Jamarotology

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Once again, the thread must go on.

I'm going to go ahead and post all my predictions from the temporary board here. That way it will be easy to reference them all. Looks like posts made on the old board are gone forever. :(

Through games of Sunday, Feb 5

Conferences with no atlarge hopes: 17
Conferences with little atlarge hope: 1 (Mountain West)
Remaining spots assuming no upsets in conf. tourneys: 47

1 Bid Leagues (19):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy League, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, *Mountain West, Northeast, OVC, Southern, Southland, Sunbelt, SWAC

*The Mountain West conference is not a lock for being a 1 bid league, but they don’t have any teams “in” right now either. Think of them as the 18th 1 bid conference for now. However, I separated them to show that they can still change that status. The other 17 will be 1 bid conferences no matter what happens.

Locks (26):
Boston College, Connecticut, Creighton, Duke, Florida, Georgetown, George Washington, Gonzaga, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, LSU, Memphis, Michigan, Michigan State, NC State, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Texas, UCLA, Villanova, West Virginia, Wichita State

Almost Locks (7):
Bucknell, Kansas, Kentucky, Marquette, Oklahoma, Seton Hall, Wisconsin

Comfortably In (1):
Nevada

Just In (4):
Colorado, Iowa State, Syracuse, UAB

Last 9 In (in order) (9):
Arizona
Washington
Missouri State
Miami (FL)
Bradley
Arkansas
Cincinnati
Maryland
George Mason


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - cut line - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Last 8 Out (In Order) (8 ) :
California
Alabama
Xavier
Louisville
Temple
Florida State
Southern Illinois
Utah State

Still in the running (5):
Air Force, Hofstra, Nebraska, Old Dominion, Vanderbilt


If the season ended today, there would be 18 one-bid leagues no matter who won the conference tourneys. If there were no upsets in other conference tourneys, then the WCC (Gonzaga), Patriot League (Bucknell), the Colonial (George Mason), the A-10 (George Washington), and the WAC (Nevada) would all become 1-bid leagues also. Using these assumptions, here is a breakdown of bids per conference. Remember, upsets in conference tourneys will take spots away from teams on the bubble.

Conference Breakdown right now:
Big East - 9
Big Ten - 7
ACC - 6
MVC – 5
Big 12 – 5
SEC – 5
Pac 10 - 3
C-USA - 2
1 Bid Conf – 23

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Through games of Thursday, Feb 9

Conferences with no atlarge hopes: 17
Conferences with little atlarge hope: 1 (Mountain West)
Remaining spots assuming no upsets in conf. tourneys: 47

1 Bid Leagues (18):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy League, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, *Mountain West, Northeast, OVC, Southern, Southland, Sunbelt, SWAC

*The Mountain West conference is not a lock for being a 1 bid league, but they don’t have any teams “in” right now either. Think of them as the 18th 1 bid conference for now. However, I separated them to show that they can still change that status. The other 17 will be 1 bid conferences no matter what happens.

Locks (27):
Boston College, Connecticut, Creighton, Duke, Florida, Georgetown, George Washington, Gonzaga, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, LSU, Memphis, Michigan, Michigan State, NC State, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Texas, UCLA, Villanova, West Virginia, Wichita State

Almost Locks (3):
Indiana, Seton Hall, Wisconsin

Comfortably In (4):
Bucknell, Marquette, Nevada, Kentucky

Just In (4):
Arizona, Cincinnati, Syracuse, Washington

Last 9 In (in order) (9):
George Mason
Maryland
California
Missouri State
Alabama
Utah State
Xavier
Arkansas
Iowa State

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - cut line - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Last 3 Out (In Order) (3):
Southern Illinois
Bradley
UAB


Still in the running (7):
Florida State, Hofstra, Louisville, Miami (FL), Old Dominion, San Diego State, Temple


If the season ended today, there would be 18 one-bid leagues no matter who won the conference tourneys. If there were no upsets in other conference tourneys, then the WCC (Gonzaga), Patriot League (Bucknell), the Colonial (George Mason), and Conference USA (Memphis) would all become 1-bid leagues also. Using these assumptions, here is a breakdown of bids per conference. Remember, upsets in conference tourneys will take spots away from teams on the bubble.

Conference Breakdown right now:
Big East - 9
Big Ten - 7
SEC – 6
ACC - 5
MVC – 4
Big 12 – 4
Pac 10 – 4
WAC – 2
A-10 - 2
1 Bid Conf – 22


I have UAB out despite an RPI of 46 and a decent record vs. the top 100. They have 6 games left. 5 are against teams 230 or worse, and the other is against Memphis. Those 5 games will hurt their RPI significantly, even if they win, so unless they can beat Memphis, they really don't have any way of getting an atlarge bid.

Wisconsin Milwaukee is another team I don't have in, despite an RPI of 39. This may sound weird, but I feel pretty confident. In fact, I don't even have them listed in the group as still in the running. Their remaining games are vs #233, #140, #37, & #205. With 3 of these 4 being at home, they could probably win all 4 and still drop to the low 40s of the RPI heading into their conference tourney. That wouldn't be good enough for them to be able to suffer a loss in their conference tourney and still be dancing. The Horizon is ranked 15th as a conference.

On the flip side, Kansas is a lock despite an RPI of 47. Pomeroy ratings have them at 14, and they are currently one of the hottest teams in the country. At this point, they would have to absolutely collapse to not make the tourney.

I only see 10 teams remaining with any chance to try and knock out teams from my currently field of 65. The top 2 of those are MVC teams. I only listed 3 teams in order, and then grouped the other 7 below them. I did this because I think there is a pretty big gap there. Realistically, I would be surprised if anyone gets in that isn't currrently in my last 3 in or better. Because of this, I see almost no way that the MVC doesn't get 4 bids at this point. 5 even seems reasonable. I'll say:

3 bids - 2%
4 bids - 62%
5 bids - 33%
6 bids - 3%

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

6 Bids!!!! :)

Through games of Sunday, Feb 12

Conferences with no atlarge hopes: 18
Remaining spots assuming no upsets in conf. tourneys: 47

1 Bid Leagues (18) :
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy League, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Mountain West, Northeast, OVC, Southern, Southland, Sunbelt, SWAC

Locks (27):
Boston College, Connecticut, Duke, Florida, Georgetown, George Washington, Gonzaga, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, LSU, Memphis, Michigan, Michigan State, NC State, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Texas, UCLA, Villanova, West Virginia, Wichita State, Wisconsin

Almost Locks (4):
Creighton, Indiana, Seton Hall, Washington

Comfortably In (4):
Arizona, Bucknell, Nevada, Southern Illinois

Last 12 In (in order):
George Mason
Marquette
Syracuse
Alabama
Missouri State
Kentucky
California
Arkansas
Cincinnati
Maryland
UAB
Bradley

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - cut line - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Last 12 Out (In Order):
Colorado
Utah State
Florida State
Iowa State
Hofstra
NC Wilmington
Air Force
Vanderbilt
Temple
Xavier
Miami (FL)
Louisville


Unrealistic chance, but the list continues anyway:
South Carolina
Wisconsin Milwaukee
Virginia
San Diego State
Virginia Commonwealth
Providence
Akron
Minnesota
Houston
Stanford
Notre Dame
Old Dominion
Western Kentucky
Hawaii
Oklahoma State

This time, I listed pretty much every team that has any chance whatsoever at an atlarge bid. For many of the teams, their next loss will be enough to knock them off for good.

If the season ended today, there would be 18 one-bid leagues no matter who won the conference tourneys. If there were no upsets in other conference tourneys, then the WCC (Gonzaga), Patriot League (Bucknell), the Colonial (George Mason), the WAC (Nevada), and the Atlantic 10 (George Washington) would all become 1-bid leagues also. Using these assumptions, here is a breakdown of bids per conference. Remember, upsets in conference tourneys will take spots away from teams on the bubble.

Conference Breakdown right now:
Big East - 9
Big Ten - 7
MVC – 6
SEC – 6
ACC - 5
Pac 10 – 4
Big 12 – 3
C-USA - 2
1 Bid Conf – 23

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

6 Bids Again!!!

Through games of Wednesday, Feb 15

Conferences with no atlarge hopes: 17
Conferences with little atlarge hope: 1
Remaining spots assuming no upsets in conf. tourneys: 47

1 Bid Leagues (18 ):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy League, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, *Mountain West, Northeast, OVC, Southern, Southland, Sunbelt, SWAC

*1 Bid league right now, but still possible to earn a 2nd bid.

Locks (28 ) :
Boston College, Connecticut, Duke, Florida, Georgetown, George Washington, Gonzaga, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, LSU, Memphis, Michigan, Michigan State, NC State, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Seton Hall, Tennessee, Texas, UCLA, Villanova, West Virginia, Wichita State, Wisconsin

Almost Locks (4):
Bucknell, Creighton, Nevada, Washington

Comfortably In (4):
Arizona, George Mason, Indiana, Southern Illinois

Last 11 In (in order):
Marquette
Missouri State
Cincinnati
Kentucky
Colorado
Alabama
Syracuse
California
UNC-Wilmington
Bradley
UAB

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - cut line - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Last 8 Out (In Order):
Arkansas
Utah State
Maryland
Air Force
Hofstra
Temple
South Carolina
Florida State

Every team that I have below this point is in desperation mode. Some would have to win out until their conference championship games. Some wouldn’t need that, but would need to win something like 3 out of 4 against remaining top 25 competition. Needless to say, I will be surprised if even 1 of these teams manages to work their way into an atlarge bid, but for now, I’ll keep a list going. Anyone not listed below has absolutely zero hope of an atlarge bid, regardless of how they finish.

