Jamarotology: 2006-2007 [Archive]

Jamar Howard 4 President

01-12-2007, 10:53 PM

It's back!!!! :clap:

Please let me know if you see any obvious errors. I'd also love to hear your opinions, but at this stage, I mostly need to make sure that I didn't make any obvious mistakes. Updating is always easier than creating the first list.

Through games of Friday, January 12:

1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Sunbelt, SWAC

Locks (9):
Arizona, Clemson, Kansas, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, UCLA, Wisconsin

Almost Locks (19):
Air Force, Alabama, Arkansas, Butler, Duke, Indiana, Kentucky, LSU, Maryland, Missouri State, Nevada, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, USC, Washington State

Comfortably In (9):
Creighton, Florida State, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Memphis, Purdue, Southern Illinois, UNLV, West Virginia

In for now (5):
Marquette, Michigan, Michigan State, Northern Iowa, Xavier

Last 6 in (6):
Gonzaga, Indiana State, Syracuse, Texas Tech, Virginia Tech, Wichita State

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - cut line - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Last 8 out:
Boston College, Bradley, Connecticut, Drexel, Illinois, Providence, Villanova, Washington

Still in the running (9):
BYU, California, Dayton, Missouri, New Mexico State, Oklahoma, Santa Clara, South Carolina, Virginia

NOTES: I have 3 Valley teams on the bubble at the moment. By putting 2 in, I have 6 bids for the MVC. I think 5 is most likely when it is all said and done, but 6 isn't out of the question. There seems to be a surprisingly small number of bubble teams this year. The list of teams still in the running is much shorter than it was this time last year. There are a few teams (Appalachian State, Kansas State, DePaul, Nebraska, etc.) that could make a run, but right now, they have an awful lot of work to do, so I didn't list them at all. Expect no more than 1 or 2 of these unlisted teams to get any serious bubble talk come March.

TrueBlueJay

01-12-2007, 11:01 PM

Good efforts again Jamar - agree or not, I like the work you do.

By the way, now that you have officially released your Jamarotology, you are now allowed back to the Bluejay Cafe. :cheers:

Khan4Cats

01-12-2007, 11:02 PM

MoValley John

01-12-2007, 11:03 PM

I would move Creighton to the "In for now" catagory. Other than that, it looks pretty good.

creightonfever

01-12-2007, 11:09 PM

I would move Creighton to the "In for now" catagory. Other than that, it looks pretty good.

I agree... If the jays can pull off a win at WSU this monday I think we move to comfortably in

Hail Red & White

01-12-2007, 11:12 PM

I don't think the Southern Conference has ever had 2 teams in the NCAA tournament. For it to happen this year, I think Davidson and Appalachian State must run the table in their divisions, and whichever loses the regular season matchup, must beat the other team in the SoCon championship. Anything short of that scenario probably only spells 1 bid for this league. App State had a nice showing at the San Juan Shootout in December as the Mountaineers beat out 7 other teams for the title. Davidson traditionally has been solid under the direction of Coach McKillop who has turned down other higher profile jobs to stay with the Wildcats. Even though Drexel lost a heartbreaker to Hofstra on Thursday, the Dragons could become one of two CAA teams to make it onto the Selection Sunday boards, but it's still early in conference play there too, and VCU, Old Dominion, and GMU may have a say in the matter before all is said and done. William & Mary still being in contention in the CAA at this point in time is quite shocking. Looks like another intriguing college basketball season.

DoubleJayAlum

01-12-2007, 11:20 PM

Good job Jamar. I agree that CU should be listed in the "in for now" category as well.

BTW - what's with all the font sizes in your list...

Good efforts again Jamar - agree or not, I like the work you do.

By the way, now that you have officially released your Jamarotology, you are now allowed back to the Bluejay Cafe. :cheers:

Now, lets not get carried away :lol:

tennis08tarheels

01-12-2007, 11:26 PM

I have a question on your thoughts about Appalachian State out of the Southern Conference. They are currently around 10 in RPI with a top-25 SOS. If they have a decent conference record, say 75%, due they have a chance at an at-large? Davidson is another team from that conference that had a nice non-conference record, could that conference sneak both of those teams, say if they wind up against each other in their tourney? Just interested in your (or anyones) take.

Davidson and Appalachian play each other on January 20th, at Belk Arena in Davidson. Each team will be favored in every other game they play this year.

About Appalachian...I'm really not that worried about them. They've never been a really great program. Appalachian has two tremendous players (D.J. Thompson and UVa transfer Donte Minter), and they had one hot week in San Juan). My father went to Appalachian, and they're probably my second-favorite team in the NCAA's. But I really don't think that they have the type of program that Davidson does. Anything less than 18-0 in the SoCon this year, for us, will be complete failure.

The Mounties should enjoy the spotlight (and the bandwagoners) while they have it.

About the projections.

Oklahoma shouldn't even be mentioned.
Marquette shouldn't be in the tourney.
Neither should Syracuse (I don't care how good Drexel is, you don't lose at home to them).
Connecticut shouldn't be mentioned.
Good pick on USC, they're a great team.
I might put Maryland, Tennesee, and Texas one section down.
Georgia Tech should be in, but not comfortably.

Jamar Howard 4 President

01-13-2007, 12:03 AM

I have a question on your thoughts about Appalachian State out of the Southern Conference. They are currently around 10 in RPI with a top-25 SOS. If they have a decent conference record, say 75%, due they have a chance at an at-large? Davidson is another team from that conference that had a nice non-conference record, could that conference sneak both of those teams, say if they wind up against each other in their tourney? Just interested in your (or anyones) take.

App St will suffer a major RPI hit by playing their conference schedule, which other than Davidson, is mostly 200+ RPI teams. Wins over Virginia, Vanderbilt, and Virginia Commonwealth won't be good enough to get them a bid with losses at Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest. (Wake Forest is not good this year)

Going undefeated until the conf champ game would put them 28-4. That would be the only way they would have any hope with such a lousy schedule and no real marque wins at all. They have yet to beat a likely NCAA atlarge team, and they don't even have another one on their schedule.

Look back a few years at Utah State. They went 24-3 and missed the NCAA tourney. App St. needs to run the table just to get to the point where Utah State was that year.

Davidson is basically in the same boat. They just don't have quite as bloated RPI at the moment.

tennis08tarheels

01-13-2007, 12:05 AM

They have yet to beat a likely NCAA atlarge team, and they don't even have another one on their schedule.

I'm pretty sure the Mounties have a Bracket Buster.

smacktalkermsu

01-13-2007, 12:08 AM

clemson screams FRAUD!!!!! is it just me?

tennis08tarheels

01-13-2007, 12:10 AM

clemson screams FRAUD!!!!! is it just me?
It's just you. A fraud would've lost at FSU a week or two ago. Frankly, I expected Clemson to.

Jamar Howard 4 President

01-13-2007, 12:14 AM

Oklahoma shouldn't even be mentioned.
Marquette shouldn't be in the tourney.
Neither should Syracuse (I don't care how good Drexel is, you don't lose at home to them).
Connecticut shouldn't be mentioned.
Good pick on USC, they're a great team.
I might put Maryland, Tennesee, and Texas one section down.
Georgia Tech should be in, but not comfortably.

OU has lost 5 games, all to top 50 competition. They haven't done too much damage so far, and the big 12 will give them chances for some good wins. Notice, I still have them well off the bubble.

Marquette: A win at UConn and poundings of Duke and Texas Tech are impressive. Only 1 bad loss so far.

UConn: They don't deserve a bid at this point, but they do deserve mentioning. All their losses have really shown is that they aren't top 25 material like people thought they were. There is still plenty of reason to think they will be in the hunt for an atlarge bid.

Jamar Howard 4 President

01-13-2007, 12:17 AM

smacktalkermsu

01-13-2007, 12:19 AM

Clemson......Their OOC schedule looks kind of like MSU's last season.......a lot of solid teams but no great wins. App. State will be in the 50's - 60's of the RPI soon enough.

I don't like to be a hater but i'll wait until Clemson plays their Next 4 games before i change my opinion.

@ Maryland
UNC
BC
@ Duke

I believe Duke is no better than a 4 seed this year.....and i think clemson is a 5-6 seed at best.......My brother in Law is a clemson Grad and he keeps telling me it won't last. We'll see.

tennis08tarheels

01-13-2007, 12:21 AM

Marquette: A win at UConn and poundings of Duke and Texas Tech are impressive. Only 1 bad loss so far.

For the record, I consider @Providence and vs. Syracuse bad losses.

And they don't really win in style, either.

Home game vs. Hillsdale (who?) = 10 point win
Home game vs. Idaho St. = 3 point win
Road game vs. Valpo = 3 point win

Another team bore remarkable similarities to Marquette at the beginning of this year, as far as strength of victory.

Washington.

Where are they now? 1-4, and in the Pac-10 cellar.

Nyghtewynd

01-13-2007, 12:24 AM

I feel a complete UConn washout coming on. Their early-season schedule was just WAY too easy, and real life has punched them right in the throat. A sub-.500 conference record would not be a surprise.

smacktalkermsu

01-13-2007, 12:32 AM

I feel a complete UConn washout coming on. Their early-season schedule was just WAY too easy, and real life has punched them right in the throat. A sub-.500 conference record would not be a surprise.

I have a very nasty feeling in my stomach that even if Uconn is 7-9 with one win in the Conf. Tourney they will still get in. And if Clemson is 7-9 with a first round loss in the ACC I think they get in.

No Big 10, Big 12, MVC team would get this same treatment.

Truth is i can't remember a 22 win BCS team that didn't get in. Why do you think they schedule so many cupcakes......$, and postseason bids. Sad but true.

MSU Bleeds Maroon

01-13-2007, 03:15 AM

I'm pretty sure the Mounties have a Bracket Buster.

If so, they aren't guaranteed an atlarge condending opponent... not with all the other good teams involved with Bracket Busters. Even if they do get a good draw, the overall scenario required for them to get an atlarge bid is only a very remote possibility.

Appalachian State has six games before 1/29, when the BB matchups are released. If they go 6-0, or 5-1 with the loss being to Davidson, their RPI won't fall tremendously before the brackets are announced.

App State is currently the top-rated "road" team for this year's BB. 3 of the next 4 road teams are from the Valley.

Butler is currently the top-rated home team; the next 4 are Valley teams.

Sending App State to Butler creates more problems than it solves, with respect to Valley teams not facing one another. More likely, I think, that someone like SIU travels to Hinkle Fieldhouse, and App State gets a trip to Omaha or Wichita. And a road win in one of those buildings would put Appalachian State right back into the at-large conversation if they swept their remaining regular-season slate.

