could be two of the three as well...if we get to 20 wins before the MVC Tourney and WIN one we will be fine:ermm:

[BearsCountry]

Toledo W
Delaware State W
Lincoln W
Wisconsin L
Oklahoma State/Auburn W
Alabama State W
Santa Clara W
Wisconsin-Milwaukee W
UNC-Wilmington W
Saint Louis W
USF W

[valleyclimber]

BearsCountry, I like your take on MSU's OCC. I think the SLU and NC-Wilmington games are definiitely winnable. Also think that they'll be plenty of people discounting both the SLU and UNCW programs. Both of those teams will be near the top of their very good leagues.... SLU in the Atlantic 10 and UNCW in the Colonial. Both the A10 and Colonial are strong conferences, so losing a game on the road to either of these teams will not hurt the Bears RPI all that much if any.

But after last year's snub, the Bears should not leave anything to chance, so taking out BOTH SLU and UNCW would be to their advantage. However, I do think at least half of MSU's OCC will land in the season's top 100 RPI: Toledo, Delaware St., Wisconsin, UNCW, SLU, their as yet to be determined BB opponent, and Oklahoma St (which has a shot at the upper tier in the Big 12). Looks like a pretty decent non-con to me. :original:

[Nyghtewynd]

Will MVC fans please quit caring about the RPI? It doesn't matter for teams like MSU. There are exactly two games OOC that can benefit MSU: Wisconsin and Auburn/OSU. EVERY OTHER GAME can only hurt--it isn't going to help. That's why this schedule isn't good enough.

[douglasdmb]

Will MVC fans please quit caring about the RPI? It doesn't matter for teams like MSU. There are exactly two games OOC that can benefit MSU: Wisconsin and Auburn/OSU. EVERY OTHER GAME can only hurt--it isn't going to help. That's why this schedule isn't good enough.

While I do agree that the tournament committee only seems to care about who you beat (BCS teams) and not your RPI anymore, I don't think that the games against Wisconsin and Auburn/OSU are the only ones that matter. What if we beat Toledo and SLU, and both of them go on to win their respective conferences, which is fairly likely to happen? I know that neither team is would exactly provide a marquee win, but I think that these COULD carry more weight than our wins last year over Oral Roberts, Northern Illinois, and UW-M.

Obviously, winning at least one of the big San Padre games should be treated as a must, but I don't think they're the only ones in our non-conference schedule that we can gain from.

[Nyghtewynd]

While I do agree that the tournament committee only seems to care about who you beat (BCS teams) and not your RPI anymore, I don't think that the games against Wisconsin and Auburn/OSU are the only ones that matter. What if we beat Toledo and SLU, and both of them go on to win their respective conferences, which is fairly likely to happen? I know that neither team is would exactly provide a marquee win, but I think that these COULD carry more weight than our wins last year over Oral Roberts, Northern Illinois, and UW-M.

Obviously, winning at least one of the big San Padre games should be treated as a must, but I don't think they're the only ones in our non-conference schedule that we can gain from.

I think that those things are important, but it's obviously more than "big wins". If we beat Toledo and SLU, and those schools win conferences, SLU might show up under "big wins", but Toledo won't. None of those things will, except for Wisconsin and Auburn/OSU. If they beat Wisconsin, there's the big win. That might be enough to overcome a whole pile of losses, because Wisconsin will be really, REALLY good this year, and they might be the front-runner to win the Big 10. Neither Auburn or OSU may be much more than .500, but at least people have heard of them.

Once again, I'm not crazy about they way they did it, but WSU's schedule is what MSU's should look like. It proves that you can get that kind of schedule when you're an MVC school. But MSU never bothered to do it. The #1 problem the Bears have is *not* coaching--it's an absolutely clueless Athletic Department that hasn't the first clue how to run a D-1 program in the year 2006.