okstarsfan
03-01-2006, 10:45 AM
Jay Bilas giving 4 MVC schools "lock" status??? Maybe not, since Creighton is listed twice (but probably was meant for lock, since there are 23 schools listed for 22 bubble spots). It must be approaching 32 degrees down below.....
http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/insider/columns/story?columnist=bilas_jay&id=2349445 (ESPN Insider subscription required)
This is all you need (before more games are played)
By Jay Bilas
Special to ESPN Insider
Archive
Ever heard of Nostradamus? Ha! A rank amateur! This is the official, fully authorized, bubble-approved, obsequious, smug and arrogant guide to figuring out the NCAA Tournament bubble picture.
There is no further need for the selection committee to watch games, review records or have thoughtful discussion. All one needs to do is to read and comprehend this tome, and all will be crystal clear. Yes friends, read this, and you too will have all of the answers, just like us talking heads on TV!
Warning: This Bubble Guide is for amusement only. If you are a player or coach, please do not cease playing or coaching to the best of your ability, for slacking off thinking you have it made or are cooked might alter the rock-solid perfect projections of this guide. Similarly, if you are a rabid fan, please do not change any flight or hotel arrangements based upon these projections, as perfect and on the mark as they might be. To have the global economy affected by this projection would be unfortunate. And, please, wagering based upon these projections is discouraged, as is shooting fish in a barrel.
One-bid Conferences: 18
These 18 leagues will get one bid, and one bid only -- the automatic bid from the league championship. When you are thinking about all of the pressure that is on players and coaches during Championship Week, nobody (and I mean nobody) will have more pressure than participants in one-bid leagues. To have your season and dreams riding on one week of play, well, that is pressure.
One-bids: America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy (regular-season champ), Metro Atlantic, Mid-American, Mid-Continent, MEAC, Mountain West, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Sun Belt
Where we stand: 18 bids gone, 47 remaining
Bubble-busting conferences: 3
These three leagues can spoil the hopes of bubble teams from all over the country. Players, coaches and fans of teams on or around the bubble should cheer for, pray for, and send all metaphysical good vibes to the favorites of the following leagues, because these three teams are locks.
If the favorites of these leagues win, these are one-bid leagues. If they lose, subtract the number of losers from the number of bubble spots available.
Atlantic 10: George Washington
Patriot: Bucknell
West Coast: Gonzaga
Where we stand: 21 bids gone, 44 remaining
Rock-solid, no argument, forget-about-it locks: 33
The following teams, grouped by conference for organizational purposes only, are revealed below. It would be just as fruitless to argue with this list as to get into a land war in Asia.
ACC (4): Duke, North Carolina, Boston College, NC State
Big 12 (3): Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma
Big East (6): UConn, Villanova, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Marquette, Georgetown
Big Ten (6): Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Illinois, Michigan
Colonial (1): George Mason
Conference USA (1): Memphis
Missouri Valley (4): Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Missouri State, Creighton
Pac-10 (3): UCLA, Washington, Arizona
SEC (4): Tennessee, LSU, Florida, Alabama
WAC (1): Nevada
Where We Stand: 18 One-bids + 33 locks + 3 bubble-busters = 54 bids gone, 11 remaining
Bubble Teams: 22
In addition to the chance to grab an automatic bid that comes with winning a league tournament championship, the following teams still have a legitimate chance to grab one of the 11 remaining at-large spots in the 65-team field. These are the teams on the bubble, and here is what each team has to do to be in the field: They have to win. Out of this list of teams, the field will be set. Here is the way I rank them:
Cincinnati (The Bearcats have won enough and just cannot afford to fall apart)
Indiana (Enough quality wins to get in, and good enough to win once they're in)
Syracuse (Great schedule, good team, but need to win a few going down the stretch)
Kentucky (Great schedule, good road record, not many Top 50 wins and needs more)
Creighton (Really solid team, especially defensively, and really good numbers)
Seton Hall (Some good wins, some blowout losses, and needs to win one or two more)
California (Weak schedule, but high up in league standings and a few quality wins)
Colorado (Not a great schedule, inconsistent but shows flashes, needs to do more)
Hofstra (Good team, not a sexy resumι, 16-2 against teams outside the Top 100)
Southern Illinois (Excellent defensively, not a scoring team, five Top 50 wins in MVC)
Bradley (Numbers are great, but seven wins against the bottom third of Division I)
Air Force (Some good wins, and a good team that needs to do more)
Miami (Some good wins, some disturbing losses, needs to do more)
Maryland (Bad record against Top 50 and road, and last 10 games are uninspiring)
Minnesota (Tough slate, some quality wins, needs to do more)
UAB (Weak schedule, 12 wins against the bottom third of Division I)
Houston: (Weak schedule, inconsistent results, with giant-killing and cupcake-losing)
Florida State (Has not beaten anybody of note)
Virginia (More bad losses than good wins)
Utah State (13-5 against teams ranked outside the RPI Top 100)
Old Dominion (Some good wins, but nothing to really impress)
San Diego State (Weak schedule, didn't beat anybody)
UNC Wilmington (Weak schedule, 15-1 against teams ranked outside of RPI Top 100)
There you have it. I still think we should play the games anyway.