DoubleJayAlum

01-13-2007, 09:37 AM

Appalachian State has six games before 1/29, when the BB matchups are released. If they go 6-0, or 5-1 with the loss being to Davidson, their RPI won't fall tremendously before the brackets are announced.

App State is currently the top-rated "road" team for this year's BB. 3 of the next 4 road teams are from the Valley.

Butler is currently the top-rated home team; the next 4 are Valley teams.

Sending App State to Butler creates more problems than it solves, with respect to Valley teams not facing one another. More likely, I think, that someone like SIU travels to Hinkle Fieldhouse, and App State gets a trip to Omaha or Wichita. And a road win in one of those buildings would put Appalachian State right back into the at-large conversation if they swept their remaining regular-season slate.

Do you have a link to the BB participants? (I don't doubt your analysis, I'd just like to see the list of competitors).

I also beleive that Nevada is hosting a BB game. If they survive while Fazekas is banged up and are still ranked, don't be surprised to see SIu or UNI making a trip to Reno for the BB game. Both Valley teams matche up very well with Nevada and a win would look quite good to the MVC.

Jamar Howard 4 President

01-13-2007, 10:51 AM

App St's opponents so far have a combined record of 106-69
At the moment, their next 6 opponents have a record of 32-51
Aside from the fact that their opponents will also play games between now and then, this takes their opps winning % down from .606 to .535. Since opps winning % is 50% of the RPI formula, this is a drop of .036 in the RPI.
6 more wins would raise their own record portion (25% of the RPI) by about .01. Assuming their opps opps stay about the same, this is a net drop of .026 in the RPI, which today, corresponds to dropping from 11 to 25.

I guess there may be some hope for them to a decent bracket buster game. The main problem will be that even with it, I can't really see their RPI staying in the top 50 by the end of the year.

If they win out through their game at Davidson, I'll add them to my list of "still in the running" teams. Their next loss will probably eliminate them for good.

Jamar Howard 4 President

01-13-2007, 10:56 AM

Do you have a link to the BB participants? (I don't doubt your analysis, I'd just like to see the list of competitors).

Bracket Buster Teams (http://www.collegehoopsnet.com/new/node/140)

MoValley John

01-13-2007, 11:00 AM

Has Creighton ever played a road game in the Bracket Buster?

cbjay

01-13-2007, 11:08 AM

Has Creighton ever played a road game in the Bracket Buster?
Kent State three years ago.

MSU Bleeds Maroon

01-13-2007, 02:20 PM

As of right now.....

Top Seven BB Home Teams (w/ Kenpom RPI):
Butler - 10
Missouri State - 14
Creighton - 24
Indiana State - 35
Wichita State - 52
Hofstra - 53
Nevada - 57

Top Seven BB Road Teams:
Appalachian State - 11
Southern Illinois - 17
Drexel - 25
Bradley - 34
Northern Iowa - 55
Ohio - 58
Winthrop - 60

The Valley home teams aren't getting any help this year.

TheAsianSensation

01-13-2007, 02:49 PM

It's early, so it tough to argue with anything that you said.

It'll be interesting to see how the Southern Conference holds up. That's some hell of an anomaly they've got with Appalachian St right now.

Outside of the usual 6 BCS conferences, us, and the Mountain West, I don't see an at-large bid anywhere unless someone like Memphis or Gonzaga tanks their conference tourney. We'll get 5 in unless we start seeing the squeeze play from the Gonzagas and Memphises losing.

The real question is how it'll effect seeding. If we don't get one team out frontrunning, it's possible we may get as many as 6 in but have none of them be a protected seed.

p.s. Jamar. You need a Colonial team in your field of 65. Drexel is an obvious at-large candidate but you have them out as of now and no Colonial represenative inside of the field.

MVC Fan

01-13-2007, 04:39 PM

Another thing about Appalachian State...they played 3 non-Division I opponents. That will very likely hurt them (or at least should) because traditionally the committee has docked teams heavily for lots of non-D I games. That could very well (and probably should) offset whatever high RPI they end up with.

Of course, after last yr's committee, who knows how they'll treat them...

Jamar Howard 4 President

01-13-2007, 04:45 PM

p.s. Jamar. You need a Colonial team in your field of 65. Drexel is an obvious at-large candidate but you have them out as of now and no Colonial represenative inside of the field.

The Colonial is the 14th ranked conference in the country with 3 or 4 NIT contenders. Drexel is really the only team with a realistic chance of making a run at an atlarge, and at the moment, I'm still doubtful. My bet is that the conference will see 2 or 3 in the NIT, and that will be it (other than the 1 auto bid)

tennis08tarheels

01-13-2007, 04:51 PM

Well, disregard everything about Appalachian getting an at-large. They just lost to Elon at home. Total collapse against the worst team in the SoCon.

Nyghtewynd

01-13-2007, 04:56 PM

Aren't they the Fighting Christians?

barkeep1967

01-13-2007, 05:07 PM

ELON 64 @ APP State 63

Bye bye rpi bye bye App State All the way down to 39 on realtime

TheAsianSensation

01-13-2007, 05:29 PM

Losing at home to the #304 RPI team isn't conducive to having a high RPI.

Well that ends that discussion. I still think if one of those teams can get to 15-1, they'll at least force the committee to look at them, and after the rumors that Western Kentucky was the last one out last year, it warrants monitoring.

The Colonial is the 14th ranked conference in the country with 3 or 4 NIT contenders. Drexel is really the only team with a realistic chance of making a run at an atlarge, and at the moment, I'm still doubtful. My bet is that the conference will see 2 or 3 in the NIT, and that will be it (other than the 1 auto bid)

Yeah, the Colonial will probably be a one-bid league, because it's probably too tough for Drexel to come close to running the table in that conference. Hofstra really shot itself in the foot in the non-con this year.

We're looking at a distinct possibility of just 8 leagues with multiple bids, with a 2-bid Mountain West being one of them. The big boys will feast this year.

tennis08tarheels

01-13-2007, 10:36 PM

We're looking at a distinct possibility of just 8 leagues with multiple bids, with a 2-bid Mountain West being one of them. The big boys will feast this year.

I could see Fresno State or New Mexico State possibly getting an at-large from the WAC.

TheAsianSensation

01-13-2007, 11:20 PM

I could see Fresno State or New Mexico State possibly getting an at-large from the WAC.

It's possible, considering the Utah St case last year. However, both have work to do on their RPI and will probably at least 12-4 to get into the picture. NMSU's non-con resume basically amounts to losing to Arizona and doing relatively well with a rather weak schedule (no other RPI top 100 opponents). Fresno St has the same problem as NMSU, but at least they have the win over Creighton and split over 2 Pac 10 teams that will probably finish in the bottom half (beat Oregon St, lost to Stanford).

They do have a smattering of teams with RPIs hovering around 80-90. So if one of those can get to 12-4 or better, being in the #9 RPI conference, perhaps. But there's a lot of work for them to do to get to that point as of now.

hro

01-14-2007, 05:32 PM

I could see Fresno State or New Mexico State possibly getting an at-large from the WAC.
A lot will be said of NMSU come January 20 when they host Nevada. I have seen three of their games in person (and will see the Nevada game) this year and they have a good mix of size as well as enough playmakers for them to play well down the stretch. Reggie Theus has done a damn good job of getting players to go down to Las Cruces and play for him. They will probably be in position to make a run for the top of the conference most of the season. In addition, they might be one of the teams that can possibly take the automatic bid from Nevada because the WAC Tournament will be at NMSU.

Hail Red & White

01-14-2007, 06:44 PM

I think New Mexico State has a better chance than Fresno, given the Bulldogs 64-61 loss at WAC bottom feeders San Jose State Saturday. For them to warrant serious consideration, they'd have to win the regular season title prior to the WAC tournament. For now, it's Nevada's to lose, but they will be pushed by NMSU and possibly Utah State. Fresno State plays in Reno later this week, so we'll see how they respond to Saturday's unexpected loss. The Wolf Pack have played well despite Fazekas being sidelined with his ankle injury. They could be a tough out come tourney time.

smsandmsuson

01-14-2007, 08:49 PM

The WAC will have one bid if Nevada doesnt screw things up. Utah State or New Mexico State will end up losing to someone they shouldnt and shoot themselves in the foot.

Can you imagine 23 one bid leagues? If the "bigger" dont come out and get teams in with RPIs in the 50's and the Valley can keep 5 in the top 40, we could be setting another record.

MSNSaluki

01-14-2007, 11:49 PM

MVC Fan

01-15-2007, 12:15 AM

The WAC will have one bid if Nevada doesnt screw things up. Utah State or New Mexico State will end up losing to someone they shouldnt and shoot themselves in the foot.

Is the WAC commish on the selection committee again this yr? If he is, expect him to get one of their teams in again if they're anywhere close.

I don't think anyone likes to push conspiracy theories (at least i don't) but last yr's committee proved that we can't underestimate the possibility of nepotism in the selections. Conferences that were represented on the committee (Pac-10, WAC, Mtn. West, CAA) all received very favorable treatment either on the bubble or in seedings.

MSNSaluki

01-15-2007, 02:08 AM

Is the WAC commish on the selection committee again this yr? If he is, expect him to get one of their teams in again if they're anywhere close.

I don't think anyone likes to push conspiracy theories (at least i don't) but last yr's committee proved that we can't underestimate the possibility of nepotism in the selections. Conferences that were represented on the committee (Pac-10, WAC, Mtn. West, CAA) all received very favorable treatment either on the bubble or in seedings.

I don't think there's any doubt the members of the selectiom committee take care of each other.
They can talk all they want about having to leave the room when a team from their conference is on the board but it's BS.

DawgieStyle

01-15-2007, 11:06 AM

I respect the effort you put into this every year, and the willingness to do this, its really cool. But I don't think there is a chance that the valley gets 5 bids, let alone 6. I think the valley will get 4 bids tops.

Overall the league might be better from top to bottom (meaning the cellar dwellers aren't really cellar dwellers anymore), but none of the teams at the top this year are better than last years 4 teams who made the dance .

Remember, the committee only selects teams regardless of conference affilliation. It doesn't matter that the conf. as a whole is better, it only matters if individual teams have earned their spot. None of this years teams are better than Wichita was last year. Based on that, I only see 4 teams that have resume's worthy of being in the dance, regardless of how good or bad the rest of the valley is.

In the dance

1) Mo. State
2) SIU
3) UNI
4) Creighton (earlier no, but now that they seem to have figured it out, and are 5-1 in the conf. I base this more on them getting the auto bid in st.louis or winning the conf. reg. season, regardless if either happens they are in)

Next in line:

Indiana State: they are the toughest ommission right now, but they aren't better than the 4 listed above them, and to be honest I don't think they will finish as hot as they are right now, maybe they'll prove me wrong.

