4th Team Tourney Chances

[Myopicraiderfan]

I think everyone here assumes there will be no trouble in getting 3 into the tourney but I am wondering about WSU, Bradley and UNI as at large.

For all I think they need to win their Bracketbuster which I think is very doable for WSU and Bradley.

For WSU with games @Drake, MSU, and @Creighton they must win 2/3 and win 2 games in the Valley Tourney. 22-11

For Bradley with games at @UE, UNI, and Ind St. they must win 3/3 and win 2 games in the Valley tourney. 23-11

For UNI with games @Creighton, @Bradley, Ill St. they must win 3/3 and win 2 in the Valley Tourney. 22-11

The odds of getting 5 in are Very remote as 4 plays 5 in the Valley tourney and Bradley and UNI play each other. So unless #6 or lower wins the Valley tourney we are 3-4.

Just my thoughts. Wondered if others think that WSU, Bradley,or UNI with around .500 MVC records have a shot.

[WSUbballer]

The odds are WSU and Bradley will do battle in the 4-5 game on Friday. I'd consider this pretty much the ultimate at-large playoff.

[brocks]

The odds are WSU and Bradley will do battle in the 4-5 game on Friday. I'd consider this pretty much the ultimate at-large playoff.


That's exactly right. BU probably has the most favorable sked before St. Louis. And despite what many might think, I see the selection committee as human . . . Bradley, WSU, and the performance of the Valley in the last NCAA are very recent memories . . . I think that's a factor whether the powers that be admit it or not.

[DawgieStyle]

3 tops, SIU, CU, and Mo. state

especially considering the fact that some freak comes out and wins an auto bid that has no business winning an auto bid and stealing a bid from the at large pool. Think Butler not winning the Horizon. It happens a couple times every year and this year the bubble is already packed. This won't help, and to be honest, I'm not sure that anyone besides the 3 I've listed have earned a bid, in fact they haven't.

[genius4point0]

The only way we get 4 is if someone other than SIU, CU and MSU win the tourney. Those 3 would likely need to be in the semis though for it to happen. I could see a scenario where WSU gets an at-large at 10-8 and a loss in the champ game but it is unlikely considering how many teams are on the bubble right now that have better wins than WSU.

[Khan4Cats]

I agree that the top 3 should go. The Valley could get a fourth if one of the next three takes the tourney. A fifth would be an absolute stretch and would require the 6 seed to win the tourney over the winner of the 4/5 game. That would then assume that MSU (likely the 3 seed) doesn't get screwed by the committee for losing in the first round. If BU and WSU both run the table en route to the 4/5 game, they have an outside shot of that game being a "play-in" game for an at-large. But that is only likely with few 'upset' bids in smaller conferences.

A good showing Fri/Sat (8-2 at the worst) may solidify our RPI's and do serious damage to other 'bubble teams'.

[blueness]

It wouldn't surprise that if the semifinals consisted of

CU, SIU, MSU and one of the following (BU, UNI, WSU) that all four would get in, regardless of how things play out from then on (the exception being UNI would probably have to make a run to the champ game).

Think about last season, the four teams that made it in (whether it was a coincidence or not) were the four teams in the semifinals in STL.


Take care of business tomorrow night Jays!!

:jays: :jays: :jays:
:valley: :valley: :valley:

[genius4point0]

I think the major difference between this year and last is the seperation at the top. MSU is 10-5 and the next best is 8-7. 2 games make a pretty big difference. Last year I believe there were 2 or 3 teams tied for second and then another 1-2 a game back. It is hard to differentiate teams with a one game difference but teams with a 2 game difference isn't as hard. Also if MSU wins at WSU that would mean the 3rd place team was 5-1 against teams 4-6 and that would show huge seperation.

[Khan4Cats]

The more I look at it, a different wild thought jumps out at me. (Wild mainly because UNI would have to really turn things around for this to happen) but what if:

MSU struggles if Bilyeu's injury is too difficult to overcome and drops their last 3. Only truely surprise loss would be at home to Drake.

WSU drops DU and MSU, then loses at Creighton (or switch with Drake)

UNI runs the last three. Biggest surprise would be a win at Creighton.

Bradley beats the Indiana schools but loses to UNI.

In that scenario: All 4 teams would finish 10-8 in conference. Assuming they all win their BB games. What does that do for bubble talk?

[genius4point0]

Well your analysis of MSU isn't going to happen. There is an article in the paper that says it is only a sprain, that is what they are saying, and I think MSU beats Drake at home without Nate anyways.

If somehow your dream comes true, which it won't, UNI won't win out and MSU won't lose out, we could be looking at 2 teams and not 4.

[BEARNUT]

Everyone's wrong. 5 teams in the tournament. I'm not crazy, just thinking everything's going to go perfect for two more teams in the valley.

[DawgieStyle]

Everyone's wrong. 5 teams in the tournament. I'm not crazy, just thinking everything's going to go perfect for two more teams in the valley.

the valley kool aid is flowing freely at your place isn't it.......I'm a fan, but I draw the line at delusional.

[Khan4Cats]

Glad to hear its just a sprain.. I know its his off-hand too. But it could still affect his rebounding and defense, if he becomes self-conscious about it. I know a good taping will add stability, but still.

I did say that it was quite a stretch. And I agree the least likely occurrences in that scenario would be UNI winning at Creighton and MSU losing at home to Drake. But you never know, Drake may just decide to make shots against someone that doesn't have "Iowa" somewhere in their name, care to borrow our jerseys:lol:

[BEARNUT]

the valley kool aid is flowing freely at your place isn't it.......I'm a fan, but I draw the line at delusional.


I'm not de, delu, delus...whatever, I just think WSU and Bradley are still in the running.

[DawgieStyle]

I'm not de, delu, delus...whatever, I just think WSU and Bradley are still in the running.

There is a difference between 5 teams being on the bubble, and the amount of teams that actually get in. I agree 5 teams have a shot at a bid from the valley, but ultimately I believe only 3 of those teams will have resume's worthy of selection.

[genius4point0]

MSU played one of their worst games of the year against Drake and still won in OT. MSU didn't seem to show up until about 5 mins to go and then really showed up with 2:30 to play. This team knows how close it is and I don't think they will let it slip through their finger tips.

I don't think 5 is going to happen unless WSU gets to 10-8 and the champ game or 11-7 and the semis. Even if that happened it would only be 4. If MSU were to lose in the first round again, which is possible, because it will be against UNI I think MSU would likely get left out.

So either SIU or CU would have to lose in the first round to a play-in team and the play-in team would then have to win the whole thing and hope that MSU won its first game to get 5.

5 isn't happening even in a perfect storm.

[Mikovio]

Get back to me after BracketBusters weekend....

[WSUbballer]

It wouldn't surprise that if the semifinals consisted of

CU, SIU, MSU and one of the following (BU, UNI, WSU) that all four would get in, regardless of how things play out from then on (the exception being UNI would probably have to make a run to the champ game).

Think about last season, the four teams that made it in (whether it was a coincidence or not) were the four teams in the semifinals in STL.


Take care of business tomorrow night Jays!!

:jays: :jays: :jays:
:valley: :valley: :valley:

I agree. Going 0-1 in the postseason tournament just doesn't give committee members any warm feelings, especially when that tournament is not a "major".
Case and point: MSU and CU last year.

[tennis08tarheels]

You said that each team must win 2 games in St. Louis. Does winning 2 games put you in the final (excluding play-in teams)?

[genius4point0]

Yes 2 wins in STL would put you in the finals if you don't play on thursday.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

You said that each team must win 2 games in St. Louis. Does winning 2 games put you in the final (excluding play-in teams)?
yes

10 teams, so
bottom 4 play on Thursday to eliminate 2 teams
top 6 join the 2 winners, 8 play on Friday
4 play on Saturday
2 play on Sunday for the championship

[cufan]

The problem is CU is not so squarely in as people may believe. Projections having them in all rely on them winning the rest of their games. If they lose to UNI tomorrow night and WSU on senior night (both would be home losses), they go into the tourney having dropped 3 of their last 5. Even winning the first round gets them to only .500 over the last 6 games - and leaves them at just 20 wins. This might not be a problem if they hadn't dropped early season games to the likes of NU, Fresno State, Ind. St. and Hawaii. I still believe CU must run the table and make the semifinals to be assured of an at large. So any scenario that relies on other teams beating CU to make at-large status must consider the very real possibility that such a win also knocks CU out - pretty much the way the losses to WSU and then Bradley in the tourney were the difference between the NCAA and NIT last year.

[Hein72]

I think everyone here assumes there will be no trouble in getting 3 into the tourney but I am wondering about WSU, Bradley and UNI as at large.

For all I think they need to win their Bracketbuster which I think is very doable for WSU and Bradley.

For WSU with games @Drake, MSU, and @Creighton they must win 2/3 and win 2 games in the Valley Tourney. 22-11

For Bradley with games at @UE, UNI, and Ind St. they must win 3/3 and win 2 games in the Valley tourney. 23-11

For UNI with games @Creighton, @Bradley, Ill St. they must win 3/3 and win 2 in the Valley Tourney. 22-11

The odds of getting 5 in are Very remote as 4 plays 5 in the Valley tourney and Bradley and UNI play each other. So unless #6 or lower wins the Valley tourney we are 3-4.

Just my thoughts. Wondered if others think that WSU, Bradley,or UNI with around .500 MVC records have a shot.


I think that is some what realistic and I agree completely anything more then 4 will be a mirical. Even if one of those 3 things up their happen and they lose in the final to someone who wouldnt be in otherwise would be the only chance and I think that would bump someone out. WSU if they take care of business is the best chance at a 4th because that would be like 8-2 or something in the last 10.

[3ontheway]

Agree with cufan. At this point CU is far from a lock. CU has 2 tough home games (3 actually with Drexel) and at Ill. St. Assuming they win all 4 is not very smart. They will be favored in all 4, but could lose any or all of them if they don't play well.

If MSU beats SIU tomorrow, IMO they would be even with the Jays as far as at large possibilities even though they lost both games to CU. The Wisco win looks so much better to the committee than the 0-4 slate the Jays have with NE, UD, Hawaii, and Felony St.

[Nyghtewynd]

I can't remember...has the Valley ever had a play-in team win two games in the tournament?

[WSUbballer]

I can't remember...has the Valley ever had a play-in team win two games in the tournament?
I honestly don't think that's ever happened..
I think I heard last year that a No.1 seed has never lost in St. Louis in its opening game, so that takes care of half the possibilites. I dunno for sure about the No.2 seeds though..

[cufan]

Couple of close but no cigars, but I don't think the 1st or 2nd seed has ever lost the first game since the league went to the play-in games instead of leaving numbers 9 and 10 at home (which has only been about 10 years, maybe?). That is why CU must take care of business and maintain no worse than 2nd seed.

[OmahaBen]

Agree with cufan. At this point CU is far from a lock.

If the season ended today, though, they would be in and probably as a 7-9 seed.

Frankly, I think all CU needs is three more wins the rest of the way, and that's including at the Bluejay Invitational in St. Louis. Tough schedule or not, asking the team to go 3-2 or 3-3 down the stretch is hardly being overly optimistic.

[Mikovio]

I can't remember...has the Valley ever had a play-in team win two games in the tournament?

Only once. Bradley won two games as a 7-seed in 1998. They beat 2-seed Creighton to advance to the semifinals....