Jay Bilas, a college basketball analyst for ESPN, is a regular contributor to Insider
http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/insider/columns/story?columnist=bilas_jay&id=2349445 (ESPN Insider subscription required)
This is all you need (before more games are played)
By Jay Bilas
Special to ESPN Insider
Archive
Ever heard of Nostradamus? Ha! A rank amateur! This is the official, fully authorized, bubble-approved, obsequious, smug and arrogant guide to figuring out the NCAA Tournament bubble picture.
There is no further need for the selection committee to watch games, review records or have thoughtful discussion. All one needs to do is to read and comprehend this tome, and all will be crystal clear. Yes friends, read this, and you too will have all of the answers, just like us talking heads on TV!
Warning: This Bubble Guide is for amusement only. If you are a player or coach, please do not cease playing or coaching to the best of your ability, for slacking off thinking you have it made or are cooked might alter the rock-solid perfect projections of this guide. Similarly, if you are a rabid fan, please do not change any flight or hotel arrangements based upon these projections, as perfect and on the mark as they might be. To have the global economy affected by this projection would be unfortunate. And, please, wagering based upon these projections is discouraged, as is shooting fish in a barrel.
One-bid Conferences: 18
These 18 leagues will get one bid, and one bid only -- the automatic bid from the league championship. When you are thinking about all of the pressure that is on players and coaches during Championship Week, nobody (and I mean nobody) will have more pressure than participants in one-bid leagues. To have your season and dreams riding on one week of play, well, that is pressure.
One-bids: America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy (regular-season champ), Metro Atlantic, Mid-American, Mid-Continent, MEAC, Mountain West, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Sun Belt
Where we stand: 18 bids gone, 47 remaining
Bubble-busting conferences: 3
These three leagues can spoil the hopes of bubble teams from all over the country. Players, coaches and fans of teams on or around the bubble should cheer for, pray for, and send all metaphysical good vibes to the favorites of the following leagues, because these three teams are locks.
If the favorites of these leagues win, these are one-bid leagues. If they lose, subtract the number of losers from the number of bubble spots available.
Atlantic 10: George Washington
Patriot: Bucknell
West Coast: Gonzaga
Where we stand: 21 bids gone, 44 remaining
Rock-solid, no argument, forget-about-it locks: 33
The following teams, grouped by conference for organizational purposes only, are revealed below. It would be just as fruitless to argue with this list as to get into a land war in Asia.
ACC (4): Duke, North Carolina, Boston College, NC State
Big 12 (3): Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma
Big East (6): UConn, Villanova, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Marquette, Georgetown
Big Ten (6): Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Illinois, Michigan
Colonial (1): George Mason
Conference USA (1): Memphis
Missouri Valley (4): Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Missouri State, Creighton
Pac-10 (3): UCLA, Washington, Arizona
SEC (4): Tennessee, LSU, Florida, Alabama
WAC (1): Nevada
Where We Stand: 18 One-bids + 33 locks + 3 bubble-busters = 54 bids gone, 11 remaining
Bubble Teams: 22
In addition to the chance to grab an automatic bid that comes with winning a league tournament championship, the following teams still have a legitimate chance to grab one of the 11 remaining at-large spots in the 65-team field. These are the teams on the bubble, and here is what each team has to do to be in the field: They have to win. Out of this list of teams, the field will be set. Here is the way I rank them:
Cincinnati (The Bearcats have won enough and just cannot afford to fall apart)
Indiana (Enough quality wins to get in, and good enough to win once they're in)
Syracuse (Great schedule, good team, but need to win a few going down the stretch)
Kentucky (Great schedule, good road record, not many Top 50 wins and needs more)
Creighton (Really solid team, especially defensively, and really good numbers)
Seton Hall (Some good wins, some blowout losses, and needs to win one or two more)
California (Weak schedule, but high up in league standings and a few quality wins)
Colorado (Not a great schedule, inconsistent but shows flashes, needs to do more)
Hofstra (Good team, not a sexy resumι, 16-2 against teams outside the Top 100)
Southern Illinois (Excellent defensively, not a scoring team, five Top 50 wins in MVC)
Bradley (Numbers are great, but seven wins against the bottom third of Division I)
Air Force (Some good wins, and a good team that needs to do more)
Miami (Some good wins, some disturbing losses, needs to do more)
Maryland (Bad record against Top 50 and road, and last 10 games are uninspiring)
Minnesota (Tough slate, some quality wins, needs to do more)
UAB (Weak schedule, 12 wins against the bottom third of Division I)
Houston: (Weak schedule, inconsistent results, with giant-killing and cupcake-losing)
Florida State (Has not beaten anybody of note)
Virginia (More bad losses than good wins)
Utah State (13-5 against teams ranked outside the RPI Top 100)
Old Dominion (Some good wins, but nothing to really impress)
San Diego State (Weak schedule, didn't beat anybody)
UNC Wilmington (Weak schedule, 15-1 against teams ranked outside of RPI Top 100)
There you have it. I still think we should play the games anyway.
Jay Bilas, a college basketball analyst for ESPN, is a regular contributor to Insider