WSU has a non. conf. schedule that says yes to the dance, but as of right now they have a conf. schedule that says no. I'm a believer you have to finish at least .500 in your own conf. to make the dance, and in the valley you better finish better than that. Maybe WSU will, but for now they aren't.

smsandmsuson

01-15-2007, 11:33 AM

ValleyGuy

01-15-2007, 11:39 AM

Of course you do Dawgie. It wouldnt be a disscussion without you and the downside of everything:lol:

And no Bradley anywhere?

Don't you know, Bradley is no good at all. They only win games that teams give them.

Come on SMS/MSU - get with the Dawiespeak!

DawgieStyle

01-15-2007, 11:45 AM

Don't you know, Bradley is no good at all. They only win games that teams give them.

Come on SMS/MSU - get with the Dawiespeak!

Bradley, wow, dreamers.

They are not NCAA tourney worthy. Sorry. They aren't bad, they'll make the NIT, and they are better than anyone expected them to be this year, but they aren't gonna make the dance. Call me a downer if you want, I'm being realistic. You don't see Joe Lunardi with Bradley in the tourney, of for that matter anyone else.

DawgieStyle

01-15-2007, 11:49 AM

Of course you do Dawgie. It wouldnt be a disscussion without you and the downside of everything:lol:

And no Bradley anywhere?

I guess if being a realist means being a downer, so be it. I'd rather be right, than cheering wildly for something that's never gonna happen.

WSUbballer

01-15-2007, 11:59 AM

Dawgie, since you have so much time on your hands, I would be interested to see what your Dawgieology would look like. What do ya say, eh?

DawgieStyle

01-15-2007, 12:02 PM

Dawgie, since you have so much time on your hands, I would be interested to see what your Dawgieology would look like. What do ya say, eh?

I don't have that much time on my hands, and if I did, I'd be using it to do more productive things than that, I have a wedding to plan for this May, and my house plans for a remodel this summer of a house we're buying. I have a feeling you'll get your wish soon enough, I won't be on valley talk for a while, I'll be waayyyyy tooo busy.

That said, I gave you who I thought was gonna make the dance from the valley, that'll have to do.

WSUbballer

01-15-2007, 12:07 PM

I don't have that much time on my hands, and if I did, I'd be using it to do more productive things than that, I have a wedding to plan for this May, and my house plans for a remodel this summer of a house we're buying. I have a feeling you'll get your wish soon enough, I won't be on valley talk for a while, I'll be waayyyyy tooo busy.

That said, I gave you who I thought was gonna make the dance from the valley, that'll have to do.

Whoa, who said I wanted you to leave Valleytalk? That would cut my reading time in here by about 80%. :lol:

Good luck with your future..

But really if you do have some extra time, I would just be curious to see your perspective on the field..

smsandmsuson

01-15-2007, 12:09 PM

I guess if being a realist means being a downer, so be it. I'd rather be right, than cheering wildly for something that's never gonna happen.

Kinda like our chances against Wisconsin or WSU against LSU and 'Cuse eh? We didnt have the man power right? All I am saying is if you dont take 5-6 from the Valley, the that means somewhere a team with an RPI far worse then a capable Valley team will be getting in without a winning conference record and you say that a Valley team needs at least 11 wins. I see what you are saying, I do. And I could see a UCONN or 'Cuse or VaTech getting in with a less then .500 conference record just because of their name or the conference that they play in. But I also think that last year was just something that will happen once. I think that after what WSU, GM, Bradley did, they will see that its not going to be a problem to put more "Mid Majors" in the Dance.

DawgieStyle

01-15-2007, 12:19 PM

Kinda like our chances against Wisconsin or WSU against LSU and 'Cuse eh? We didnt have the man power right? All I am saying is if you dont take 5-6 from the Valley, the that means somewhere a team with an RPI far worse then a capable Valley team will be getting in without a winning conference record and you say that a Valley team needs at least 11 wins. I see what you are saying, I do. And I could see a UCONN or 'Cuse or VaTech getting in with a less then .500 conference record just because of their name or the conference that they play in. But I also think that last year was just something that will happen once. I think that after what WSU, GM, Bradley did, they will see that its not going to be a problem to put more "Mid Majors" in the Dance.

its not that the valley couldn't get 5 or 6 bids, but I'm not basing it on how good the valley is as a conference, the selection committee doesn't do that. They don't look at conf. affilliation, or least they aren't supposed to.

again 1-10 the valley is much better as a whole than it was last year. I agree with this, I mean, when you have Indiana State challenging, it's apperrent.

However, the top teams this year, are no better than they have been in recent years, the only reason the RPI of the valley is better this year, is because the lower half of the conf. is finally carrying its own weight.

But you can't look at the overall conf, you have to look at those top teams I mentioned, the ones up for an at large bid. They aren't any better than last years tourney teams, and although you have to balance bids against other at large canidates, I still don't see 4 TEAMS, coming out of the MVC, regardless of the Conferences RPI.

I simply don't think anyone but CU, SIU, MSU, and UNI have quality NCAA tourney resume's.

smsandmsuson

01-15-2007, 12:42 PM

its not that the valley couldn't get 5 or 6 bids, but I'm not basing it on how good the valley is as a conference, the selection committee doesn't do that. They don't look at conf. affilliation, or least they aren't supposed to.

again 1-10 the valley is much better as a whole than it was last year. I agree with this, I mean, when you have Indiana State challenging, it's apperrent.

However, the top teams this year, are no better than they have been in recent years, the only reason the RPI of the valley is better this year, is because the lower half of the conf. is finally carrying its own weight.

But you can't look at the overall conf, you have to look at those top teams I mentioned, the ones up for an at large bid. They aren't any better than last years tourney teams, and although you have to balance bids against other at large canidates, I still don't see 4 TEAMS, coming out of the MVC, regardless of the Conferences RPI.

I simply don't think anyone but CU, SIU, MSU, and UNI have quality NCAA tourney resume's.

Ok, I can agree with that part. This is why all this is so pointless at this time. Right now, WSU wouldnt be in. But they will be there at the end. They will have at least 10 wins this year in the conference and with that and their non-conference, they will be a Dancing Team. If you get 10 wins in conference and total of at least 20, you will be in

TrueBlueJay

01-15-2007, 12:58 PM

I don't have that much time on my hands, and if I did, I'd be using it to do more productive things than that, I have a wedding to plan for this May, and my house plans for a remodel this summer of a house we're buying. I have a feeling you'll get your wish soon enough, I won't be on valley talk for a while, I'll be waayyyyy tooo busy.

That said, I gave you who I thought was gonna make the dance from the valley, that'll have to do.

This is from someone who has over 1,600 posts in less than 9 months :clapping: Priceless.

Jamar Howard 4 President

01-15-2007, 01:08 PM

Bradley, wow, dreamers.

They are not NCAA tourney worthy. Sorry. They aren't bad, they'll make the NIT, and they are better than anyone expected them to be this year, but they aren't gonna make the dance. Call me a downer if you want, I'm being realistic. You don't see Joe Lunardi with Bradley in the tourney, of for that matter anyone else.

Last year at about this time, Bradley was 9-7. 3-5 in Valley play, and had losses to #138 Loyola Chicago and #175 Drake. Their key non-conf wins were at #91 DePaul and home vs #54 Western Kentucky.

This year, Bradley is 12-6, 4-3 in Valley play, and has lost only 1 game to a team outside the top 60. Their key non-conf wins are home vs #55 DePaul and 5 wins vs. teams 100-131, any of which could soon be top 100.

Bradley received an atlarge bid last year. They are in better shape this year than they were at the same point in the season last year. Why is it so crazy to think that they are a bubble team at the moment? It must be that terrible RPI of theirs... oh wait... they are currently sitting at #28.

:doh: :doh: :doh: :doh: :doh: :doh:

DawgieStyle

01-15-2007, 01:17 PM

This is from someone who has over 1,600 posts in less than 9 months :clapping: Priceless.

I always laugh at this.....9 months x 30 days a month approx. = 270 days.

1600 post / 270 days = 5.9 post a day.

5.9 post a day / 16 hours day (other 8 sleeping) = .36 post an hour.

Considering I'm on the computer 7 days a week for my job, lunch hours, and email cheking on the weekends, that's not that big of deal. You act like I spend my entire day on valley talk......as I just proved, that's clearly not the case. Also if you'll notice, some days I'm on here a lot, some days I'm not on here at all, it just depends on my work load. My profession is feast or famine, there is no in between.

So in summarizing, get off my case.

Jamar Howard 4 President

01-15-2007, 01:17 PM

I don't think there is a chance that the valley gets 5 bids, let alone 6. I think the valley will get 4 bids tops.

The Valley was extremely close to getting 5 in last year, and an argument could be made for 6. Why is 4 the maximum all of the sudden? We have just as many, if not more, quality teams at the top, providing chances for quality wins. We also have better teams at the bottom, helping us avoid poor losses.

DawgieStyle

01-15-2007, 01:18 PM

Last year at about this time, Bradley was 9-7. 3-5 in Valley play, and had losses to #138 Loyola Chicago and #175 Drake. Their key non-conf wins were at #91 DePaul and home vs #54 Western Kentucky.

This year, Bradley is 12-6, 4-3 in Valley play, and has lost only 1 game to a team outside the top 60. Their key non-conf wins are home vs #55 DePaul and 5 wins vs. teams 100-131, any of which could soon be top 100.

Bradley received an atlarge bid last year. They are in better shape this year than they were at the same point in the season last year. Why is it so crazy to think that they are a bubble team at the moment? It must be that terrible RPI of theirs... oh wait... they are currently sitting at #28.

:doh: :doh: :doh: :doh: :doh: :doh:

true, but Bradley was not an at large team or bubble team until they ran off like 10 of 12 at the end of the season. While that is a possibility of happening, I'm betting this Bradley team won't pull off what POB and Summerville were able to.

DawgieStyle

01-15-2007, 01:24 PM

The Valley was extremely close to getting 5 in last year, and an argument could be made for 6. Why is 4 the maximum all of the sudden? We have just as many, if not more, quality teams at the top, providing chances for quality wins. We also have better teams at the bottom, helping us avoid poor losses.

While I appreciate your jamarotology, I'll stick with Joe Lunardi, no offense. I think he is almost always right on, and right now he has 4 bids for the valley, and he had 4 last year as well. Not saying he's perfect, but he's about as close as you can get. So when he says 4 bids, so do I.

