Team-by-Team Analysis - 1AA Playoff Picture

[SalukiProf]

NCAA 1-AA Playoff Picture

I will post a predicted field after the games next week.


Teams that are in: (4)

Appalachian State (10-1) Southern Conference Auto-Bid
The Mountaineers only loss came in their first game of the season against 1A North Carolina State. They top all the polls are the likely #1 seed in the South, and #1 seed overall.

Massachusetts (9-1) Atlantic 10 Auto-Bid
Massachusetts clinched the A10 bid with a 10-9 squeaker over Maine, and their only loss came against 1A Navy (by one point). Closing out the season with a win over cellar-dweller Hofstra will likely result in a #1 seed in the East region, and the #2 seed overall

Youngstown State (9-2) Gateway Auto-Bid
Youngstown State’s victory over Western Kentucky, along with Southern Illinois’ victory over Northern Iowa yielded the Penguins the Gateway auto-bid. They are the likely #1 seed in the Central region, and the #3 or #4 seed overall.

Hampton (10-1) Mid Eastern Auto-bid
The Pirates clinched the MEAC bid with a season-ending blowout of Florida A&M. A weak schedule means they will not be a contender for a top seed.


Locks (At-Large or Conference) (1)

Montana (9-1) Big Sky
A win over Montana State on Saturday will yield the Grizzlies the Big Sky auto-bid, and, in all likelihood, the #1 seed in the West region and the #3 or #4 seed overall. If they lose, they will receive at at-large bid, and, as the best team from the West, will probably still be seeded. Montana State (7-3) would take the Big Sky auto-bid with a win, but will be out of contention for an at-large bid should they lose.


Locks for At-Large Bids (4)

James Madison (8-2) Any 8-win team from a top conference will make it this year. Outside chance for a seed should they defeat Towson in their final game.

Illinois State (8-2) 8 wins. Nuf said. A win against Northern Iowa gives the Redbirds an outside chance for a seed.

Furman (8-3) 8 wins. Nuf said.

San Diego (10-0) Pioneer
It is very easy to sneer at San Diego’s schedule, but the Toreros have reached #13 in the GPI, and there is no way the committee will leave an undefeated team sitting on the sidelines.


Other Conference Auto-Bids (3)

Patriot League
Lehigh (6-4) at Lafayette (5-5). Winner takes all, as neither team is in contention for an at-large bid.

Southland
McNeese State (6-4) takes the auto-bid with a win over Nicholls State, OR a Sam Houston State loss.
Sam Houston State (6-4) takes the auto-bid with a win over Texas State AND a McNeese State loss.
Neither team is in contention for an at-large bid.

Ohio Valley
What a mess. There are three teams in contention, Tennessee Martin (8-2), Eastern Illinois (7-4), and Tennessee State (6-4). I have not been able to decipher the tie-breaker entirely, and the press reports have been contradictory. This only has a wider impact should Tennessee Martin win on Saturday, but NOT win the OVC auto-bid, as they are the only At-Large contender in the bunch.


Remaining At-Large Slots (3 or 4, pending outcome of the Montana-Montana State game)

A likely elimination game:
Coastal Carolina (8-2) hosts Charleston Southern (9-1) to decide the Big South title, and the winner will likely receive an at-large bid.

This leaves 2 or 3 slots open, with 6 or 7 teams on the bubble.

New Hampshire (7-3) travels to Maine (6-4) to close out the season for both teams. A New Hampshire win will clinch them an At-Large slot. A Maine win eliminates New Hampshire, and its lofty GPI (#11) raises the possibility that the Black Bears could sneak in to one of the final at-large slots despite its 4 losses.

Towson (7-3) face A10 south champ James Madison at home, and a win will almost certainly earn them an at-large bid. Lose and they are out.

Southern Illinois (7-3) hosts Southern Utah to close out the regular season. A loss eliminates the Salukis, but with a win they will likely make it in on the strength of their win over 1AA Indiana earlier in the season. The cloud in the silver lining is that no Gateway team has ever been selected to an at-large slot with three conference losses.

Tennessee Martin (8-2) travels to cellar-dwelling Murray State to close out their regular season. If they do not take the Ohio Valley auto-bid, a win will likely garner them at at-large bid.

Portland State (7-4) has a reasonable chance of becoming the first 4-loss team since 1995 to win a bid to the 1AA playoffs. Its four losses came against two ranked 1A opponents (#21 California and #25 Oregon), and two ranked 1AA opponents (#2 Montana and #13 Montana State). As a four-loss team they would have a better case than Maine.