Unrealistic chance, but the list continues anyway:
Xavier, Miami (FL), Iowa State, Vanderbilt, Louisville, Virginia, San Diego State, Akron, Minnesota, Houston, Stanford, Western Kentucky, Hawaii, UTEP, BYU

If the season ended today, there would be 18 one-bid leagues no matter who won the conference tourneys. If there were no upsets in other conference tourneys, then the WCC (Gonzaga), Patriot League (Bucknell), the WAC (Nevada), and the Atlantic 10 (George Washington) would all become 1-bid leagues also. Using these assumptions, here is a breakdown of bids per conference. Remember, upsets in conference tourneys will take spots away from teams on the bubble.

Conference Breakdown right now:
Big East - 8
Big Ten - 7
MVC – 6
SEC – 6
ACC - 4
Big 12 – 4
Pac 10 – 4
C-USA – 2
CAA - 2
1 Bid Conf – 22

With UAB and UNC-Wilmington so close to the bubble, it is very conceiveable that this year there could be as few as 7 multi-bid conferences. That would be amazing, considering past years have included 11, 11, 12, and 11 multi-bid conferences. This is one reason I'm so big on the Valley getting a lot of bids. We don't have to "steal bids from the big boys" this year. We get to "steal bids from the other mid-majors"!!!! If the MVC does well Saturday in the Bracket Busters, I will officially be changing my proclamation from 4 bids to 5 bids.

Like I've said before, fewer conferences with multi-bid chances is good for us. That makes fewer conference tourneys where upsets matter. Also, by packing all the atlarge teams into only a few conferences, it will take a huge upset in the top conferences for those tourneys to matter. Heck, I have 6 teams from the MVC in right now. That means Illinois State, Drake, Indiana State, or Evansvile would have to win it all in order to take up an unexpected bid!!! Similar situations hold true for other conferences. I have 2 in for the CAA, one of which is right on the bubble. It is very hard to see them getting that number up to 3, regardless of who wins the conference tourney.

Right now, for the Valley I see:
3 bids - 2%
4 bids - 44%
5 bids - 39%
6 bids - 15%

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Through games of Sunday, Feb 19

Conferences with no (reasonable) atlarge hopes: 17
Conferences with little atlarge hope: 1
Remaining spots assuming no upsets in conf. tourneys: 47

1 Bid Leagues (18 ):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy League, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, *Mountain West, Northeast, OVC, Southern, Southland, Sunbelt, SWAC

*1 Bid league right now, but still possible to earn a 2nd bid.

Locks (32):
Boston College, Connecticut, Creighton, Duke, Florida, George Mason, Georgetown, George Washington, Gonzaga, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, LSU, Marquette, Memphis, Michigan, Michigan State, Nevada, NC State, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Texas, UCLA, Villanova, Washington, West Virginia, Wichita State, Wisconsin

Almost Locks (3):
Alabama, Bucknell, Seton Hall

Comfortably In (4):
Arizona, Cincinnati, Kentucky, Missouri State

Last 8 In (in order):
NC Wilmington
Syracuse
Bradley
California
Arkansas
Indiana
Colorado
Utah State

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - cut line - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Last 7 Out (In Order):
Southern Illinois
UAB
Hofstra
Air Force
Maryland
Temple
Florida State

Every team that I have below this point is in desperation mode. Some would have to win out until their conference championship games. Some wouldn’t need that, but would need to win something like 3 out of 4 against remaining top 25 competition. Needless to say, I will be surprised if even 1 of these teams manages to work their way into an atlarge bid, but for now, I’ll keep a list going.

Unrealistic chance, but the list continues anyway:
Vanderbilt, Xavier, Minnesota, San Diego State, South Carolina, Western Kentucky, Houston, UTEP, Virginia, BYU, Texas A&M, Louisville, Oklahoma State

If the season ended today, there would be 18 one-bid leagues no matter who won the conference tourneys. If there were no upsets in other conference tourneys, then the WCC (Gonzaga), Conference USA (Memphis), Patriot League (Bucknell), and the Atlantic 10 (George Washington) would all become 1-bid leagues also. Using these assumptions, here is a breakdown of bids per conference. Remember, upsets in conference tourneys will take spots away from teams on the bubble.

Conference Breakdown right now:
Big East - 8
Big Ten - 7
SEC – 7
MVC – 5
ACC - 4
Big 12 – 4
Pac 10 – 4
CAA – 2
WAC - 2
1 Bid Conf – 22

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Through games of Tuesday, Feb 21

Conferences with no (reasonable) atlarge hopes: 17
Conferences with little atlarge hope: 1
Remaining spots assuming no upsets in conf. tourneys: 47

1 Bid Leagues (18 ):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy League, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, *Mountain West, Northeast, OVC, Southern, Southland, Sunbelt, SWAC

*1 Bid league right now, but still possible to earn a 2nd bid.

Locks (32):
Boston College, Connecticut, Creighton, Duke, Florida, George Mason, Georgetown, George Washington, Gonzaga, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, LSU, Marquette, Memphis, Michigan, Michigan State, Nevada, NC State, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Texas, UCLA, Villanova, Washington, West Virginia, Wichita State, Wisconsin

Comfortably In (9):
Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Bucknell, Cincinnati, Kentucky, Missouri State, Seton Hall, Syracuse

Last 6 In (in order):
NC Wilmington
California
Bradley
Indiana
Utah State
Colorado

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - cut line - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Last 6 Out (In Order):
UAB
Hofstra
Air Force
Maryland
Florida State
Temple

Every team that I have below this point is in desperation mode. Some would have to win out until their conference championship games. Some wouldn’t need that, but would need to win something like 3 out of 4 against remaining top 25 competition. Needless to say, I will be surprised if even 1 of these teams manages to work their way into an atlarge bid, but for now, I’ll keep a list going.

Unrealistic chance, but the list continues anyway:
Southern Illinois
Virginia
Vanderbilt
Minnesota
San Diego State
South Carolina
Western Kentucky
Houston
Texas A&M
UTEP
BYU
Xavier
Louisville
Oklahoma State


If the season ended today, there would be 18 one-bid leagues no matter who won the conference tourneys. If there were no upsets in other conference tourneys, then the Atlantic 10 (George Washington), Conference USA (Memphis), the Patriot League (Bucknell), and the WCC (Gonzaga) would all become 1-bid leagues also. Using these assumptions, here is a breakdown of bids per conference. Remember, upsets in conference tourneys will take spots away from teams on the bubble.

Conference Breakdown right now:
Big East - 9
Big Ten - 7
SEC – 6
MVC – 5
ACC - 4
Big 12 – 4
Pac 10 – 4
CAA – 2
WAC - 2
1 Bid Conf – 22


NOTES:
SIU pretty much did themselves in last night with the loss to Evansville. I can't see them getting an atlarge bid now unless they manage to win against UNI on Saturday and then make it to the championship game in St. Louis. Even then, they would be squarely on the bubble.

I think Bradley has a solid chance if they can win tonight at UNI and then take care of business on Saturday. If they lose tonight, they will need a good win or two in St. Louis, but an atlarge bid will still be possible.

MSU can make themselves a lock for a bid with a win tonight at then a win against Creighton Saturday on senior night. If they fail in one of those 2 games, a win or two in St. Louis should do the job.

Creighton, WSU, and UNI can only miss the tourney if they lose their next 3 games. Even then, they would all still have a shot on selection Sunday. Basically, the next win for any of these 3 makes them a lock with no possible scenario of missing out.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Through games of Sunday, Feb 26

Conferences with no (reasonable) atlarge hopes: 17
Remaining spots assuming no upsets in conf. tourneys: 48

1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy League, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, OVC, Southern, Southland, Sunbelt, SWAC

Locks (37):
Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Boston College, Bucknell, Connecticut, Creighton, Duke, Florida, George Mason, Georgetown, George Washington, Gonzaga, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, LSU, Marquette, Memphis, Michigan, Michigan State, Missouri State, Nevada, NC State, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Texas, UCLA, Villanova, Washington, West Virginia, Wichita State, Wisconsin

Comfortably In (5):
Bradley, Cincinnati, Hofstra, NC Wilmington, Syracuse

Last 6 In (in order):
Indiana
Kentucky
Air Force
UAB
California
Colorado

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - cut line - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Last 6 Out (In Order):
Southern Illinois
Seton Hall
Utah State
Temple
Florida State
Texas A&M


I will be shocked if anyone that I don’t have listed manages to get an atlarge bid. I think my list is pretty much comprehensive. I feel that there are a total of 54 teams in the running for atlarge bids should they not win their conference tourneys. Right now, 48 of those 54 would be in, as there are currently 17 auto-bids going towards “undeserving” teams to fill out the rest of the field of 65.

If the season ended today, there would be 17 one-bid leagues no matter who won the conference tourneys. If there were no upsets in other conference tourneys, then the Atlantic 10 (George Washington), the Mountain West (Air Force), the Patriot League (Bucknell), the WAC (Nevada), and the WCC (Gonzaga) would all become 1-bid leagues also. Using these assumptions, here is a breakdown of bids per conference. Remember, upsets in conference tourneys will take spots away from teams on the bubble.