WSUbballer

01-15-2007, 01:26 PM

I simply don't think anyone but CU, SIU, MSU, and UNI have quality NCAA tourney resume's.
As of right now.. you're probably right. Up until Saturday, I think Indiana State had a legitimate case to make. I don't see how the Valley could receive anywhere less than 5 bids. It's just that tough. Maybe you don't see it yet .. or maybe you have (with SIU losses at UNI and Bradley).. but this league is definitely a 5-bidder.

DawgieStyle

01-15-2007, 01:30 PM

As of right now.. you're probably right. Up until Saturday, I think Indiana State had a legitimate case to make. I don't see how the Valley could receive anywhere less than 5 bids. It's just that tough. Maybe you don't see it yet .. or maybe you have (with SIU losses at UNI and Bradley).. but this league is definitely a 5-bidder.

again, are you basing that on the quality of the conf? or on the quality of each individual team? You can not factor in that the MVC conf. has a good RPI. You can't look at that. Look at each team individually, pull them out of the conf. if you can....then how many bids do you see.

smsandmsuson

01-15-2007, 01:46 PM

While I appreciate your jamarotology, I'll stick with Joe Lunardi, no offense. I think he is almost always right on, and right now he has 4 bids for the valley, and he had 4 last year as well. Not saying he's perfect, but he's about as close as you can get. So when he says 4 bids, so do I.

He had 5 until the last half hour and then switched us for GM for no reason other then he had inside info. I could make a pretty good Bracket if I had the same info. It should have been five last year and we all know it.

BMull10

01-15-2007, 01:52 PM

While I appreciate your jamarotology, I'll stick with Joe Lunardi, no offense. I think he is almost always right on, and right now he has 4 bids for the valley, and he had 4 last year as well. Not saying he's perfect, but he's about as close as you can get. So when he says 4 bids, so do I.
There have been plenty of people that have done better bracket projections than Lunardi. He's the one who everyone knows though, so he gets a ton of credit.

DawgieStyle

01-15-2007, 01:54 PM

He had 5 until the last half hour and then switched us for GM for no reason other then he had inside info. I could make a pretty good Bracket if I had the same info. It should have been five last year and we all know it.

I could care less if the guy uses inside info or not, I care that he gets it right. I care that he provides fans with a realistic bracket to analyze long before the selection committee makes it selections (yes I know 30 min. before he swapped mo state), but for the most part, he gives us what we need to know weeks before the selections. I don't care how he does it, I'm just glad he does.

As far as should've been 5. It sucks MSU didn't make it, but if they get in, some other team would've been saying the same thing, some one has to stay home.

smsandmsuson

01-15-2007, 02:03 PM

I could care less if the guy uses inside info or not, I care that he gets it right. I care that he provides fans with a realistic bracket to analyze long before the selection committee makes it selections (yes I know 30 min. before he swapped mo state), but for the most part, he gives us what we need to know weeks before the selections. I don't care how he does it, I'm just glad he does.

As far as should've been 5. It sucks MSU didn't make it, but if they get in, some other team would've been saying the same thing, some one has to stay home.

So you really think MSU should have been the one to stay home over Air Force and Utah State? Yeah Air Force and Utah State really put a good showing eh? As for Joe, the point is he is is not doing it! He gets help! So quit thinking that he is all knowing and knows what he is doing. Yeah, it would be relatively easy putting in teams now. Most can do it. But he wouldnt have a clue as to who to put in unless he had the inside info come March.

DawgieStyle

01-15-2007, 02:04 PM

There have been plenty of people that have done better bracket projections than Lunardi. He's the one who everyone knows though, so he gets a ton of credit.

unless people are getting 100% on their brackets for the last 5 years, I don't think there are many people better than Lunardi, what he's missed like 5 teams in the last 3-4 years.

DawgieStyle

01-15-2007, 02:07 PM

So you really think MSU should have been the one to stay home over Air Force and Utah State? Yeah Air Force and Utah State really put a good showing eh? As for Joe, the point is he is is not doing it! He gets help! So quit thinking that he is all knowing and knows what he is doing. Yeah, it would be relatively easy putting in teams now. Most can do it. But he wouldnt have a clue as to who to put in unless he had the inside info come March.

I'm not getting in the whole MSU should have been in debate again. It was last year, and to be honest, if they would have taken care of business on the court better and won a few more games they would have gotten in with no debate.

As for Lunardi, I'm not saying he is all knowing or a genius, I don't care about that, I don't care how gets the info. I care that its there to review and to look at, and that its accurate. How he does it, or who does it, doesn't matter to me.

Nyghtewynd

01-15-2007, 02:20 PM

I know a way you could be even more right--you could make your selections at 9 PM on Selection Sunday! That way you could be 65-0!

GeorgiaSIUAlum

01-15-2007, 02:24 PM

you do realize Lunardi updates the picks he brags about like five minutes before the show when 59 or 60 of the teams are already well known right?

getting four out of five isnt that great of a record every year

Jamar Howard 4 President

01-15-2007, 02:52 PM

GeorgiaSIUAlum, you are flat out wrong. It isn't as easy as you think. Why don't you try picking the teams this year, without using Lunardi or someone elses predictions for help. Lunardi's predictions are probably the best ones out there. Dawgie is right that it doesn't matter how he gets his info. We just want to see what he posts online for predictions. How he gets to that point doesn't matter. Accuracy does, and he is as accurate as anyone.

That said, just because he has 4 teams listed right now doesn't mean that we don't still have a good chance at a 5th bid. There is plenty of season left, and the conference is strong. I see the Valley as a 4 bid conference, minimum, with 5 or even 6 very realistic. I don't see how anyone can say that 4 is the max. Lunardi has 4 in at the moment, and it is much easier to see a team bumping up, or taking the place of another MVC team before I could see a MVC team dropping out in place of someone from another conference.

I'd like to point out that I'm a huge proponent of "conferences don't get bids, teams do". When I refer to the number of bids the MVC will get, I'm realizing that there are many teams contending for atlarge bids, and it is hard to see the top few falling off the pace without giving some wins to the other bubble teams in the Valley. If MSU, SIU, CU, and UNI are "in" right now, then expect ISU, BU, and WSU to be the ones to bump up should one of these 4 faulter. The top 4 don't play enough games against each other to knock each other out of getting a bid. If, for instance, UNI falls out, it will probably be because they went on a skid of lossing a few to teams like Bradley, WSU, and ISU. This would probably propel BU, WSU, or ISU into atlarge status. As long as teams like Drake, Ill St., and Evansville don't start winning a bunch of conference games, there will be atleast 4 worthy atlarge teams come selection Sunday. If someone else wins in St. Louis, then we can start talking about 5 or 6 bids.

Summary: Somebody has to win every Valley game and somebody has to lose. With the strength of the conference, it is very hard to find a situation in which a minimum of 4 MVC teams aren't atlarge worthy come the end of the season. If everything goes right and 5 or 6 teams can separate from the pack, or someone unexpected wins in St. Louis, then the conference could see 5 or 6 teams in the big dance.

TrueBlueJay

01-15-2007, 02:57 PM

This is from someone who has over 1,600 posts in less than 9 months :clapping: Priceless.

LMAO - and then you go on to post 10 more times in the next couple of hours. Too funny DS.:bounceblue:

DawgieStyle

01-15-2007, 02:59 PM

LMAO - and then you go on to post 10 more times in the next couple of hours. Too funny DS.:bounceblue:

What ever, as usual, try adding something productive to the actual discussion at hand...i know that's a struggle for you, but try......

what's your take on the bids for the valley? or would you like to make fun of some more posters....

BMull10

01-15-2007, 04:38 PM

unless people are getting 100% on their brackets for the last 5 years, I don't think there are many people better than Lunardi, what he's missed like 5 teams in the last 3-4 years.
Actually, most hardcore college basketball fans could almost predict every team who is going to make the tournament an hour or so before the selection show, it's not that hard(besides last year). And I say there have been plenty of people who have been better than him, cause there are plenty of others who have got closer to the actual seeds of teams than Lunardi.

Lunardi started bracketology basically and for that he should get a lot of credit, but there are plenty of others out there who are as good or better than him.

TheAsianSensation

01-15-2007, 07:02 PM

If you compare Lunardi's track record to the track record of many online posters across the world.....he's a little bit better, but not that much.

When he does speak, you should listen, though. He's closer to the committee than you or I would ever be. It's not like he doesn't know what he's talking about.

I use this site to compare and stuff....http://bracketproject.atspace.com/comparison.htm

At the end of last year, Lunardi was about middle-of-the-pack. The 2006 stuff is gone, obviously, but it'll be interesting to see how good he is compared to a bunch of nobodies come March.

And lastly.....it's freakin' Janaury right now. We got a ways to go. Let's see how this plays out for awhile before we start putting specific numbers up in the air about how we'll do as a league come Selection Sunday.

Nyghtewynd

01-15-2007, 08:20 PM

When he does speak, you should listen, though. He's closer to the committee than you or I would ever be. It's not like he doesn't know what he's talking about.

Translation: when the "secret" committee starts leaking, they leak to him. So he's a great answering machine.

MVC Fan

01-15-2007, 10:29 PM

Why is it so crazy to think that they are a bubble team at the moment? It must be that terrible RPI of theirs... oh wait... they are currently sitting at #28.

:doh: :doh: :doh: :doh: :doh: :doh:

Thank you. I'm sick of either reading commentators (Jay Bilas, Gary Parrish, etc.) rip the the Braves or bracket projectors (Lunardi, CBS, etc.) ignore them this yr. The fact is they're having a very nice season, their RPI is great, their SOS is sky high, and if they win 20 games they should be in the tourney no questions asked.

They right now are in the same boat Creighton was on Selection Sunday last yr: take out the names and give their #s to a team in a 'big' conference, and they'd not only be in the field but be in handily.

Jamar Howard 4 President

01-17-2007, 06:04 PM

I have the MVC with 5 bids at the moment!!!

Through Games of Tuesday, January 16:

1 Bid Leagues (18):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Sunbelt, SWAC, WCC

Locks (11):
Arizona, Clemson, Kansas, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Pittsburgh, UCLA, Wisconsin

Almost Locks (13):
Alabama, Butler, Duke, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Missouri State, Nevada, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, USC

Comfortably In (10):
Arkansas, Georgia Tech, LSU, Marquette, Memphis, Purdue, Southern Illinois, UNLV, Virginia Tech, Washington State

In for now (6):
Air Force, Creighton, Florida State, Georgetown, Michigan State, Wichita State

Last 7 in (7):
Boston College, Michigan, Northern Iowa, Syracuse, Texas Tech, Villanova, West Virginia

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - cut line - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Last 6 out:
Bradley, Gonzaga, Illinois, Indiana State, Stanford, Xavier

Still in the running (10):
BYU, California, Connecticut, Dayton, Drexel, New Mexico State, Providence, Santa Clara, Virginia, Washington

Notes: Because Gonzaga droped below the cut line, the WCC no longer has an atlarge worthy team, atleast for the moment. This is why the WCC is now listed as a 1 bid league. Most leagues listed this way are going to be 1 bid leagues no matter what, but the WCC may jump in and out of this status throughout the year, depending on how Gonzaga performs.