Despite its weak schedule, Monmouth (10-1) could sneak in to an at-large spot even if some of the other contenders do not slip up.

[skinny_uncle]

Charleston Southern may be 9-1, but 4 of those wins came against lower division teams. They will not get a bid, win or lose, as their league is too small to get an qutobid. Coastal Carolina will probably get a bid if they win. I doubt if either San Diego or Monmouth are really in the running due to "strength of schedule". The OVC could literally come down to a coin flip.

[Lurking Dog]

I hope you're right about San Diego, but the committee has frequently left out undefeated teams over the years, including Sacred Heart, Dayton, and Davidson.

Patty Viverito basically said a 7-4 UNI deserves to be in ahead of San Diego (Des Moines Register this morning). Y'all will undoubtedly agree with her. I don't.

[SalukiProf]

Charleston Southern may be 9-1, but 4 of those wins came against lower division teams. They will not get a bid, win or lose, as their league is too small to get an qutobid. Coastal Carolina will probably get a bid if they win. I doubt if either San Diego or Monmouth are really in the running due to "strength of schedule".

It might be useful to review the official, and unofficial rules which the Committee follows:

"1. The committee shall select the best teams available on a national at-large basis to complete the bracket;"

If only they did. Ask Youngstown State last year, who lost out last year to Lehigh, a team with an identical record, but with a much weaker schedule, from a much weaker conference. They ran into the two most important unofficial rules:

I. The official rules can be ignored if we feel like it.
II. Share the wealth, by spreading out at-large bids through as many conferences as possible.

"2. There is no limit to the number of teams the committee may select from one conference;"

True, but see unofficial rule II.

"3. The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength of schedule; however, less than seven Division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of not being selected;
4. The committee may give more consideration to those teams that have played all Division I opponents."

This the context to consider the potential bids of San Diego, Charleston Southern, and Monmouth.


San Diego 10-0
NAIA wins (1): Azusa Pacific
DII wins (1): Dixie State
1AA wins (8): Yale, Davidson, Butler, Valparaiso, Drake, Morehead State, Jacksonville, Dayton

Given the 8 1AA wins, a GPI of 13, and the perceived unfairness of leaving an undefeated team out of the tournament, my judgment is that San Diego is in. The only thing that hurts them is official rule #4.


Charleston Southern 9-1
NAIA wins: Edward Waters
DII wins: Presbyterian, Wingate, North Greenville
1AA wins: Citadel, Savannah State, Virginia Military, Georgetown, Gardner-Webb
1AA losses: Liberty

A win over Coastal Carolina would give Charleston Southern a 10-1 record, with 6 wins over 1AA opponents. Note closely the language in rule #3, “less than seven Division I wins MAY place a team in jeopardy of not being selected”. In other words, less than seven wins is desirable but not necessary, and it should be noted that all of their DII wins were against top-shelf opponents. Rule #4 hurts, and it is correct that the Big South does not warrant an auto-bid. But with the two top Big South teams playing in the final game of the season, I would bet that the winner gets in, despite the flaws in Charleston Southern’s resume.


Monmouth 10-1
1AA wins: Fordham, Morgan State, St. Peters, Colgate, Sacred Hearth, Wagner, Robert Morris, Central Connecticut, St. Francis, Albany
1AA losses: Stony Brook

Monmouth gamed the system by scheduling very weak 1AA opponents in their non-conference schedule, but this gives them positive consideration under Rule #4. As Northeast Conference champions riding a 6-game winning streak my judgement is that they will, at minimum, be in the conversation in the selection committee, and could very well snag a bid.


The OVC could literally come down to a coin flip.

Figuring out all of the permutations would be such a pain in the *** that it is much easier to wait and see how things pan out on Saturday.

[SalukiProf]

Patty Viverito basically said a 7-4 UNI deserves to be in ahead of San Diego (Des Moines Register this morning). Y'all will undoubtedly agree with her. I don't.

Patty Viverito is doing her job admirably. I agree with you that she is wrong. In any case, Portland State is already a much more attractive 7-4 team than Northern Iowa would be. A 7-4 Maine would probably get the nod over a 7-4 Northern Iowa as well.

[Khan4Cats]

Patty Viverito is doing her job admirably. I agree with you that she is wrong. In any case, Portland State is already a much more attractive 7-4 team than Northern Iowa would be. A 7-4 Maine would probably get the nod over a 7-4 Northern Iowa as well.