Conference Breakdown right now:
Big East – 8 . . (min: 7 max: 9)
Big Ten – 7 . . . (min: 6 max: 7)
SEC – 6 . . . . (min: 5 max: 6)
MVC – 5 . . . . (min: 4 max: 6)
ACC – 4 . . . . (min: 4 max: 5)
Big 12 – 4 . . . (min: 3 max: 5)
Pac 10 – 4 . . . (min: 3 max: 4)
CAA – 3 . . . . (min: 2 max: 3)
C-USA – 2 . . . (min: 1 max: 2)
1 Bid Conf – 22

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Through games of Tuesday, Feb 28

1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy League, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, OVC, Southern, Southland, Sunbelt, SWAC

Top Seeds (16):
1) Connecticut, Duke, Memphis, Villanova
2) Illinois, LSU, Ohio State, Texas
3) George Washington, Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, Tennessee
4) Iowa, Kansas, North Carolina, West Virginia

Other Locks (21):
Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Boston College, Bucknell, Creighton, Florida, George Mason, Georgetown, Marquette, Michigan, Michigan State, Missouri State, Nevada, NC State, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma, UCLA, Washington, Wichita State, Wisconsin

Comfortably In (4):
Bradley, Hofstra, NC Wilmington, Syracuse

Last 7 In (in order):
Indiana
Kentucky
Air Force
Cincinnati
UAB
California
Colorado

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - cut line - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Last 6 Out (In Order):
Seton Hall
Southern Illinois
Utah State
Temple
Florida State
Texas A&M


I will be shocked if anyone that I don’t have listed manages to get an atlarge bid. I think my list is pretty much comprehensive. I feel that there are a total of 54 teams in the running for atlarge bids should they not win their conference tourneys. Right now, 48 of those 54 would be in, as there are currently 17 auto-bids going towards “undeserving” teams to fill out the rest of the field of 65.

If the season ended today, there would be 17 one-bid leagues no matter who won the conference tourneys. If there were no upsets in other conference tourneys, then the Atlantic 10 (George Washington), the Mountain West (Air Force), the Patriot League (Bucknell), the WAC (Nevada), and the WCC (Gonzaga) would all become 1-bid leagues also. Using these assumptions, here is a breakdown of bids per conference. Remember, upsets in conference tourneys will take spots away from teams on the bubble.

Conference Breakdown right now:
Big East – 8 . (min: 7 max: 9)
Big Ten – 7 .. (min: 6 max: 7)
SEC – 6 . .. . (min: 5 max: 6)
MVC – 5 . .. . (min: 4 max: 6)
ACC – 4 . .. . (min: 4 max: 5)
Big 12 – 4 . . (min: 3 max: 5)
Pac 10 – 4 . . (min: 3 max: 4)
CAA – 3 . .. . (min: 2 max: 3)
C-USA – 2 . .. (min: 1 max: 2)
1 Bid Conf – 22

[blueblood]

After reading numerous posts, threads, articles, and opinions on brackets, this doesn't really look like rocket science. If you are more inclined to use the RPI formula, the MVC gets 6 teams in. If you don't, we get 4. Less than 4 something isn't right with the process. I am sure as much as the selection committee wants to deny it, some bias will exist. It will be interesting if nothing else.

[jt45]

Yeah Freakn Haw this amusing thread is back. Oh yeah, what's up with Valley Talk Genius......lmfao!

[TheAsianSensation]

We now agree on 64 of 65 teams. I have Utah St just in, and Indiana just out (a single win over slumping MSU isn't going to bring them back from the dead all of a sudden, after the way they slumped). Utah St is probably stretching it as well, but there's a lack of quality teams there.

http://tasbracketology.blogspot.com/

[Fraydog]

I'd like to think we are sitting on the cusp of something special here with as many teams as we have that could possibly get in.

Now Lunardi has SIU as one of the last four in. If we get to the final, do you think we could be in the bracket? Or will we be the odd man out with the ACC guy wanting to protect his own? :mad:

[Hail Red & White]

I still say 4 is all the MVC will get this year, with Bradley and SIU probably being out of the mix. However, a lot of wacky stuff can happen between now and March 12th. Teams will play themselves into and out of contention between now and then. At the end of the day, the disappointed teams that did not make the field of 65 can look at several games they lost during the course of the season. Turning those L's into W's could have made a big difference. To wit, Bradley has had some nice wins along the way, but if they fail to qualify for the NCAA's this year, they need look no further than tough road losses to Wichita State, Butler, Drake, and Creighton. Those were all winnable games for the Braves. To me, they offset solid wins against Creighton, Southern Illinois, DePaul, Missouri State, Western Kentucky, and the sweep of Northern Iowa.

[ceaser150]

So, what did FSU and Texas A&M's wins do to their chances last night? Although, maybe I should not refer to it as a Texas A&M win but rather a Texas and PJ Tucker choke job.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

This will be my last update until early next week. St. Louis here I come!!!

Through games of Wednesday, Mar 1

1 Bid Leagues (17):
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy League, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Continent, Northeast, OVC, Southern, Southland, Sunbelt, SWAC

Top Seeds (16):
1) Connecticut, Duke, Memphis, Villanova
2) Illinois, LSU, Ohio State, Texas
3) George Washington, Gonzaga, North Carolina, Pittsburgh
4) Iowa, Kansas, Tennessee, West Virginia

Other Locks (21):
Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Boston College, Bucknell, Creighton, Florida, George Mason, Georgetown, Marquette, Michigan, Michigan State, Missouri State, Nevada, NC State, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma, UCLA, Washington, Wichita State, Wisconsin

Comfortably In (5):
Bradley, Hofstra, Kentucky, NC Wilmington, Syracuse

Last 6 In (in order):
Texas A&M
Air Force
Indiana
Cincinnati
UAB
California

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - cut line - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Last 5 Out (In Order):
Florida State
Southern Illinois
Colorado
Seton Hall
Utah State


I will be shocked if anyone that I don’t have listed manages to get an atlarge bid. I think my list is pretty much comprehensive. I feel that there are a total of 54 teams in the running for atlarge bids should they not win their conference tourneys. Right now, 48 of those 54 would be in, as there are currently 17 auto-bids going towards “undeserving” teams to fill out the rest of the field of 65.

If the season ended today, there would be 17 one-bid leagues no matter who won the conference tourneys. If there were no upsets in other conference tourneys, then the Atlantic 10 (George Washington), the Mountain West (Air Force), the Patriot League (Bucknell), the WAC (Nevada), and the WCC (Gonzaga) would all become 1-bid leagues also. Using these assumptions, here is a breakdown of bids per conference. Remember, upsets in conference tourneys will take spots away from teams on the bubble.


Conference Breakdown right now:
Big East – 8 . (min: 7 max: 9)
Big Ten – 7 .. (min: 6 max: 7)
SEC – 6 . .. . (min: 5 max: 6)
MVC – 5 . .. . (min: 4 max: 6)
ACC – 4 . .. . (min: 4 max: 5)
Big 12 – 4 . . (min: 3 max: 5)
Pac 10 – 4 . . (min: 3 max: 4)
CAA – 3 . .. . (min: 2 max: 3)
C-USA – 2 . .. (min: 1 max: 2)
1 Bid Conf – 22




The craziest scenario:

I'm putting this here just because I want to be able to say I told you so if it happens.

If:

1) Indiana State or Drake beats SIU for the tournament championship on Sunday

&

2) Bradley beats Creighton

Then:

I predict 7 bids!!!!



I don't think it will happen, but I just wanted to throw that out there.

More realistically, if SIU makes the championship game, and Bradley beats Creighton, I predict 6 bids!!!

If SIU makes the championship game or Bradley beats Creighton, I predict 5 bids, minimum.

[skinny_uncle]

"The craziest scenario:

I'm putting this here just because I want to be able to say I told you so if it happens.

If:

1) Indiana State or Drake beats SIU for the tournament championship on Sunday

&

2) Bradley beats Creighton

Then:

I predict 7 bids!!!!



I don't think it will happen, but I just wanted to throw that out there."

I mentioned this possibility on Salukitalk recently but no one took it seriously. I'm glad someone else had the same thought. Maybe I ain't so crazy after all.

[Little Eddie]

Is Hawaii a bubble team?? Listening to New Mex St beat them right now...early in the first half...up 16-8

[cjp27]

I hope you're right about the number of bids, and in a perfect world, I think you are, because you really do your homework. However, I have a strong fear that the committee is looking to bend some Valley teams over this year. The problem I see is that outside of WSU and possibly Creighton, there are no absolute 100% locks for the tourney. Outside of WSU, what you have is 5 other teams that are very deserving, but with very little to differentiate between them. Deep down, I think we'll get four unless some crazy things happen, as this league deserves, at the very least, four bids. If I had to put the Valley teams in order from most likely to least likely to get a bid, it would be: WSU, CU, MSU, BU, UNI, SIU. I think any one of these six, and hopefully a few of them have what it takes to make a run to the sweet 16.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Just got home last night, and I have a busy day today, so this may be all I have time for today.

Well, funny thing happened. My prediction about SIU making the championship game and Bradley beating Creighton can now be tested. I said if it happened, we get 6 bids. Well, here's how I feel now.

The last week has been the best week for bubble team's, ever!! The MVC tournament went exactly how it needed to for the Valley to get the max number of bids. All 9 games!!! Crazy. Unfortunately, the rest of the country has gone crazy as well. I would have never imagined

Florida State would beat Duke and then win at Miami
Texas A&M would beat Texas
UAB would beat Memphis
Seton Hall would win at Pittsburgh
Hofstra and UNC Wilmington would both be in the Colonial title game
Indiana would win at Michigan to extend their winning streak to 4 games
Colorado would beat Iowa State

Obviously some of the above results were going to happen, but who would have thought all of them?!?! Anyway, on to what matters, the MVC.

SIU is in. No arguing that.

WSU is in. No arguing that.