I still have Missouri State high because I think the Wisconsin win will really be a big plus at the end of the year. If WSU continues to play well, the losing streak will become more and more of a forgotten issue, and I think WSU can once again distance themselves from the bubble quite quickly if they can take care of business over the next few games. Northern Iowa desperately needs teams like Washington, Iowa, and Iowa State to start winning, as UNI's non-conference SOS is currently at 292. I don't see the non-conf SOS improving much as a whole, but a couple of "marquee" teams like the 3 I already mentioned could do a lot to help out UNI.

TheAsianSensation

01-17-2007, 06:37 PM

Take what you did with the WCC, Jamar, and do it to the Colonial and the A-10. You don't have a representative for either in the field of 65.

Doing the brackets for these conferences will be annoying this year. There's more of these conference leaders that can throw wrenches into everything by losing their conference tourney than usual.

Jamar Howard 4 President

01-17-2007, 10:18 PM

TAS, thanks for pointing that out. I'll go ahead and edit that post to make it correct. It seems every year no matter how hard I try, I can't catch all my mistakes in my initial editions of Jamarotology. It is so much easier updating than it is starting from scratch each year.

You are also right about these conferences (CAA, A-10) being a pain this year. When their top team is on the bubble, it makes it hard to decide how to list them. Are they a 1 bid conf or not?

Again, thanks for the help, and if anyone else catches anything wrong, please let me know.

Jamar Howard 4 President

01-17-2007, 11:16 PM

Well, it looks like it has been too long for me to edit my post. I'll try to get a new, corrected, and updated Jamarotology sometime tomorrow.

smacktalkermsu

01-18-2007, 12:38 AM

1. Can we just pin this thread.......it is very good and I think a lot of people agree with JH4P's assesments.

2. I still don't see clemson as a lock......I actually see them somewhere between "Almost Lock" and comfortably in.

They will have to go .500 in their League to get in.....which i don't know if they can do.

MVC Fan

01-18-2007, 01:37 AM

If WSU continues to play well, the losing streak will become more and more of a forgotten issue, and I think WSU can once again distance themselves from the bubble quite quickly if they can take care of business over the next few games. Northern Iowa desperately needs teams like Washington, Iowa, and Iowa State to start winning, as UNI's non-conference SOS is currently at 292. I don't see the non-conf SOS improving much as a whole, but a couple of "marquee" teams like the 3 I already mentioned could do a lot to help out UNI.

If the Shockers win 20 games, it'll be virtually impossible to keep them out of the field and that streak will indeed be forgotten. Wins over LSU & 'Cuse will have to help them.

With UNI's non-conference SOS, as well as the way teams are having trouble gaining separation in league (and thus, aren't getting as far in the RPI as they could) every day the bracket buster looks more and more important. UNI will desperately need not only a good opponent, but a win, and the league will need to do well in those games to put itself in better position for at-large bids.

smacktalkermsu

01-18-2007, 01:50 AM

The SHOX really need to be at least 10-8 and win 1 if not 2 games in Arch Madness.

No Valley team will get in at 9-9 no matter what they do......unless they win the tournament.

Jamar Howard 4 President

01-18-2007, 10:25 AM

Through Games of Wednesday, January 17:

1 Bid Leagues (20):
America East, Atlantic Sun, A-10, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Ivy League, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Sunbelt, SWAC, WCC

Locks (11):
Arizona, Clemson, Kansas, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Pittsburgh, UCLA, Wisconsin

Almost Locks (11):
Butler, Duke, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Missouri State, Nevada, Notre Dame, Texas, Texas A&M, USC

Comfortably In (9):
Alabama, Florida State, Georgia Tech, LSU, Marquette, Memphis, Tennessee, UNLV, Washington State

In for now (4):
Air Force, Michigan State, Virginia Tech, Wichita State

Last 10 in (10):
Arkansas, Boston College, Creighton, Georgetown, Michigan, Purdue, Southern Illinois, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - cut line - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Last 6 out:
Bradley, Gonzaga, Illinois, Northern Iowa, Stanford, Texas Tech

Still in the running (9):
BYU, California, Connecticut, Drexel, Georgia, Indiana St, Virginia, Washington, Xavier

NOTES: I think I have everything fixed now. If not, let me know.

4 bids for the MVC at the moment, with UNI and BU very close.

Jamar Howard 4 President

01-19-2007, 10:36 AM

after last night, WSU is out, UNI is in

:banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:

3baller

01-19-2007, 12:45 PM

after last night, WSU is out, UNI is in

:banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:

As of right now I'd say your right. For the sake of this conference I hope WSU gets their stuff together. I can't believe what's happening. They by far have the best non conference resume, so I'm thinking a winning record in the league should easily get them in. As for the Panthers, I think they are in, but their SOS is pretty weak, so they need to stay near the very top!

ceaser150

01-19-2007, 01:56 PM

As of right now I'd say your right. For the sake of this conference I hope WSU gets their stuff together. I can't believe what's happening. They by far have the best non conference resume, so I'm thinking a winning record in the league should easily get them in. As for the Panthers, I think they are in, but their SOS is pretty weak, so they need to stay near the very top!

Agreed. If any team can afford a mediocre conference season it is WSU. UNI cannot afford a mediocre conference season. 10-8 for WSU and maybe 12-6 for UNI and they probably both get in.

Hail Red & White

01-20-2007, 08:23 AM

after last night, WSU is out, UNI is in

:banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:

And the way Valley play has been so far, by the end of January, they could BOTH be in or BOTH be out! :valley:

BMull10

01-20-2007, 09:03 AM

Jamar, I appreciate the work you do but you're going to have to explain to me how Mo State is almost a lock while SIU is just barely in at the moment. Now, I know the Wisconsin win is huge for Mo State but SIU does have the V-Tech win(no where near as good as Wisconsin but still a solid neutral court win. Besides that the resumes between the two are pretty similar, SIU has a better rpi and their sos's are basically equal. And if the Evansville loss is a bad loss at the moment then so is the SLU loss for Mo State(100 rpi for SLU to 103 for Evansville).

I can understand Mo State having the better resume than SIU right now but I certainly don't see it as that much better.

Jamar Howard 4 President

01-20-2007, 09:59 AM

BMull10

01-20-2007, 10:06 AM

SalukiSpike

01-20-2007, 11:30 AM

Lunardi currently has us as a 3 bid league, as of 17 Jan 07-SIU(7), Missouri State(8), and Creighton(11)

cpacmel

01-20-2007, 11:38 AM

Lunardi currently has us as a 3 bid league, as of 17 Jan 07-SIU(7), Missouri State(8), and Creighton(11)

Yes that's true. But he also has 2 Valley teams as the next 4 out. (UNI and BU).

So those 2 teams are right there.

MSNSaluki

01-20-2007, 11:40 AM

BMull10,

My last update was before MSU lost at home to UNI. At that point, MSU actually had the better RPI than SIU, had 1 less loss, had an equal number of bad losses, and had a better top win than SIU. Some of that is still true, but the loss at home to UNI drops MSU to a very similar spot as SIU right now.

At the moment, I have MSU with just a slight advantage over SIU in the atlarge race, and part of that may be due to personal bias based on watching both teams play and what I expect from them in the coming weeks. Right now, they are very even, and an argument could be made for either team.

SIU's RPI was 6 before the Wednesday night debacle.
Missouri State's RPI was 14 on in that vicinity before losing to UNI on Thursday night.
SIU has blasted Missouri State by 20.

Don't know where I'm going with this ... wait, I think you do.:lol:
Great work, as usual. I kinda think SIU has the best current at-large profile of anybody in the Valley when you factor everything.

3baller

01-20-2007, 11:40 AM

Yes that's true. But he also has 2 Valley teams as the next 4 out. (UNI and BU).

So those 2 teams are right there.

During his chat session last night he said UNI is back in his bracket. He also said UNI needed that last game a lot more than MSU did, which I agree with.

cpacmel

01-20-2007, 05:46 PM

During his chat session last night he said UNI is back in his bracket. He also said UNI needed that last game a lot more than MSU did, which I agree with.

As do I.

I would love to see 4 teams again. With a 5th team having a slight possibilty too....:valley:

shocker3

01-20-2007, 06:02 PM

Fewer than 4 Valley teams dancing this year would be very disappointing.

But if the lower level teams (no offense) keep getting wins against the upper teams then 3 teams could be a real possiblity.

The worst case scenerio would be if the bottom teams win so many games that we really end up with a very even top to bottom race that only two teams get in (the regular season champ and the tourney champ).

I am still hoping for five bids but 3 or 4 bids are the most likely scenerio:valley: .

Omahaboundshock

01-21-2007, 03:07 AM

Unfortunately I think the way we are beating each other that 2 or 3 bids is all we are going to get.

getreal4

01-21-2007, 06:39 PM

Unfortunately I think the way we are beating each other that 2 or 3 bids is all we are going to get.

Two bids looks very probable given the wins by the bottom teams.

Nyghtewynd

01-21-2007, 06:40 PM

Yep. Three at most. Two is more likely right now. And they aren't putting more than three conference teams in the NIT. The MVC may have a team with an RPI better than 60 that doesn't make the postseason at all.

jaypharmalum

01-21-2007, 07:13 PM

MVC will get 2 or 3 teams, I hate to say. And most likely based on current resumes (not necessarily RPIs), the teams will be seeded 8-12.

tennis08tarheels

01-21-2007, 07:50 PM

Things couldn't be going much worse right now. Thanks, UE and IlSU.
-.-

Aceman96

01-21-2007, 08:44 PM

I think if we're talking two teams that deserve to be in by their resumes, we're looking at SIU and MSU... even with their losses at UE. However, I would certainly not say that either of them will definitely win the conference tourney. So, that's a minimum of three... And, lets be honest... can you believe we're saying the words... "minimum of three" for the Valley? We've been a solid 2 bid league for some time now... three as a minimum is the next logical step to world domination.