While agree that Portland State may have the best at 7-4 record, Maine will not make it at 7-4, one win was against a non D-I. UNI would be 7-4, all D-I wins (and yes, I know we have a D-II loss).
A Maine win could foul things up for the A-10 to get more than two if Towson also loses. That would throw UNI into a 7-4 conversation including Towson, UNH, maybe Montana State and Wofford. And that is still assuming a Saluki win or they are out as well. But I just don't see that happening. Wow, that could mean only two each from the Gateway and A-10.:shocking:

I will be there cheering on our seniors and hoping for some craziness to live another day. :panthers:

[underdawg2]

Patty Viverito is doing her job admirably. I agree with you that she is wrong. In any case, Portland State is already a much more attractive 7-4 team than Northern Iowa would be. A 7-4 Maine would probably get the nod over a 7-4 Northern Iowa as well.

I don't know where you guys are coming from, But I'd bet the house on UNI beating San Diego any day--SD schedule is a joke
:lol:

[SalukiProf]

Maine will not make it at 7-4, one win was against a non D-I.

Missed that. :banghead: My bad.

[MSNSaluki]

I'm not gonna nitpik you, SalukiProf ... great work.
I've been looking all over for this kind of info.:salukis:

[Bisonfan]

I disagree about USD I think they are out unless they get a lot of help this weekend because their SOS is just horrible. I know you said rule #4 hurts them but rule #3 hurts them as well...

"3. The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength of schedule; however, less than seven Division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of not being selected;

In the committee's eyes USD will be an 8-0 team that has one of the worst SOS's in the country. The 8 I-AA teams they have played have an average GPI rank of 94.25 out of 122, you say it's unfair to leave them out I say it's unfair to put them in since they have not proven themsleves. They got left out of the playoffs due to a horrible schedule last year and instead of learning their lesson and scheduling up they made an even weaker schedule this year. USD will have nobody to blame but themselves if they miss the playoffs and if you don't believe listen to what highly respected I-AA Coach Bob Biggs of UC Davis has to say about their playoff chances...."I don't think their schedule is strong enough to warrant them getting into the playoffs, there'd be too much of an uproar by the I-AA coaches everybody would try to schedule that kind of schedule to try to get in the playoffs."

[SalukiProf]

I'm not gonna nitpik you, SalukiProf ... great work.
I've been looking all over for this kind of info.:salukis:

Oh, go ahead, everyone else is. :helpsmilie:

Just kidding; thanks for you kind words. Naturally, my profession means that I am used to peer review, and you can all say "I told you so" if San Diego does not get a bid.

[Lurking Dog]

Let's not overlook the forest because of the trees. I believe the committee isn't trying to pick the teams with best schedules, but rather the best teams.

If Appalachain State played USD's schedule, I wouldn't rule them out of the playoffs, either. They would have to look like a playoff team playing a weak schedule, which is exactly what USD looks like.

[skinny_uncle]

Patty Viverito is doing her job admirably. I agree with you that she is wrong. In any case, Portland State is already a much more attractive 7-4 team than Northern Iowa would be. A 7-4 Maine would probably get the nod over a 7-4 Northern Iowa as well.
A 7-4 Maine (assuming they beat UNH Saturday) would still onlyhave 6 DI wins. One of their wins was over Shaw which is not a DI.
The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength of schedule; however, less than seven Division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of not being selected;
Teams with less than 7 wins never get in unless they acquire an autobid. It has been at least a decade since a 7-4 team made the field as an at-large bid. Portland State would probably get in ahead of UNI if it came down to them as the last 2 teams considered. UNH might get a shot even at 7-4 since they have played an all DI schedule.
4. The committee may give more consideration to those teams that have played all Division I opponents."

[skinny_uncle]

Oh, go ahead, everyone else is. :helpsmilie:

Just kidding; thanks for you kind words. Naturally, my profession means that I am used to peer review, and you can all say "I told you so" if San Diego does not get a bid.
Any idea what San Diego plans to do about the game scheduled with Cal-Davis that is scheduled for Nov. 25? It would be in direct conflict with the opening round of the playoffs.

[Lurking Dog]

They'll cancel the Cal Poly game if invited to the playoffs.

[Lurking Dog]

I meant UC Davis.

[goshoxgo]

Hey Bisonfan,

Is NDSU not eligible for post season play yet? I can't think of another reason why they would be left out.