Bradley is in. You can try to argue against them, but they are very hot (won 7 of last 8, 11 of last 14), have 7 top 50 wins, and an RPI of 34. That kind of RPI only misses out if you have some big question mark somewhere. Finishing well with that kind of RPI means Bradley is a lock.

UNI is in. They finished poorly, but they had a great season as a whole, and the win over Missouri State on Friday sealed their bid. There aren't 34 atlarge teams better than UNI. Not even close.

MSU is in. Strong finish. RPI = 21. Enough said.

Well, that makes 5 teams in, and I haven't even looked at Creighton yet. I thought they were a lock a week ago, regardless of whether or not they won any more games. Unfortunately for them, the wave of winning bubble teams has slid them onto the bubble. After briefly skimming over the RPI and scores from the weekend, my gut says 50-50 chance they make it. I can't really say more than that until I spend time and compare them to other bubble teams.

So, 50% chance of 5 bids, 50% chance of 6 bids. I like it!!!!

[getreal4]

Jamar the Valley kool aid has taken control take two aspirin & drink lots of filtered water while watching lots of ESPN & reading Lunardi's comments then report back to us with a clearer head :D

After a weekend of too much Basketball my estimate:

6 bids 5%
5 bids 20%
4 bids 54%
3 bids 20%
2 bids 1%

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

getreal4, I'll be quoting your post Sunday night or Monday morning. I'll try not to be too harsh, but I'll still have fun pointing out your flaws. :D

[getreal4]

I hope you can slam away Sunday night on my guestimates. Would be a great day for the Valley!

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Here is my last update of my RPI graph. I missed a few updates while I was in St. Louis, but the whole thing still looks pretty good. Obviously, the divisions between locks, bubble teams, and NIT teams are approximate, but I think that they help make the graph more readable.

One thing to remember is that I don't have Indiana State on this graph. They are important because they started conference play with a nice RPI, but finished in the mid-100s. This can help to counter any arguments that the Valley got its RPI by beating each other. These 6 teams did generally improve their RPIs by playing conference games, but some of the other 4 dropped significantly. Drake would be another example. A month or two ago, they were hovering around the top 100. Now, they are far from it.

The reason the Valley deserves 5 or 6 bids is because 6 teams distinguished themselves from the rest of the pack, something many other leagues can't say. If we get 6 teams dancing, we will have 0 teams in the NIT, which further explains how we could have more teams in the tourney than better conferences like the ACC.


http://usera.imagecave.com/JH4P/graph.bmp.jpg

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Through games of Tuesday, March 7


Automatic Bids:
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big South – Winthrop
Colonial – NC Wilmington
Horizon – Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Ivy League – Penn
MAAC – Iona
Mid-Continent – Oral Roberts
MVC – Southern Illinois
OVC – Murray State
Southern – Davidson
Sunbelt – South Alabama
WCC - Gonzaga

1 Bid Leagues Still To Finish (9):
America East, Big Sky, Big West, MAC, MEAC, *Mountain West, Northeast, Southland, SWAC

*No atlarge teams at the moment, but Air Force could potentially move inside the bubble and emerge as an atlarge team if they make it to the championship game of their tourney. If not, consider this a one-bid league.

Top Seeds (16):
1) Connecticut, Duke, Memphis, Villanova
2) Illinois, LSU, Ohio State, Texas
3) George Washington, Gonzaga, Iowa, North Carolina
4) Kansas, Tennessee, UCLA, Washington

Other Locks (20):
Arkansas, Boston College, Bradley, Bucknell, Florida, George Mason, Georgetown, Hofstra, Indiana, Marquette, Michigan State, Missouri State, Nevada, NC State, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Wichita State, Wisconsin

Last 9 In (in order):
Creighton
Kentucky
Arizona
UAB
Alabama
Florida State
Texas A&M
Michigan
Cincinnati

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - cut line - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Last 7 Out (In Order):
Seton Hall
Air Force
California
Colorado
Utah State
Syracuse
Maryland

While I’m at it, I might as well mention a few teams that are getting some publicity. Despite what you might hear from the media, I say that the following teams have absolutely no chance of getting an atlarge bid, regardless of how things play out.

San Diego State
BYU
Western Kentucky

I feel that there are a total of 51 teams in the running for atlarge bids should they not win their conference tourneys. Right now, 44 of those 51 would be in. This is because there are currently 21 spots either already claimed, or soon to be claimed by “undeserving” teams from one-bid leagues.

If the season ended today, there would be 19 one-bid leagues no matter who won the remaining conference tourneys. If there were no upsets in other conference tourneys, then the Atlantic 10 (George Washington), the Patriot League (Bucknell), and the WAC (Nevada) would all become 1-bid leagues also. Using these assumptions, here is a breakdown of bids per conference. Remember, upsets in conference tourneys will take spots away from teams on the bubble.

Conference Breakdown right now:
Big East – 7
Big Ten – 7
MVC – 6
SEC – 6
ACC – 5
Big 12 – 4
Pac 10 – 3
CAA – 3
C-USA – 2
1 Bid Conf – 22


NOTES:
My last 4 teams in (Florida State, Texas A&M, Michigan, Cincinnati) all need to win atleast 1 game in their conference tourneys. Any one of these 4 teams that loses their first tournament game is out, regardless of anything else going on around the country. Obviously, the same criteria applies to my last 7 teams out.

I have Creighton as a 95% lock to make the tourney. The other 5 Valley teams are in. 6 bids baby!!!! :cool:

If I had to guess, I would say the real cut line lies one game above where I have it. That leaves Cincinnati out. This would account for one upset team making the tournament, such as someone like UTEP winning the conf-USA tournament.

[jelly_81]

As long as Cincy beats the Cuse tommorrow(and they will) they are in. And there is just no way that Creighton is getting in. I would be great if they did. But to many forces combining to stop the Valley push. We probably on get 4, with an outside shot at 5.

[shocker3]

Jamar- Please remind us of how well you did last year?

[cpacmel]

I have Creighton as a 95% lock to make the tourney. The other 5 Valley teams are in. 6 bids baby!!!! :cool:


Jamar Howard 4 President.... are you sure want to make statements like the above? 95% lock?

[WSUbballer]

I like your enthusiasm jamar....but Creighton a near lock? There hasn't even been a major conference tournament played yet...which could steal bids...and you think 6 will make it? Geez...And I wouldn't even call Bradley a "lock" yet. I think they're "comfortably in" yes, but I wouldn't say theyre an absolute lock yet. Creighton's RPI has swelled into the lower 40's and depending on major conference tournament play...could drop even further. They didn't end the year too well and lost in their only game in St. Louis. I dunno if I would even call them a bubble team anymore. Just aint gonna happen... The Valley 6 bid...I would love...but let's get real....that ain't gonna happen.

I'll bet you your life savings and property that the Valley won't get 6 bids.
Seriously, I'm willing to put mine on the line...

P.S. Nice graph!

[ceaser150]

San Diego St. gets in if they make their championship game. The committee always gives special treatment to regular season champs. I also think Seton Hall is in. Both Syracuse and Cincy get in if Syracuse wins today. Creighton is the odd team out. They need a lot of help this week to get in.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Jamar- Please remind us of how well you did last year?

I'm disappointed that my thread from last year is lost forever, so I can't go back and look up anything. I do remember that on selection Sunday, I got 64 of the 65 teams right. I believe the only place I messed up was I had #46 Buffalo getting in instead of #49 UAB. I think of the major bracketologies to come out that day, 1 got all 65 right, most got 64 right, and 1 got 63 right, so I did fairly well. I'm still proud that I had UNI as the 3rd Valley team in for the last week or so leading up to selection Sunday. Many Valleytalkers doubted them all the way until it was made official.

I will say that right now, it is very hard to predict what will happen, but I think things will sort themselves out quite a bit in the next few days. There are quite a few on the bubble right now, but most of them are in. After a few more days, it will be more a matter of how to seed the last 10 teams in than a matter of determining who the last 10 teams in are. Basically, the 10, 11, and 12 seeds are all very equal teams this year.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Jamar Howard 4 President.... are you sure want to make statements like the above? 95% lock?

If games go well today, I will change that 95% lock status....

I'll make it 100% :D

Seriously, I can't wait for selection sunday. I feel good about it.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I like your enthusiasm jamar....but Creighton a near lock? There hasn't even been a major conference tournament played yet...which could steal bids...and you think 6 will make it? Geez...And I wouldn't even call Bradley a "lock" yet. I think they're "comfortably in" yes, but I wouldn't say theyre an absolute lock yet. Creighton's RPI has swelled into the lower 40's and depending on major conference tournament play...could drop even further. They didn't end the year too well and lost in their only game in St. Louis. I dunno if I would even call them a bubble team anymore. Just aint gonna happen... The Valley 6 bid...I would love...but let's get real....that ain't gonna happen.


Bradley has an RPI of 36, 20 wins, 7-6 vs the top 50, 9-7 vs. the top 100, finished winning 7 of 8, including a run to the championship game of the MVC tourney. Although they have 3 losses to teams 100+, none are against teams 180+, so their positive stats well outweigh their negative stats.

You wouldn't even call Creighton a bubble team? They have an RPI of 42, 19 wins, 6-6 vs the top 50, 7-7 vs the top 100, only 2 losses outside the top 100 (both in December when the Funk injury was still being adjusted for), and a mediocre, but not terrible, 6-4 record in their last 10 games. Creighton isn't quite a lock, but with a few losses by bubble teams today and tomorrow, they should be a lock come selection sunday.