Nyghtewynd

01-21-2007, 08:48 PM

Anything less than four will be seen as "Last year was a fluke" by most of the country, and we'll be right back where we were a few years ago.

pantherhawk

01-21-2007, 08:57 PM

well i think the league will get 4 bids in based on the fact that their are a lot of other leagues way down this year. Big East is only looking at 6 prob, Big Ten i am saying 3, i don't think they get 4 in, unless someone other than Wisky, OSU, or Indiana wins the conference tourney. Pac 10 was said to have 5 go, but Washington is falling off the map. I think the MVC will get 4 in, but I can tell you that the league champ will get around a 5-7 seed, everyone else will be prob around the 10-13 mark. Which will be fine, I think the MVC is the most competitive league in the nation right now and I would love to see some of these Power Schools come and play this schedule night in and night out. It ain't easy, every game is huge. The month of Feb is gonna be crazy, Best of Luck to all the teams and hopefully it will be an exciting race to the finish!

tennis08tarheels

01-21-2007, 09:02 PM

Pac10 could possibly have 7 or 8 teams in. I know, it sounds ridiculous, but:

1. UCLA - in
2. Oregon - in
3. U of A - in
4. WSU - in
5. USC - in
6. Washington - should get it back together, especially with the return of Hawes. My projection is in.
7. Stanford - winning the Pac10 games that they should, strong bubble team.
8. Cal - see above.
9. Arizona State - ew.
10. Oregon State - ew.

pantherhawk

01-22-2007, 09:16 AM

No way Washington or Stanford get in. They are struggling right now and the road in the Pac-10 doesn't get easier. I mean Washington got blown out by WSU by 20 some the other day. I would say Washington is on the bubble, unless they start playing, they could be out within the next couple of weeks. Standford is doing okay, but they still have a lot or road games left to play. I truely think the Pac 10 will only get 5 which is fine. Unless something bad happens where Drake and Evansville start beating everyone, I see the League getting 4 bids based on their Out of conferece success and their league RPI. As of right now I Say (MSU, CREIGHTON, UNI, SIU) are in, but any one of these teams start to lose games they are favored to win, then it could get down to 3. http://valleytalk.net/images/smilies/panthers.gif

tennis08tarheels

01-22-2007, 02:34 PM

Washington State is a Top 15 team. Losing at WSU, even by 20, isn't a bad thing at all.

pantherhawk

01-22-2007, 03:52 PM

Jamar Howard 4 President

01-22-2007, 04:02 PM

pantherhawk, I know this is a message board, but a little more self-editing of your posts would be nice. That last one was a bit tough to follow.

MoValley John

01-22-2007, 04:25 PM

Yeah i know, but washington pac 10 conference record is 1-6? I mean unless they get on a win streak and don't lose any more in coference i would say they are in. But no way they get in with 6 conference losses. They will have to do some serious winning to get in. Standford is also kind of in the same boat, they have a long ways to go.

<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR title="Post 63378" vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 align=middle width=125>Jamar Howard 4 President</TD><TD class=alt2>pantherhawk, I know this is a message board, but a little more self-editing of your posts would be nice. That last one was a bit tough to follow.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

I think he meant Sanford. Hope this helps.

http://www.timvp.com/sanford2.jpg

cuhoops

01-28-2007, 02:55 PM

any updates JH4prez?

pantherhawk

01-28-2007, 05:31 PM

no washington's record a week ago in pac 10 play was 1-6! They are not very good, but are starting to come around. All i was trying to get at was that everyone is always worried that the major conferences are going to take all the bids. I truely think the pac 10 will only get 5, Big Ten 4, SEC 6, Big East 5, ACC 6, and MVC 4. After UNI's collapse last night at Drake, the MVC could be looking at 3 possibly 2! It all depends on UNI if they can keep winning or losing to the bottom teams in the conference.

pantherhawk

01-28-2007, 09:53 PM

okay i am gonna go ahead and eat my words, the pac 10 is gonna get more in than expected! Stanford just beat UCLA and looked good doing it! I truely think this league will decide how many the MVC gets, they are going to go way over their normal limit! They are usually a 3 bid conference i am saying as far as 7! They are loaded from top to bottom and the lower end teams are beating up the top teams! I think the MVC is only gonna get 2, the only way they get three is if UNI or MO State start to get on a win streak!

bcrawf

01-28-2007, 09:56 PM

We are a 3 bid league with a possible 4th if the right team wins the tourney in St. Louis...

MVC Fan

01-28-2007, 10:43 PM

Jamar Howard 4 President

01-28-2007, 11:00 PM

Through Games of Sunday, January 28:

Definite 1-Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Sunbelt, SWAC

Probable 1-Bid Leagues (2):
A-10, Colonial

Locks (18):
Arizona, Butler, Clemson, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Florida, Indiana, Marquette, North Carolina, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Pittsburgh, Texas A&M, UCLA, Virginia Tech, Wisconsin

Almost Locks (5):
Memphis, Nevada, Southern Illinois, Stanford, Washington State

Comfortably In (10):
Air Force, Georgetown, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Texas, Texas Tech, UNLV, USC, Vanderbilt, Villanova

In for now (7):
Alabama, Arkansas, Creighton, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Tennessee

Last 6 in (6):
Boston College, Georgia, Gonzaga, Missouri State, Syracuse, Virginia

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - cut line - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Last 9 out:
Bradley, BYU, LSU, Michigan, Northern Iowa, Purdue, Washington, West Virginia, Wichita State

Still in the running (8):
California, Kansas St, Illinois, Louisville, New Mexico St, Providence, Virginia Commonwealth, Xavier

NOTES: Only 3 MVC teams in, but 3 more are knocking on the door.

I am being generous by putting Texas at "comfortably in". I gave serious consideration to putting them at "in for now". They have gotten a lot of hype this year, despite only a couple of quality wins. Quality losses only count for so much.

Syracuse and LSU are killing WSU. The Shox have really lost a lot of the sparkle from their non-conf resume. I think WSU's non-conf will only be a small boost when battling other MVC teams for the last few atlarge spots. The Shox need to finish within 1 game (in Valley play) of any other Valley bubble team that they hope to beat out for a bid. A month ago, I would have said a 2 game deficit would be manageable, but now I'm not so sure. For example, if WSU finishes 10-8 in conference, and UNI finishes 12-6, I'm not sure that the Shox will get enough non-conf boost to pass UNI.

Finally, St. Louis will be huge this year. With so many teams in a log jam, the committee is going to use the MVC tourney as a tiebreaker. Look for some huge games on Friday!!!

TheAsianSensation

01-29-2007, 12:00 AM

tennis08tarheels

01-29-2007, 12:02 AM

Syracuse, Georgia, Gonzaga should be out. LSU, Washington, and UNI should be in. My opinion.

smsandmsuson

01-29-2007, 12:11 AM

Syracuse, Georgia, Gonzaga should be out. LSU, Washington, and UNI should be in. My opinion.

Gonzaga has to be in because their conference has to have at least one team:naughty:
Georgia: 38 RPI and one of four SEC to have a winning conference record.

Has a team ever gotten in with a sub .500 conference record? I know Maryland got in with a 8-8 record one year I believe.

cpacmel

01-29-2007, 04:20 AM

Syracuse, Georgia, Gonzaga should be out. LSU, Washington, and UNI should be in. My opinion.

Washington? 0-6 on the road. 1-5 against the top 50. Under .500 record in the Pac-10.

They are no where near the bubble. Committee will no reward a team that hasn't won on the road.

cpacmel

01-29-2007, 04:32 AM

Has a team ever gotten in with a sub .500 conference record? I know Maryland got in with a 8-8 record one year I believe.

There have been a few :ermm: :

2005 NC State 19-13 (7-9)
2005 Iowa 21-11 (7-9)

2003 Alabama 17-11 (7-9)

2001 Penn State 22-11 (7-9)

1999 Purdue 19-12 (7-9)

Just went back to 1999, since that is as far back as Pomeroy goes. There have been quite a few teams that went .500 in their conferences and got at-large bids.

Divergence

01-29-2007, 07:32 AM

Syracuse, Georgia, Gonzaga should be out. LSU, Washington, and UNI should be in. My opinion.

Question - why do you have UNI in? Is it something your projecting to the future or what do you see that would cause the selection comitte to chose them?

I look at UNI and see RPI = 54 and 3-3 record versus 101 to 200 opponents, and finally Non-Conf SOS 292.

Jamar Howard 4 President

01-29-2007, 08:32 AM

I'm glad to see that we are getting some good discussion in this thread.

Syracuse, Georgia, Gonzaga should be out. LSU, Washington, and UNI should be in. My opinion.

LSU has played their way out, atleast for now.

RPI - 74
vs Top 50 - 1-4
vs Top 80 - 1-7
vs Top 100 - 3-7
Currently on a 3 game losing streak, so the trendline isn't good

1 home win over Texas A&M may be their only win over a postseason team (NCAA or NIT). It is definitely their only win over a likely NCAA team. Also, they have lost to good, but not great teams. If they had losses to Wisconsin, UNC, UCLA, and Florida, that would be one thing. As it stands, all 7 of their losses are to teams that I doubt will even sniff a top 5 seed.

Washington is a very similar story with only a slightly better resume.

Jamar Howard 4 President

01-29-2007, 08:41 AM

Heh. I just did mine on another forum....

http://www.pjstarforums.com/sports/viewtopic.php?t=51026&start=30

I've got Georgia Tech out (can't put 2-5 ACC in the field) and have Northern Iowa in (blatant MVC homerism :innocent: )

Other than that....we agree on the field of 65 right now. Amazing.

Cool. It is amazing that we are that close, especially this early in the year.

My reasoning with GT is that they have had possibly the toughest schedule to start ACC play, and they will pick up some wins once they get to play Wake Forest, NC State, etc. I have a hard time leaving out a team that already has 5 top 50 wins, including 2 against currently ranked teams, and only 1 bad loss.

UNI's problem is that they have to solely rely on MVC play for quality wins (except for the Bracket buster). Right now, they have 0 quality wins from non-conf play (at Iowa, maybe?), and now that they have 3 bad losses, I think they might be in trouble. Without a good RPI, I don't see any real big upside. They need a high finish in the MVC standings, that's for sure.

WSU at UNI on ESPN2
Tuesday night at 6PM CST
HUGE GAME!!!

ceaser150

01-29-2007, 09:52 AM

Cool. It is amazing that we are that close, especially this early in the year.

My reasoning with GT is that they have had possibly the toughest schedule to start ACC play, and they will pick up some wins once they get to play Wake Forest, NC State, etc. I have a hard time leaving out a team that already has 5 top 50 wins, including 2 against currently ranked teams, and only 1 bad loss.

UNI's problem is that they have to solely rely on MVC play for quality wins (except for the Bracket buster). Right now, they have 0 quality wins from non-conf play (at Iowa, maybe?), and now that they have 3 bad losses, I think they might be in trouble. Without a good RPI, I don't see any real big upside. They need a high finish in the MVC standings, that's for sure.