[SalukiProf]

Is NDSU not eligible for post season play yet? I can't think of another reason why they would be left out.

Both NDSU and SDSU are ineligible, otherwise NDSU would be in, probably with a seed, and SDSU would be in the conversation.

[Bisonfan]

Hey Bisonfan,

Is NDSU not eligible for post season play yet? I can't think of another reason why they would be left out.

Yeah, we are still ineligible this year and next year as well. It sucks but I guess we knew the rules going in.

[cpacmel]

Ohio Valley
What a mess. There are three teams in contention, Tennessee Martin (8-2), Eastern Illinois (7-4), and Tennessee State (6-4). I have not been able to decipher the tie-breaker entirely, and the press reports have been contradictory. This only has a wider impact should Tennessee Martin win on Saturday, but NOT win the OVC auto-bid, as they are the only At-Large contender in the bunch.


I can shed some light here.

f Eastern Illinois, UT-Martin and Tennessee State all win, the Panthers earn the automatic spot with an 8-4 record and the Skyhawks likely earn an at-large spot with a 9-2 record. Wins by both of those teams and a loss by Tennessee State gives UT-Martin the automatic spot and pushes the Panthers into playoff limbo with the other four-loss teams and squads with shiny records against soft schedules.

All 3 have pretty easy games. Count on EIU getting the Auto-Bid and UT-Martin getting an at-large.

[cpacmel]

Actually if I look alittle closer, EIU and Tenn-State have somewhat difficult games. (Jacksonville State and E. Kentucky.)

While Tenn-Martin has a pretty easy game against Murray State.

Gonna be crazy

[SalukiProf]

If Eastern Illinois, UT-Martin and Tennessee State all win, the Panthers earn the automatic spot with an 8-4 record and the Skyhawks likely earn an at-large spot with a 9-2 record. Wins by both of those teams and a loss by Tennessee State gives UT-Martin the automatic spot and pushes the Panthers into playoff limbo with the other four-loss teams and squads with shiny records against soft schedules.

Those look like the two most likely scenarios.

The other two most consequential scenarios would be:
a Tennessee St. win, an E. Illinois loss, and and UT-Martin loss, yielding a Tennessee St. auto-bid;
a Jacksonville State win, a UT-Martin loss, and a Tennessee St. loss, yielding a Jacksonville State auto-bid.

Either of these scenarios would raise the question of whether an 8-3 UT-Martin would get an at-large.

[MSNSaluki]

I can shed some light here.

f Eastern Illinois, UT-Martin and Tennessee State all win, the Panthers earn the automatic spot with an 8-4 record and the Skyhawks likely earn an at-large spot with a 9-2 record. Wins by both of those teams and a loss by Tennessee State gives UT-Martin the automatic spot and pushes the Panthers into playoff limbo with the other four-loss teams and squads with shiny records against soft schedules.

All 3 have pretty easy games. Count on EIU getting the Auto-Bid and UT-Martin getting an at-large.

Tennessee State doesn't have an easy game at all.
The Tigers play at Eastern Kentucky, the preseason favorite, which has won 5 of its last 6 games including last week at Martin.
That's why Martin, if it can take care of business, is still in the driver's seat for the auto bid and why EIU is probably gonna be out of luck.

[cpacmel]

Tennessee State doesn't have an easy game at all.
The Tigers play at Eastern Kentucky, the preseason favorite, which has won 5 of its last 6 games including last week at Martin.
That's why Martin, if it can take care of business, is still in the driver's seat for the auto bid and why EIU is probably gonna be out of luck.

Joey, I ammended my post. If you look above you will see it.

EKU just beat Tenn-Martin too.

[skinny_uncle]

Tennessee State doesn't have an easy game at all.
The Tigers play at Eastern Kentucky, the preseason favorite, which has won 5 of its last 6 games including last week at Martin.
That's why Martin, if it can take care of business, is still in the driver's seat for the auto bid and why EIU is probably gonna be out of luck.
Martin has the easiest final game with their matchup with Murray State (1-9). I'll be durned if I can figure out this league. Even with a win, Tennessee State would only have a 7-4 record, so their only realistic shot is an autobid which means they would have to win and both EIU and Martin would have to lose. Pretty slim odds for them.

[MSNSaluki]

Joey, I ammended my post. If you look above you will see it.

EKU just beat Tenn-Martin too.

I got ya!:original:
When I made my post this afternoon your amendment was nowhere to be found. Now, I check back later and you corrected yourself before my reply was even posted.