Here's another stat. Only 4 teams in the last 5 years have had a top 42 RPI and missed the tourney. Basically, it happens to about 1 team per year. Last year, all 42 made it, so it isn't a set rule that 1 team in the top 42 has to make it.

This year, teams like Kentucky, Air Force, Michigan, Indiana, Cincinnati, Hofstra, and Arizona all have top 42 RPIs, and something tells me that one of them won't make the tourney. If a top 42 team gets left out this year, it doesn't have to be Creighton. Sure, there could be multiple top 42 teams getting left out, but even then, I just feel that Creighton has a good enough resume to avoid being one of them.

P.S. I know CU's RPI could change in the next week, but it has just as much chance to go up as it does to go down. Several of the teams directly ahead of them could easily drop below Creighton in the RPI if they don't win a few games in their conference tourneys. I'm feeling good about their chances because they are done playing. With the way the bubble is this year, most bubble teams will make the tourney (take a look at my most recent Jamarotology). This means that for a lot of teams, a win and they simply solidify the bid that I already have them getting. A loss, and they may give it up. On the other hand, there aren't many teams with realistic chances at winning games and bumping someone like Creighton out.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

San Diego St. gets in if they make their championship game. The committee always gives special treatment to regular season champs. I also think Seton Hall is in. Both Syracuse and Cincy get in if Syracuse wins today. Creighton is the odd team out. They need a lot of help this week to get in.

San Diego State is 64 in the RPI, and even making it to their championship game before losing won't be raising that number. If anything, their RPI would get worse, as at best, they would have beat RPI numbers 143 and 96 before losing to #55. The fact that they are the 1 seed hurts, because they need some more quality wins. They are 4-3 vs the top 100, and have 5 losses to teams outside the top 100. They are only 10-8 vs the top 165!!! After their best case scenario conference tournament (other than winning it all), they would be 5-3 vs the top 100 (only 1 top 50 win) and 12-9 vs the top 165. That isn't even close to bubble territory. They will not be seeing a bid if they lose another game.

[martymoose]

And everyone said I was crazy about a month ago when I speculated on 6 teams!!!!!!

[MSNSaluki]

i hope you are right, jamar.

[okstarsfan]

San Diego State is 64 in the RPI, and even making it to their championship game before losing won't be raising that number. If anything, their RPI would get worse, as at best, they would have beat RPI numbers 143 and 96 before losing to #55. The fact that they are the 1 seed hurts, because they need some more quality wins. They are 4-3 vs the top 100, and have 5 losses to teams outside the top 100. They are only 10-8 vs the top 165!!! After their best case scenario conference tournament (other than winning it all), they would be 5-3 vs the top 100 (only 1 top 50 win) and 12-9 vs the top 165. That isn't even close to bubble territory. They will not be seeing a bid if they lose another game.

Since the MWC has to send the winner, might as well cheer for SDSU (or AFA) and hope the other "candidates" lose very early.

[ceaser150]

San Diego State is 64 in the RPI, and even making it to their championship game before losing won't be raising that number. If anything, their RPI would get worse, as at best, they would have beat RPI numbers 143 and 96 before losing to #55. The fact that they are the 1 seed hurts, because they need some more quality wins. They are 4-3 vs the top 100, and have 5 losses to teams outside the top 100. They are only 10-8 vs the top 165!!! After their best case scenario conference tournament (other than winning it all), they would be 5-3 vs the top 100 (only 1 top 50 win) and 12-9 vs the top 165. That isn't even close to bubble territory. They will not be seeing a bid if they lose another game.

In 2004 Air Force was put in with a RPI of 70 after losing in the first round of the MWC tournament. Very similar circumstances. I think you make some good points, but mark my words: If SDSU and Air Force both make the championship game, both are in.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

In 2004 Air Force was put in with a RPI of 70 after losing in the first round of the MWC tournament. Very similar circumstances. I think you make some good points, but mark my words: If SDSU and Air Force both make the championship game, both are in.

Ceaser150,

Good job doing some research. Few people respond with numbers like that. Most just tell me I'm wrong and explain their gut feeling. You found a very good case for comparison in the 2004 Air Force team. However, I think comparing the two teams helps to prove my point, as that team was much more deserving.

2003-2004 Air Force:
RPI: 70
vs. top 50: 3-1
vs. top 100: 5-4
vs. top 165: 14-5
2 Losses outside top 100 (#132, #212)

2005-2006 San Diego State: (assuming they win out until conf. champ. game)
RPI: mid-60s
vs. top 50: 1-2
vs. top 100: 5-3
vs. top 165: 12-9
5 Losses outside top 100 (#105, #135, #141, #152 (home), #163 (home))

This comparison shows that this year's San Diego State team is much worse than the Air Force team from 2 years ago. The Air Force team barely made the tourney, which is why San Diego State won't make it as an atlarge team this year.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

George Washington lost. The A-10 will steal a bid.

Syracuse beat UConn. They will steal a bid.

Creighton's hopes just dropped a ton. I'd drop them to 25%.

[TrueBlueJay]

I had us at 10% before today.

I have us at zero today.

If i was a fan of MSU or UNI or Bradley - I'd be worried because it is VERY early in championship week.

[topher79]

I concur. Creighton's chances are nil at this point and can only get worse if that's possible. Bradley and Missouri St. will be fighting for the fourth and final MVC spot.

[cpacmel]

Creighton's hopes just dropped a ton. I'd drop them to 25%.

2 days ago they you had them at 95%.......:eek:

[Nyghtewynd]

I concur. Creighton's chances are nil at this point and can only get worse if that's possible. Bradley and Missouri St. will be fighting for the fourth and final MVC spot.

I hope so. I like MSU's chances in that battle.

Again, I'd be more worried if I were Hofstra, George Mason, Cincy, and the like right now than MSU should be. Operative word "should".

[topher79]

To the Valley's benefit I don't think their chances for maximum bids were hurt as much as the CAA's were today. They'll will be very fortunate to get an at large now and have zero chance at 3.

That said...I still think Bradley and Missouri St. are above Cinci, Hofstra, GM, Florida St. (currently ahead 40-32...a loss to Wake could eliminate them), and A&M.

Also a Cal loss to USC would help. Hopefully Cal doesn't know Victoria.

[Nyghtewynd]

Also a Cal loss to USC would help. Hopefully Cal doesn't know Victoria.

:D :D :D

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Michigan just lost to Minnesota. Michigan finished the season 2-7, and their RPI may drop enough for Creighton to pass them. I believe Creighton is now ahead of Michigan, so that is a very good thing.

I will bump CU's chances up a bit to 35%. I still think the other 5 are fine.

(The huge jump from 95% to 25% was due to the big time surprises of GW losing and Syracuse beating UConn. That's 2 bids that went bye-bye this morning)

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Florida State just lost by 12 to Wake Forest. CU's chances are up to 50% now!!!

[shockersup]

I disagree. CU is still in the 25% range IMO. Michigan and FSU are now gone but your 95% was way over the top in the first place. They will not allow 6 MVC teams in barring all bubble teams lose from now on. They just won't do it even though they should. I think we were looking at 4 after the Cuse and GW surprises but now we are back to 5. We need Colorado and A&M to lose befor I'll say CU is above 50%

sup

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Assuming teams like Arizona, Arkansas, Bradley, Hofstra, Indiana, Kentucky, and UNI are all in...

Here are the 16 remaining true bubble teams:

Syracuse
George Mason
Creighton
UAB
Alabama
Texas A&M
Air Force
California
Michigan
Cincinnati
Seton Hall
Colorado
Utah State
Maryland
Florida State
San Diego State

If there are no more upsets in conference tourneys, then 8 of these 16 will get a bid. It is hard to find 8 teams from this list that are ahead of Creighton at the moment. The danger comes from teams like Texas A&M, California, Colorado, and Utah State. These teams could easily win a few games and jump Creighton in the next few days. That is why I say CU's odds are 50-50.

Please, everyone rank these 16 teams in the order you think they are in right now, or the order you think they will finish, however you want. I'll give you a hint. They are listed in the order I think they are in right now.

[getreal4]

Reality time is approaching

Valley influence is minimal compared to BCS influence. 4 Bids are the max we are allowed. Money and power rule the close situations and olnly WSU has those attributes in the Valley :D

[Jay Supremacy]

Reality time is approaching

Valley influence is minimal compared to BCS influence. 4 Bids are the max we are allowed. Money and power rule the close situations and olnly WSU has those attributes in the Valley :D

Maybe it does with the media, but not with the committee. It's not like the committee is overflowing with a Major Conference presence. There are 10 members on the committee adn five of those come from the following places: The WAC, Princeton, George Mason, the Horizon League and the SWAC. Plus, there's the borderline major presence of the Utah AD. I would hardly call any of those representatives from the power conference.

[getreal4]

who's the leaders in the committee???? not our reps

[Jay Supremacy]

I'm one of those who doesn't understand why people don't have any faith in the committee. The reason to not have faith in the committee isn't because they are all ga-ga eyed for the big conferences, it's because there has never been a season like this. For every team that is playing itself into the tourney, two are playting themselves out. The Bubble is a mess, but the three or four Valley teams on the bubble all have reason for hope right now.

[skinny_uncle]

As Littlepage of the committee pointed out the committee compares teams, not conferences. I think Creighton still has a resume that could get them into the Dance. I will not be surprised to see 6 Valley teams make it.

[ceaser150]

I'm one of those who doesn't understand why people don't have any faith in the committee. The reason to not have faith in the committee isn't because they are all ga-ga eyed for the big conferences, it's because there has never been a season like this. For every team that is playing itself into the tourney, two are playting themselves out. The Bubble is a mess, but the three or four Valley teams on the bubble all have reason for hope right now.

Last year the last 2 teams in were UNI and UAB, and Notre Dame, DePaul and Maryland were left out. The ESPN analyst are the only ones "ga-ga" over the BCS teams.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Through games of Thursday, March 9


Automatic Bids:
Atlantic Sun – Belmont
Big Sky - Montana
Big South – Winthrop
Colonial – NC Wilmington
Horizon – Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Ivy League – Penn
MAAC – Iona
Mid-Continent – Oral Roberts
MVC – Southern Illinois
Northeast - Monmouth
OVC – Murray State
Southern – Davidson
Sunbelt – South Alabama
WCC – Gonzaga

A-10 – Unknown, but it will be an “undeserving team”


1 Bid Leagues Still To Finish (7):
America East, Big West, MAC, MEAC, Mountain West, Southland, SWAC

Top Seeds (16):
1) Connecticut, Duke, Memphis, Villanova
2) Illinois, LSU, Ohio State, Texas
3) Gonzaga, Iowa, North Carolina, Tennessee
4) Kansas, Pittsburgh, UCLA, Washington

Other Locks (23):
Arizona, Arkansas, Boston College, Bradley, Bucknell, Florida, George Mason, Georgetown, George Washington, Hofstra, Indiana, Kentucky, Marquette, Michigan State, Missouri State, Nevada, NC State, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma, Syracuse, West Virginia, Wichita State, Wisconsin

Last 5 In (in order):
Creighton
UAB
Alabama
Texas A&M
California

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - cut line - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Last 6 Out (In Order):
Michigan
Cincinnati
Seton Hall
Colorado
Utah State
Maryland

While I’m at it, I might as well mention a few teams that are getting some publicity. Despite what you might hear from the media, I say that the following teams have absolutely no chance of getting an atlarge bid, regardless of how things play out.

Florida State
Air Force
San Diego State
BYU
Western Kentucky

I feel that there are a total of 49 teams in the running for atlarge bids should they not win their conference tourneys. Right now, 43 of those 49 would be in. This is because there are currently 22 spots either already claimed, or soon to be claimed by “undeserving” teams from one-bid leagues.

If the season ended today, there would be 19 one-bid leagues no matter who won the remaining conference tourneys. If there were no upsets in other conference tourneys, the Patriot League (Bucknell) and the WAC (Nevada) would also become 1-bid leagues. Using these assumptions, here is a breakdown of bids per conference. Remember, upsets in conference tourneys will take spots away from teams on the bubble.

Conference Breakdown right now:
Big East – 7
MVC – 6
Big Ten – 6
SEC – 6
ACC – 4
Big 12 – 4
Pac 10 – 4
CAA – 3
A-10 - 2
C-USA – 2
1 Bid Conf – 21

Creighton is trying to hold on to their spot in the last teams in category. Many of the teams below them will pass them if they get wins today (or today and tomorrow). The good news is that I have Creighton ahead of Michigan, Cincinnati, and Seton Hall, and all 3 of those teams are done playing and can't gain any more ground. I'll keep Creighton's chances of being the Valley's 6th team at 50% for now. I give more updates as games finish throughout the day.

[topher79]

Creighton will not get in no way no chance. Your "bubble" should include Missouri St. as well as Bradley. Only one of whom will actually punch a ticket.

"60% of the time...it works every time."

[ceaser150]

Creighton will not get in no way no chance. Your "bubble" should include Missouri St. as well as Bradley. Only one of whom will actually punch a ticket.

"60% of the time...it works every time."

If MSU doesn't get in with an RPI of 19, it would completely discredit the RPI. No way they get left out.

Also, I think Cincinnati and SDSU will get at-large bids ahead of Creighton.

Anyone think that NC St. would be in trouble with a loss to Wake Forest today? Their RPI sits at 41, right behind Creighton. I just wonder if I should waste my breath rooting against them this afternoon.

[shockersup]

It's rarely a waste of breath to root against an ACC school. ;)

sup

[underdawg2]

It's rarely a waste of breath to root against an ACC school. ;)

sup

Amen Brother
:cool:

[MikeKennedyRulz]

Anyone think that NC St. would be in trouble with a loss to Wake Forest today? Their RPI sits at 41, right behind Creighton. I just wonder if I should waste my breath rooting against them this afternoon.

Nah, they are in. They are from the ACC, which won the National Championship last year, ACC teams have been to the final four recently, Maryland has won a NC recently, so they will get the benefit of the doubt based on their conferences history. :) ;)

Also, with regards to Topher saying no MSU, you have to consider that he is a BCS homer and that is his perspective. MSU, and any other valley team for that matter, would finish 13th in the big 12 according to him.

[topher79]

Also, with regards to Topher saying no MSU, you have to consider that he is a BCS homer and that is his perspective. MSU, and any other valley team for that matter, would finish 13th in the big 12 according to him.

I'd expect a fellow shockerfan to be a little smarter than that. Look...the BCS conferences (with the exception of the Pac10 and maaaaybe the Big 12) are heads and shoulders above the MVC and should get bids accordingly. I root for the MVC and have all my life but you are living in a freaking dream world. You're saying the MVC is equal to those other big name conferences. Really??? Match them up seed for seed with the Big East or Big Ten and see how that turns out.

We are the best mid-major conference ever but we can never be a major and shouldn't be compared to them in that fashion. And if you read any of my post you igmo you would see what I said about where MVC teams would finish in the majors.

I know it's hard to always have someone else around so they can read for your unfortunate *** but it's imperative you get all the info before you go labeling other people as BCS homers when I am anything but.

It's not too late to jump ship and move to Omaha...I guarantee no one would miss you.

[topher79]

If MSU doesn't get in with an RPI of 19, it would completely discredit the RPI. No way they get left out.

For the last time...the RPI is already discredited. Why do you think the committee prefaced so early in the season when the MVC was making noise that the RPI is overstated in its importance in selection?

The RPI is about as useful from a statistical standpoint as the BCS standings are in football.

[MikeKennedyRulz]

I'd expect a fellow shockerfan to be a little smarter than that. Look...the BCS conferences (with the exception of the Pac10 and maaaaybe the Big 12) are heads and shoulders above the MVC and should get bids accordingly. I root for the MVC and have all my life but you are living in a freaking dream world. You're saying the MVC is equal to those other big name conferences. Really??? Match them up seed for seed with the Big East or Big Ten and see how that turns out.

We are the best mid-major conference ever but we can never be a major and shouldn't be compared to them in that fashion. And if you read any of my post you igmo you would see what I said about where MVC teams would finish in the majors.

I know it's hard to always have someone else around so they can read for your unfortunate *** but it's imperative you get all the info before you go labeling other people as BCS homers when I am anything but.

It's not too late to jump ship and move to Omaha...I guarantee no one would miss you.

Thanks for proving my point. I appreciate it, you just saved me alot of typing.

[ceaser150]

Nah, they are in. They are from the ACC, which won the National Championship last year, ACC teams have been to the final four recently, Maryland has won a NC recently, so they will get the benefit of the doubt based on their conferences history. :) ;)

Also, with regards to Topher saying no MSU, you have to consider that he is a BCS homer and that is his perspective. MSU, and any other valley team for that matter, would finish 13th in the big 12 according to him.

NC St is losing by 17 to Wake Forest (RPI 97). Are we sure a blowout loss wouldn't put their tournament hopes in danger?

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I was sure that NC State was a lock, even if they lost today. However, they are now down 46-25 to Wake Forest. This will be their 4th loss in a row to finish the year. If NC State loses this one by 15+, they will atleast be on the bubble come Sunday.

Amazing!!

[okstarsfan]

Anyone think that NC St. would be in trouble with a loss to Wake Forest today? Their RPI sits at 41, right behind Creighton. I just wonder if I should waste my breath rooting against them this afternoon.

Couldn't hurt, as long as WF doesn't win the ACC tourney.

NC State has some reasonable wins, and they're over .500 in ACC, so they're likely in. But a bad loss to WF (and they're on pace to get one) and a mediocre RPI might put them back on the bubble.

[skinny_uncle]

Creighton will not get in no way no chance. Your "bubble" should include Missouri St. as well as Bradley. Only one of whom will actually punch a ticket.

"60% of the time...it works every time."
Who let Digger on here?
:D

[skinny_uncle]

Through games of Thursday, March 9


Automatic Bids:
Atlantic Sun – Belmont
Big Sky - Montana
Big South – Winthrop
Colonial – NC Wilmington
Horizon – Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Ivy League – Penn
MAAC – Iona
Mid-Continent – Oral Roberts
MVC – Southern Illinois
Northeast - Monmouth
OVC – Murray State
Southern – Davidson
Sunbelt – South Alabama
WCC – Gonzaga

A-10 – Unknown, but it will be an “undeserving team”


1 Bid Leagues Still To Finish (7):
America East, Big West, MAC, MEAC, Mountain West, Southland, SWAC

Top Seeds (16):
1) Connecticut, Duke, Memphis, Villanova
2) Illinois, LSU, Ohio State, Texas
3) Gonzaga, Iowa, North Carolina, Tennessee
4) Kansas, Pittsburgh, UCLA, Washington

Other Locks (23):
Arizona, Arkansas, Boston College, Bradley, Bucknell, Florida, George Mason, Georgetown, George Washington, Hofstra, Indiana, Kentucky, Marquette, Michigan State, Missouri State, Nevada, NC State, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma, Syracuse, West Virginia, Wichita State, Wisconsin

Last 5 In (in order):
Creighton
UAB
Alabama
Texas A&M
California

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - cut line - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Last 6 Out (In Order):
Michigan
Cincinnati
Seton Hall
Colorado
Utah State
Maryland

While I’m at it, I might as well mention a few teams that are getting some publicity. Despite what you might hear from the media, I say that the following teams have absolutely no chance of getting an atlarge bid, regardless of how things play out.

Florida State
Air Force
San Diego State
BYU
Western Kentucky

I feel that there are a total of 49 teams in the running for atlarge bids should they not win their conference tourneys. Right now, 43 of those 49 would be in. This is because there are currently 22 spots either already claimed, or soon to be claimed by “undeserving” teams from one-bid leagues.

If the season ended today, there would be 19 one-bid leagues no matter who won the remaining conference tourneys. If there were no upsets in other conference tourneys, the Patriot League (Bucknell) and the WAC (Nevada) would also become 1-bid leagues. Using these assumptions, here is a breakdown of bids per conference. Remember, upsets in conference tourneys will take spots away from teams on the bubble.

Conference Breakdown right now:
Big East – 7
MVC – 6
Big Ten – 6
SEC – 6
ACC – 4
Big 12 – 4
Pac 10 – 4
CAA – 3
A-10 - 2
C-USA – 2
1 Bid Conf – 21

Creighton is trying to hold on to their spot in the last teams in category. Many of the teams below them will pass them if they get wins today (or today and tomorrow). The good news is that I have Creighton ahead of Michigan, Cincinnati, and Seton Hall, and all 3 of those teams are done playing and can't gain any more ground. I'll keep Creighton's chances of being the Valley's 6th team at 50% for now. I give more updates as games finish throughout the day.
As the Dance gets closer, your analysis gets better Jamar. Although I questioned you earlier in the season, it seems you now have things pretty much right in my mind. I'm glad I'm not the only guy still seeing 6 bids for the Valley.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Wow, the more and more I look at it, the harder it is for me to sort things out. Let me try just posting an overview and see if I can work my way into more details from there.

Here is my broadest of bubbles. If a team isn't listed here, they are either undisputably in or out. With Bucknell winning today, there are fewer and fewer chances for us to see surprises in tournaments. If there are no more surprises (such as the A-10) from here on out, then 6 of the teams on this list will get bids and the other 9 won't.

These 9 look like the most likely to get the 6 spots:
Hofstra
George Mason
Creighton
UAB
California
Michigan
Alabama
Cincinnati
Seton Hall

These teams are still alive, but need 1 more win to even have a chance. I say their chances are remote:
Utah State
Maryland

IMO, these teams are done, but I will list them because this is my broadest of bubbles:
Colorado
Florida State
Air Force
San Diego State

I really think all 6 bids will come from the top 9. Picking which 6 is really, really getting hard.

Hofstra - RPI of 30, 3-2 vs top 50, 4-3 vs 51-100. Only 1 loss outside top 100. Finished the season well, beating George Mason twice in the last couple of weeks. Cons include a Pomeroy rating of 58 and a brutal non-conf SOS of 285. 3 wins vs. potential NCAA teams, but 2 are against George Mason, who is on the bubble.

George Mason - RPI of 27, 2-4 vs top 50, 6-2 vs 51-100. Only 1 loss outside top 100. Looked like a lock until recent developments. Will the suspension of Tony Skinn affect the committee's decision? Also, if it comes down to choosing between them and Hofstra, does the fact that they lost to Hofstra twice in recent weeks mean Hofstra would get the bid?

Creighton - RPI of 40, 6-6 vs top 50, 1-1 vs 51-100. 2 losses outside top 100, but both were in December when adjustments were being made due to the Funk injury. Didn't finish the season well (going 2-4), but those games were without Dotzler, who could be back for the NCAAs. Last loss to a non-NCAA team was way back in December.

UAB - RPI of 43, 1-1 vs top 50, 4-4 vs 51-100. 0 losses outside the top 100, although only played 14 games total against the top 200. 13 games against teams 200+. Finished very strong, including a win over Memphis. Still playing in the CUSA tourney. Tonight vs. UTEP, and then tomorrow vs Memphis if they win tonight. Would the decent win over UTEP tonight along with a competitive game vs. Memphis tomorrow be enough?

California - RPI of 57, 3-4 vs top 50, 4-2 vs 51-100. 3 losses outside the top 100. Mediocre finish. Playing #140 Oregon tonight in the PAC 10 tourney semifinals. (Oregon beat Washington last night) A loss tonight and they should be done, but does a win and a PAC 10 finals appearance get them in?

Michigan - RPI of 46, 3-8 vs top 50, 7-1 vs 51-100. 1 loss outside the top 100. Probably has the best overall resume of any bubble team with 3 top 25 wins and 10 top 100 wins, but finished winning only 2 of their last 9 games including losses at #170 Purdue and to #78 Minnesota in the Big 10 tourney. This will test the committee to see how much the last 10 games really matter. Do they give Michigan a bid and penalize them with a poor seed, or does Michigan miss out altogether?

Alabama - RPI of 47 (before today's loss is even factored in), 5-6 vs top 50, 4-3 vs 51-100. 3 losses outside the top 100. Up and down finish. In last 7 games, beat Florida and Tennessee at home, but lost to #111 Mississippi State and #77 South Carolina. Terrible road/neutral team at 3-8, but did have a bunch of big home wins. Their road win at Kentucky was their only road win over a top 100 team all year out of 6 chances. Does the committee believe their home wins can translate into NCAA neutral court wins?

Cincinnati - RPI of 39, 4-8 vs top 50, 7-3 vs 51-100. 1 loss outside the top 100. Played the second half of the season without one of their best players, and only went 6-10. Does the committee believe they are still an NCAA team? Plenty of big wins, but most were early in the year.

Seton Hall - RPI of 56, 5-4 vs top 50, 3-5 vs 51-100. 2 losses outside the top 100. The most up and down team in America. Plenty of great wins. Plenty of poor losses. Only won 3 of their last 8, including 4 losses to teams outside the top 75.

I'm tired of doing these descriptions, and I don't feel the rest of the teams have nearly the same chances as the above teams, so I'm going to just give short blurbs for the rest.

Utah State - With an RPI of 55 and only 1 top 50 win, they must win tonight and then play a solid game against Nevada tomorrow to have any chance.

Maryland - 2-7 vs the top 50, and 5-4 vs 51-100 doesn't make up for it. They absolutely must beat Wake Forest tonight to have a chance, and probably need to beat Duke tomorrow also.

Colorado - Loss vs Texas A&M today by 33 means they are done.
Florida State - 1 win vs Duke does not equal an NCAA bid
Air Force - Loss last night to a bad Wyoming team. They are done.
San Diego State - Without Air Force in the tourney anymore, another loss would be their demise.

[gnfnr47]

Guys come on, The valley is not gonna get 6 bids, it's just not, and I love the valley, im an alum of SIU, and always wish for the valley to do well, that said there is a bit of realism here to consider. 6 bids, think about that for a minute.
You are asking for the selection comittee to double our highest ever total of 3. Yah i know...they look at individual teams...not conferences........if you believe that, then you still think elvis is alive too. Jamar if you want to project an accurate bracketology, take off the tinted glasses and bring some realism into all of this. On the other hand if your goal is to hype the valley and get fans excited, then by all means continue to do what you do, its great. But if you are trying to be realistic take a step back and think for a minute. You have to think like the comittee, and not just look at numbers and RPI, because I guaruntee you they look at more than just numbers whether thats fair or not. My motto has been this....Lobby for 5, be happy with 4, and be patient for 6 a few years from now. I'm not trying to put our great conf. down, I'm just trying to be realisitc and have some knowledge come selection sunday so we aren't just completely dissapointed when we only get 4-5 bids, and god forbid only 3.

[MSNSaluki]

jamar, i think you need to get laid!:) :) :) :) :)

seriously, thanks for all the hard work. it's a big help in trying to sort out this bubble mess.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

gnfnr47,

who said I would be completely dissapointed with 4 or 5? I've said all along that even with my predictions of 6, the 6th spot was questionable. Right now, I say 5 teams are in. Creighton is #6, and I honestly believe they still have a realistic shot. Maybe I'm overstating it at 50%, but it isn't that far off. Yes, I honestly believe this is what the committee is thinking.

Why did the committee give the Valley 3 bids last year. That tied the Valley record in a year when the conference was good, but not amazing. They had every right to leave UNI out, but they didn't. They chose the best teams.

[CUJay]

Jamar -

Do you have a final prediction (barring an upset today by S. Carolina)?

[underdawg2]

The RPI is about as useful from a statistical standpoint as the BCS standings are in football.[/QUOTE]

Sorry troll, All BCS power conference teams would be sucking on their RPI bigtime if it were high as MSU's, believe me. Who says the official RPI put out by the NCAA is discredited??? Not the NCAA--only BCS cool-aid drinkers like you who are looking at anything to discredit a team like the Bears who are mearly playing by the rules as laid out by the Committee. MVC may only get 3-4 like you say but at least they play fair and square--quit trying to write new rules of the selection game to fit your prejudices
:yes: :valley:

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

6 Bids!!!!

Final Update: Selection Sunday at 3:25 PM

Automatic Bids:
A-10 – Xavier
ACC - Duke
America East - Albany
Atlantic Sun – Belmont
Big 10 - Ohio State/Iowa
Big 12 - Kansas/Texas
Big East - Syracuse
Big Sky - Montana
Big South – Winthrop
Big West - Pacific
Colonial – NC Wilmington
C-USA - Memphis
Horizon – Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Ivy League – Penn
MAAC – Iona
MAC - Kent State
MEAC - Hampton
Mid-Continent – Oral Roberts
Mountain West - San Diego State
MVC – Southern Illinois
Northeast - Monmouth
OVC – Murray State
Pac 10 - UCLA
Patriot - Bucknell
SEC - Florida
Southern – Davidson
Southland - Northwestern State
Sunbelt – South Alabama
SWAC - Southern
WAC - Nevada
WCC – Gonzaga

34 Atlarge Bids Available:

Locks (29):
Arizona, Arkansas, Boston College, Bradley, Connecticut, Georgetown, George Washington, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa/Ohio State, Kansas/Texas, Kentucky, LSU, Marquette, Michigan State, Missouri State, NC State, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Texas A&M, UAB, Villanova, Washington, West Virginia, Wichita State, Wisconsin

Last 5 In (in order):
George Mason
Creighton
Hofstra
California
Cincinnati

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - cut line - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Last 5 Out (In Order):
Michigan
Alabama
Seton Hall
Utah State
Florida State

While I’m at it, I might as well mention a few teams that are getting some publicity. Despite what you might hear from the media, I say that the following teams have absolutely no chance of getting an atlarge bid, regardless of how things play out.

Air Force
Maryland
Colorado
BYU
Western Kentucky

Conference Breakdown right now:
Big East – 8
Big Ten – 6
MVC – 6
SEC – 5
ACC – 4
Big 12 – 4
Pac 10 – 4
CAA – 3
A-10 - 2
C-USA – 2
1 Bid Conf – 21

Seeding:
1) Connecticut, Duke, Memphis, Villanova
2) Gonzaga, Illinois, Ohio State, Texas
3) Iowa, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, UCLA
4) Boston College, Florida, Kansas, Tennessee
5) LSU, Michigan State, George Washington, West Virginia
6) Georgetown, Nevada, Syracuse, Washington
7) Indiana, Marquette, Oklahoma, Wichita State
8) Kentucky, NC State, Southern Illinois, Wisconsin
9) Arkansas, Bradley, Northern Iowa, UAB
10) Arizona, Bucknell, Missouri State, Texas A&M
11) California, Cincinnati, Creighton, NC Wilmington
12) George Mason, Hofstra, Kent State, San Diego State
13) Iona, Montana, Wisconsin Milwaukee, Xavier
14) Murray State, South Alabama, Winthrop, Northwestern State
15) Belmont, Davidson, Penn, Pacific
16) Albany, Hampton, Monmouth, Oral Roberts, Southern

Play In Game: Hampton vs. Southern


NOTES:

I had to list Utah State and Florida State, but I don't think either will make it. Honestly, it is basically a crapshoot picking 5 of the other 8 bubble teams. Here's hoping that CU is one of the 5.

[DawgFan]

I think Alabama will be in and Creighton out. I think Florida State or Michigan would get the call if the committee goes BCS on us and drops Hofstra and Mo State. But, there is no reason this year to go BCS. They didn't do a thing in their neutral site league tourney's, bids were not stolen and the MVC and Colonial will be dancing in the streets.

[DawgFan]

P.S. The NCAA would never have the two black leagues playing each other on Tuesday night for a variety of reasons bigger than basketball. Look for Hampton vs Monmouth or Belmont.

[skinny_uncle]

Jamar,
We seem to be on the same wavelength.
Here is my field of 65 I posted earlier today.

My field of 65 as of now:
Duke
Villanova
Memphis
UConn
Ohio St.
Tenn.
Texas
UCLA
Gonzaga
Iowa
Pitt
N. Carolina
LSU
Illinois
Oklahoma
Florida
Syracuse
Mich. St.
Nevada
MO State
Boston College
Wisconsin
Arizona
UNI
Kansas
George Mason
UNC Wilmington
Wichita State
SIU
Hofstra
Marquette
UAB
Indiana
West Va.
Bradley
Washington
Georgetown
Creighton
Cinncinnati
Kentucky
Bucknell
Texas A&M
St. Joe's
Arkansas
Michigan
Bucknell
Kent State
UWMilwaukee
San Diego State
Montana
Iona
Murray
South Alabama
Northwestern State
Winthrop
Xavier
Pacific
Davidson
Penn
Belmont
Albany
Oral Roberts
Southern
Monmouth
Hampton

Our lists look very similar, especially the 6 bid part.

[MSU Bleeds Maroon]

P.S. The NCAA would never have the two black leagues playing each other on Tuesday night for a variety of reasons bigger than basketball. Look for Hampton vs Monmouth or Belmont.

The committee hasn't always paid attention to non-basketball details. Remember a couple years ago when they put BYU into a Friday/Sunday bracket? The Cougars would have had to switch from one region to another if they had won.

Linky (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/ncaatourney03/story?id=1524804)

[skinny_uncle]

I see Hampton vs. Monmouth as the playin game. Southern won 9 of their last 10 which is better than either of the other choices(Monmouth was 7-3 and Hampton 5-5).

[shocker3]

Jamar- Last year you were every bit as sucessful as Joe Lunardi.

I hope you beat him this year!!!!:valley: :bears: :jays: :braves: :panthers: :salukis: :shockers: :valley:

[skinny_uncle]

I see Hampton vs. Monmouth as the playin game. Southern won 9 of their last 10 which is better than either of the other choices(Monmouth was 7-3 and Hampton 5-5).
At least I got this one right.

[skinny_uncle]

Jamar,
We seem to be on the same wavelength.
Here is my field of 65 I posted earlier today.

My field of 65 as of now:
Duke
Villanova
Memphis
UConn
Ohio St.
Tenn.
Texas
UCLA
Gonzaga
Iowa
Pitt
N. Carolina
LSU
Illinois
Oklahoma
Florida
Syracuse
Mich. St.
Nevada
MO State
Boston College
Wisconsin
Arizona
UNI
Kansas
George Mason
UNC Wilmington
Wichita State
SIU
Hofstra
Marquette
UAB
Indiana
West Va.
Bradley
Washington
Georgetown
Creighton
Cinncinnati
Kentucky
Bucknell
Texas A&M
St. Joe's
Arkansas
Michigan
Bucknell
Kent State
UWMilwaukee
San Diego State
Montana
Iona
Murray
South Alabama
Northwestern State
Winthrop
Xavier
Pacific
Davidson
Penn
Belmont
Albany
Oral Roberts
Southern
Monmouth
Hampton

Our lists look very similar, especially the 6 bid part.

Maybe I was drinking too much Valley kool-aid. I still got 59 of 65 right if I counted right. I also still think MSU and Creighton deserve to be in over Utah State and Aif Force.
The best thing the Jays and bears can do now is go win games in the NIT and show the committee they were wrong. Best of luck to both of you.

[MSNSaluki]

we can do two things ...

we can pout and ***** and moan OR we can go out and win some basketball games to back up our claims.

[skinny_uncle]

Leaving out George Washington was just an oversight on my part. Can't believe I missed them. Too many Georges this year.

[getreal4]

Jamar great work these past few weeks. Thanks! :valley:




btw, I told you so... :doh:

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

thanks getreal4. I'm definitely frustrated today, and it is nice to get a compliment. You were right about getting 4.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I know it is in another thread, but everyone needs to read the college hoops net article. I have a link to it in my signature. Here are some of my favorite parts:

The committee went to great lengths to make sure the Missouri Valley couldn’t be considered above any of them in any way. [B]I’d honestly come to believe that the committee did its job honestly, with little bias. I’d also fallen for the line that conferences don’t get bids, teams do. Feeling rather duped at this time, apparently the past few years were just a façade.



Somewhere we must have missed the announcement or amendment to policy that the criteria for getting into the NCAAs would be changed this year. That’s exactly what the committee did this year, and it’s an embarrassment to the selection process and to college basketball as a whole. The committee flat-out changed the rules in the middle of the game, and is doing it with a straight face when its members should be wearing bags over their heads. It put up the target, then moved it just as schools took a shot at it, and did it all without shame.

The rules are now that there aren’t any rules. Put quite simply, this committee should be embarrassed. After the fine job done the past few years by Bob Bowlsby, Jim Livengood and the members on those committees, this group has tarnished the legacy left by them by deciding to wander off on its own and make up its own rules. In doing so, it has severely damaged the integrity of the selection process.

But then the committee put together a bracket that looks like it was constructed by Digger Phelps and Billy Packer and made guys like them look like geniuses. Maybe that is the biggest insult that can be hurled at this committee; they have made a whole host of uniformed people look like experts.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I am so very frustrated today, and it goes beyond basketball. I still feel that the past 6 or 7 committees did excellent jobs. I had begun to believe that the NCAA selection committee was above the corrupt, partisan world we live in. It is unfortunate that we live in a society where deceitfulness and dishonesty are so prevalent. The biggest let down for me is that these qualities found their way into what I considered to be one of the few pure institutions remaining in sports. I feel like I was only living in a bubble to believe that the selection process could remain pure and wholesome. Having that bubble popped sucks.

I had so much antisipation of seeing losers like Digger Phelps and Billy Packer watch in disbelief as the "correct" brackets came out. It hurts to see that the reality of the situation is that similarly foolish people were able to infiltrate the committee.

[TheAsianSensation]

It seemed like the committee was way more concerned with keeping teams close to home to get revenue as possible. There's no question, that among others, Tennessee as a 2 and Bradley as a 13 were procedural bumps. I mean, Montana was a 12. 12!

It's clear they were focusing more on the money than fairness, the way they set up the brackets. I'm more mad with that than their selection of at-large teams, which, outside of MSU instead of AFA, I can live with.