WSU at UNI on ESPN2
Tuesday night at 6PM CST
HUGE GAME!!!

UNI is 6-3 vs the top 100 and GT is 5-6 vs the top 100. Uni is 3-3 vs 100-200 and GT is 2-1 vs the same group. Very similar resumes. GT probably gets the nod on name recognition but it is hard to distinguish between the 2.

cpacmel

01-29-2007, 09:57 AM

UNI is 6-3 vs the top 100 and GT is 5-6 vs the top 100. Uni is 3-3 vs 100-200 and GT is 2-1 vs the same group. Very similar resumes. GT probably gets the nod on name recognition but it is hard to distinguish between the 2.

Ceaser, they are also going to look at SOS numbers.

Unfortunately, UNI isn't going to win many battles when people look at their non-conference numbers. (non-conference SOS 292 out of 336).

ceaser150

01-29-2007, 10:06 AM

Ceaser, they are also going to look at SOS numbers.

Unfortunately, UNI isn't going to win many battles when people look at their non-conference numbers. (non-conference SOS 292 out of 336).

Point taken. But Washington St and Notre Dame also have Non-Con SOS in the high 200s, yet they are in the national polls. And UNI has a better overall SOS than Notre Dame. The fact is if you want to find an argument for or against a team, it is pretty easy to do. I just hope the committe members aren't looking for a reason to keep out a MVC team or two.

Another question I have never been able to get an answer to is do they factor in road games when calculating SOS, similar to the RPI? Or is it strictly based on the opponent?

bcrawf

01-29-2007, 10:15 AM

I am so tired of the double standard. When a Big East team plays nobody, they talk about how its ok because the league is so strong. But when a Valley team does it, they talk about how they have to play somebody to get in.

Take one side or the other.

Also, Abolish the national polls. Its a name recognition contest and they have absolutely no meaning, other than giving Dickie V a cance to scream about "THE DOOKIES, BABY, HERE COME THE DOOKIES"

cpacmel

01-29-2007, 11:02 AM

I wouldn't worry too much about National polls when it comes to the NCAA Big Dance. I believe there have been a handful of teams that have been ranked in the top 25, but did not get into the Tourney.

And I would totally agree that a double standard does exist.

bcrawf

01-29-2007, 11:03 AM

Oh, I know. I was just pointing out their complete absurdity...

Jamar Howard 4 President

01-29-2007, 12:39 PM

UNI is 6-3 vs the top 100 and GT is 5-6 vs the top 100. Uni is 3-3 vs 100-200 and GT is 2-1 vs the same group. Very similar resumes. GT probably gets the nod on name recognition but it is hard to distinguish between the 2.

Top 100 wins
GT . . . UNI
.5 . .. . 9
12 . . . 39
29 . . . 40
38 . . . 61
44 . . . 92
-- . . . 94

Top 100 losses
GT . . . UNI
.1 . .. . 9
.2 . . . 35
24 . . . 72
26 . . . --
27 . . . --
58 . . . --

You can't always look at records vs top 50 or top 100 alone. In this case, GT has played much better top 100 competition than UNI. All 11 of GT's games vs the top 100 have also been against the top 60. Only 5 of UNI's 9 games vs. the top 100 have been against the top 60.

When you break it down this way, things look very even, but that is before you factor the games with teams ranked 100+. In those games, GT has a huge advantage. This is why I think GT is a full step ahead of UNI right now.

Maggie

01-29-2007, 01:22 PM

JH4P,

I just want to say thank you. I enjoy reading your Jamarotology.

getreal4

01-29-2007, 01:48 PM

JH4P,

I just want to say thank you. I enjoy reading your Jamarotology.

I second that statement. Well thought out, excellant job.

FSUMatt222

01-30-2007, 05:11 AM

Jamar, I'd also like to say I really enjoy your jamarotology posts. I even started doing a similar prediction post on warchant.com loosely based on your format.

It's obvious you analyze every team in great detail and I agree with just about every team you have in your bracket. I have just a couple teams I disagree with and would like to hear your opinion as to why you put them in each particular category or even why they are in the field.

1. My biggest problem is having Alabama in the field, and not just in the field but in the "In for now category." If not for their gaudy preseason ranking and expectations, I don't think they'd even be on the radar. Maybe in the "Still in the running category."

As of right now,
*They have no great wins. Wins against #39 UGA and #46 Xavier at home are decent, but nothing special.
*They are 1-4 on the road with their only win coming at ACC bottom feeder NCSt. Their 4 losses were all by 14+ and included a 24 point thrashing @#98 Auburn. Now in their most recent game they got crushed by Arkansas at home (If you didn't see the game, don't let the final score fool you).

2. Clemson is not a lock any more. They've lost 4 of 5 and if they happen to drop their next 2 games (@GT and FSU) they are gonna have a really hard time making the dance. The only team of note they beat OOC was UGA. I'm not sure that they will get in the tournament with a 7-9 or 8-8 ACC record which is highly possible if not probable.

Other than those 2, I agree with pretty much everything you have. Keep up the great work! And GL to your Shockers. Maybe we'll get a rematch of our NIT matchup a few years ago, although hopefully in the NCAA tournament this time.

Jamar Howard 4 President

01-30-2007, 12:07 PM

Thanks to everyone for the nice comments. Also, thanks to everyone who has helped make this a civil place full of good basketball discussion!

As for Alabama, they still have an RPI of 33, only 5 losses overall, and no losses outside the RPI top 100. I realize that I did overlook their lack of road wins, and I will probably drop them to my "last _ in" category. Thanks for pointing that out.

However, I'm not ready to drop them out of my field of 65 yet. Here's some of the teams that I would have to replace them with. I give Alabama the edge over:

Bradley: 8 losses (3 more than bama), RPI is 7 spots worse than bama's, 1 loss outside the top 100 (@#136).

BYU: Other than the win over Air Force, their next best wins are #73 Utah State or #76 San Diego State. 6 losses already, including a loss to #240 Lamar!!!. Finally, the Mountain West doesn't provide many more opportunities for quality wins (only 2 more top 50 games on their schedule, and only 4 more vs the top 100).

LSU: RPI is 72, and they have lost their last 3 in a row. Nothing more needs said.

Michigan: 6 losses. Lost to #154 NC State. Only 2 road wins against mediocre teams. RPI is 9 spots worse than bama's. 3 wins vs the top 110, highest being #46.

Northern Iowa: RPI is 21 spots worse than bama's. 3 losses outside the top 100. Non-conf season provides next to nothing to the resume.

Purdue: RPI is 13 spots worse than bama's. 0 true road wins. Lost to #174 Minnesota. A handful of decent wins, but none are RPI top 40, so the upside is still limited.

Washington: RPI is 69, 36 spots back of Alabama. 0 true road wins. A home win over Oregon recently is the only reason they are even close to the bubble.

West Virginia: RPI is 49, 16 spots back of Alabama. 1 road win, at RPI #212. Win at home against Villanova is only top 70 win, and only 3 total wins against the top 130. Lost to #143 Cincinnati.

Wichita State: Nope. I'm not even going to discuss this team's pitfalls. Let's just say they deserve to be on the outside looking in, atleast for now. :banghead:

If anyone wants a more detailed breakdown of a certain team. Let me know and I'll get to it when I get a chance. In the meantime, let me refer you to kenpom.com, which is where I get most of my info. It is a very easy to use site with plenty of information.

FSUMatt222

01-31-2007, 12:43 AM

This is my own "Jamarotology." Jamar, as you can see I took your format and tweaked it just a tad. Hopefully you don't mind, but if you do, let me know and I will change it immediately.

This is based on all games played up until this point in the season. Future predictions have no bearing on it. All feedback is welcome.

One note...Drexel is in the field because I think the Colonial will get 2 teams in, especially if VCU loses in their tournament. I'm not sure that Drexel would get an at-large, but it's inevitable that at least one (probably more) of the (*) teams will lose in their conference tournament taking away a spot for an at-large.

1 Bid Leagues Regardless of Who Wins the Automatic Bid (18):
America East, Atlantic Sun, A-10, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Sunbelt, SWAC

(*)A team that would take away an at-large spot with a loss in their conference tournament.

Locks barring a total collapse(14):
Butler*, Duke, Florida, Kansas, Marquette, North Carolina, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Pittsburgh, Texas A&M, UCLA, Virginia Tech, Wisconsin

Borderline Locks (6):
Air Force, Indiana, Kentucky, Memphis*, Nevada*, Stanford

Safely In (8):
Arizona, Clemson, Southern Illinois, Texas Tech, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Washington St.

In for Now. (8):
Boston College, Creighton, Florida St., Georgetown, Georgia, Notre Dame, Texas, USC

Hanging on by a thread (9):
Arkansas, Drexel, Gonzaga*, Michigan St, Missouri St., Tennessee, UVA, VCU*, West Virginia

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - cut line - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Knocking on the Door (7):
Alabama, BYU, Illinois, Louisville, Maryland, Purdue, Xavier

Still in the running (11):
Bradley, Georgia Tech, Kansas St., LSU, Michigan, New Mexico St., Northern Iowa, Providence, Syracuse, Washington, Wichita St.

MU88

01-31-2007, 10:48 AM

You have to look into the future with a few of these bids. For example, the uneven schedule in the BE will result in some very interest decisions. Take Villanova for example. They are 3-5 in conference and have handful of very tough games left. They may not finish with a winning record in the BE. Even though they may be one of the top 64 teams in the country, I think they are a longshot unless they beat Louisville on Saturday. On the other hand, Louisville has 6 fairly easy games and 4 games against teams with high RPI. There is a good chance they will end up at least 10-6 in the Big East with an RPI in the 30s or 40s. I think they really have to screw up to miss the tourney. Along the same lines, ND has a very weak schedule the rest of the way. They could end up 13-3 or 12-4 in the BE. They are a stone cold lock. There are situations similar to VU in other conferences too. BC is in big trouble. They have a tough schedule and their starting center is out. It is going to be a tough road for them. Clemson is trouble too.

FSUMatt222

01-31-2007, 02:53 PM

Good point about Villanova, they should probably move down to the "Hanging on by a thread" category. I didn't realize they were 3-5 in conference to this point.

smsandmsuson

01-31-2007, 03:43 PM

I did mine fairly fast and probably didnt do as much research as you guys but this is my thought process.

Solid multi bid leagues-

ACC (7) - Hookies, Heels, Blue Devils, Cavs, Eagles, Tigers, Seminoles
SEC (5) - Wildcats, Gators, Bulldogs, Hogs, Commodores
Pac 10 (6) - Ducks, Bruins, Cougars, Cardinal, Trojans, Wildcats
Big 10 (5) - Badgers, Buckeyes, Hoosiers, Wolverines, Spartans
MVC (5) - Salukis, Bluejays, Bears, Braves, Shockers
Big East (7) - Panthers, Golden Eagles, Irish, Hoyas, Cardinals, Mountaineers
Big 12 (5) - Jayhawks, Aggies, Longhorns, Cowboys, Red Raiders
MWC (2) - Falcons, Rebels

Borderline multi bid leagues but one for now-
WAC
A10
Horizon
CAA
WCC

18 One bid leagues

That is the total for 65 teams. Now, I do think the SEC will get more in because the West will eventually have someone come near .500 in conference play but I do not think that they will be taking from us but from the Big East. I could see the Big East getting just 5 and the SEC 7. The Cavs in the ACC could be held out because of a high RPI but we have seen BCS teams still get in. There is still a slight chance for Zaga to get in without winning their tourney; same goes for VCU.

Canevision

01-31-2007, 04:03 PM

I see very little chance of 5 going from the Valley at this point. Too much parity.

smsandmsuson

01-31-2007, 04:11 PM

I see very little chance of 5 going from the Valley at this point. Too much parity.

Good thing I didnt voice my opinion on 6 then:innocent:

If the top 6 can avoid any more "bad" losses and win their BB games, I dont see how you can keep them out. The only two I question at this point are UNI and BU. UNI would get that big OOC win they are lacking and Bradley would add another top 50 win possibly.

DoubleJayAlum

01-31-2007, 04:38 PM

I see very little chance of 5 going from the Valley at this point. Too much parity.

I concur. In fact, right now I'd say we are lucky to get four bids.

WSUbballer

01-31-2007, 05:05 PM

I see very little chance of 5 going from the Valley at this point. Too much parity.
But come on, where ISN'T parity in college basketball right now? Is it our fault that the entire Valley has improved enough to where it's beating the living hell out of each of its entities every night??
I can agree that 5 is probably too high, but use better reasoning..

smsandmsuson

01-31-2007, 09:16 PM

As soon as I say avoid the bad losses the freakin Bears have to go and lose to Drake. Freakin Drake people!!!

shocker3

01-31-2007, 09:50 PM

As soon as I say avoid the bad losses the freakin Bears have to go and lose to Drake. Freakin Drake people!!!

I thought that the Bears beat Drake tonight.

Nyghtewynd

01-31-2007, 09:55 PM

I thought that the Bears beat Drake tonight.

They did. He probably turned the radio off. I almost did, but I also look at car crashes when I drive past them, so that's not really me.

Canevision

01-31-2007, 10:27 PM

But come on, where ISN'T parity in college basketball right now? Is it our fault that the entire Valley has improved enough to where it's beating the living hell out of each of its entities every night??
I can agree that 5 is probably too high, but use better reasoning..

Come on now, that is perfect reasoning. The fact that no one is separating themselves, the champ may end up with 5 losses, and every team is slipping into that danger zone of RPI at-large bids, and I can see a scenario where we get only three bids.

I'm as big a Valley fan as anyone else, and my posts will show that, but I don't see five this year unless we get some wins that we don't currently have.

If we have 4 teams around that 30-45 RPI range, I can see it being hard for the committee to take them all and give the Valley five spots in the dance. The reason the teams will all be bunched is parity. That's what my reasoning is.

smsandmsuson

01-31-2007, 11:23 PM

As soon as I say avoid the bad losses the freakin Bears have to go and lose to Drake. Freakin Drake people!!!

A little early. When you are down 10 with 2 minutes to go, do you think you will come back after just giving it away again? I didnt think so

IowaJay

01-31-2007, 11:32 PM

Come on now, that is perfect reasoning. The fact that no one is separating themselves, the champ may end up with 5 losses, and every team is slipping into that danger zone of RPI at-large bids, and I can see a scenario where we get only three bids.

I'm as big a Valley fan as anyone else, and my posts will show that, but I don't see five this year unless we get some wins that we don't currently have.

If we have 4 teams around that 30-45 RPI range, I can see it being hard for the committee to take them all and give the Valley five spots in the dance. The reason the teams will all be bunched is parity. That's what my reasoning is.

I agree, historically, if TEAMS are outside the top 40-RPI, there's not much chance of getting in, regardless of the conference RPI ranking. The Valley has too many teams in the dangerous range of RPI rankings.

getreal4

02-01-2007, 09:10 AM

A little early. When you are down 10 with 2 minutes to go, do you think you will come back after just giving it away again? I didnt think so

Drake is not your normal Valley team. We are very well practised at finding new creative ways to lose. :banghead:

Jamar Howard 4 President

02-02-2007, 09:22 AM

Here's a question for you. Try not to think too hard about what teams I'm talking about and instead just focus on the numbers. No cheating. Yes, I'm talking to you!!!

Team A

Team A has wins over (RPI rankings used):
9, 10, 40, 43, 56, 59, 70, 72, 73, 79

4 top 50 wins
10 top 100 wins.
At one point, won 9 consecutive games, all vs top 100 opponents.

Team A is ranked 8th in the RPI with both the #1 non-conf SOS and the #1 overall SOS in the country. This team has been ranked in every single AP poll since week 1. They have been as high as #7.

Is there any reason whatsoever that this team should be concerned about making the NCAA tourney? Shouldn't they be focused on fighting for a #1 seed?

Team B

Team B has lost 6 of their last 8 games, including 3 at home. In the 2007 calender year, team B is 0-6 vs teams in the top 175 of the RPI. The only 2 wins in 2007 have been home wins vs terrible teams. Team B lost by 28 points at home just this past week.

This team is only .500 in their conference standings, and they play 5 of their last 8 on the road. 6 of their last 8 are against teams in the RPI top 75, so there is plenty of reason to think that the losing may continue for a while.

Does this team have much hope of making the NCAA tourney? How big of a winning streak will this team need to go on to convince the committee that they have turned their season around? Are they even NIT bound?

...

...

...

In case you haven't figured it out yet, teams A and B are actually the same team. Arizona.

Look at their remaining schedule:
Home #72 Washington
Away #184 Oregon St
Away #16 Oregon
Home #55 USC
Home #1 UCLA
Away #234 Arizona St
Away #40 Stanford
Away #56 California

Despite Arizona's impressive start to the year, could they actually be in danger of missing the tourney? I am just now starting to think that it is possible. They have a very difficult schedule to finish the year, and if they went 4-4 in the last 8 games of the regular season, they would be 6-10 in their 2nd half of the season.

Actually, with that schedule, and the way they have played recently, there are only 2 "easy" wins, so 3-5 would be very possible. Could a team actually finish the regular season 5-11 (1-11 vs postseason teams) and still make the tourney? This could be an interesting case. My gut says that they are a good enough team that they will win a few of those tough games, take care of the 2 easy games (haven't lost to anyone outside the top 60 so far), and this will be a non-issue in a few weeks. However, if they do continue to slide, things could get interesting.

So, what do you all think? The one thing I am sure of is that Arizona has played a crazy schedule. Take a look at it:

Arizona's 2006-2007 schedule (http://www.kenpom.com/sked.php?&y=2007&team=Arizona)

Jamar Howard 4 President

02-02-2007, 01:18 PM

XSaluki

02-02-2007, 01:41 PM

On the subject of Arizona, I realized that Cincinnati from last year is a reasonable case for comparison.

Cincinnati was:
4-8 vs the top 50
11-11 vs the top 100

but a poor 2nd half of the season and a final RPI of 40 left them as one of the last teams out.

If Arizona were to beat Oregon St, Arizona St, and Washington, but lose the other 5, they would be:
4-9 vs the top 50
11-12 vs the top 100

Talk about an amazingly similar resume. I don't know how far Arizona's RPI would drop, and it might stay higher than 40, but still, I think that would be a reasonable scenario for Arizona possibly getting left out of the tourney.
Last year a conspiracy kept Cinci out of the tourney :boxed:. The conspiracy says that the head of the selection comittee was an ex-co worker and mentor to UC President Nancy L. Zimpher, and Nancy asked for the favor of not being selected. This was supposedly her attempt to get rid of Andy Kennedy (the last major connection to Huggins).

Ferocious Cat

02-02-2007, 02:32 PM

Last year a conspiracy kept Cinci out of the tourney :boxed:. The conspiracy says that the head of the selection comittee was an ex-co worker and mentor to UC President Nancy L. Zimpher, and Nancy asked for the favor of not being selected. This was supposedly her attempt to get rid of Andy Kennedy (the last major connection to Huggins).

That is fantastic! I love conspiracy theories:grin:
I thought Kennedy wasn't given a fair shot to begin with. Thanks for sharing that...

Jamar Howard 4 President

02-06-2007, 12:49 PM

Through Games of Monday, February 5:

Definite 1-Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy League, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Sunbelt, SWAC

Probable 1-Bid Leagues (3):
A-10, Colonial, WCC

The WAC (Nevada), Horizon (Butler), and CUSA (Memphis) are probably 1-bid leagues also. However, because these leagues each have a team worthy of an atlarge bid, I’m not going to list their conferences in the “Probable 1-Bid Leagues” list.

Locks (19):
Arizona, Butler, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Florida, Indiana, Marquette, Memphis, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Pittsburgh, Texas A&M, UCLA, Washington State, Wisconsin

Almost Locks (12):
Air Force, Boston College, Clemson, Creighton, Florida State, Georgetown, Southern Illinois, Stanford, USC, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Comfortably In (4):
Alabama, Notre Dame, UNLV, Villanova

In for now (2):
Missouri State, West Virginia

Last 8 in (8):
Arkansas, BYU, Kansas State, Maryland, Michigan State, Tennessee, Texas, Texas Tech

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - cut line - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Last 6 out:
Georgia, Gonzaga, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Louisville, Purdue

Still in the running (12):
Bradley, California, LSU, Michigan, Mississippi, Northern Iowa, Providence, Syracuse, Virginia Commonwealth, Washington, Wichita State, Xavier

Notes: The last 8 in, and the last 6 out could just about be a wash. There is a huge group of teams there without a lot of distinction.

I almost combined the "in for now" and "last 8 in" categories, but then I reconsidered. I think Missouri State and West Virginia are a slight step ahead, so I left the distinction in place.

In case you think I have overvalued Creighton's chances, consider this... their RPI is 25, they are 5-1 vs the top 50, and 4 of their last 6 are at home. With a 2 game lead in conference over 3rd place, a tie for 2nd in the conference seems like a worst case scenario. Beat Evansville, and split with SIU and UNI, and Creighton will be a stone cold lock.

I think my list of bubble teams is comprehensive. If I have not listed someone, and you think they still have a chance, let me know so I can shoot them down. :grin: