At large hopes( might be unpopular)

[barkeep1967]

1. WSU- lock dosen't matter what happens in STL
2. SIU-absolutley has to win 2. If final is against WSU they are in. vs CU or BU it is going to be dicey. Bad losses are a killer
3. CU- must win vs BU and then hope WSU is 2nd round foe. Loss to anybody other than WSU and it's clouded
4. MSU- should be in but I do not trust the committee or the rpi this year. sweep from WSU means they need 1 more win.
5.UNI- need 1 win in STL. swoon down the stretch is a killer.
6.BU- need 2 wins minimum. If one is vs WSU they are in. otherwise Sunday could be an elimination game. Also has bad losses

I listed these teams in no particular order.

The Valley need WSU to win it's first game. INSU/DU upsetting WSU would be a killer.

I know alot of kool aid is going down in here. Does anybody trust the committee though. I can see the RPI being tossed aside this year.

SIU and BU may both need the auto. I still see 4 and if things fall exactly right a slight chance at 5.

[Nyghtewynd]

I understand what you're saying, but don't you think it's weird when every single bracket prediction has at least 4 MVC teams in and you say that everyone except for two teams (WSU and MSU) have "work to do"? Look, for instance, if MSU loses in the first round and they don't get an at-large bid, it'll be a unique event. They'd be the best eligible team in the RPI to not get a bid by maybe 15 RPI places. If the committee goes psycho, they go psycho. It'd be a reflection on them and not on any of those teams. I gotta admit...my demented side would be a little happy if only two MVC teams got bids, because it'd demonstrate how desperate they were to keep MVC teams out, and most of the major media would probably find a hot story there.

[barkeep1967]

like I siad the is based on the fact I do not trust the RPI this year. they can just pass on it and tweek it to fix the problem next year. I do believe MSU is in but do MSU fans trust the committee? isn't MSU already the highest rpi team to ever be left out?

[Aargh]

Barkeep, you've been spending too much time on BCS boards. They have seduced you and you drank the "Jimmy Jones" Kool-Aid.

[DCShockerFan]

I'm always pessimistic (come on I grew up watching 90's Shocker basketball) but I wouldn't be at all surprised if we only get 3 bids. What worries me the most is stuff like what happened last night. A lot of BCS bubble teams got big wins over ranked teams. It's the opportunity for that to happen that gives the bigger conferences the advantage. The SEC, Big East, Big 10 etc bubble teams all have more chances to beat the top teams in the country. It's not that Valley teams couldn't beat those teams too, it's that they don't have the opportunity. I think over the next week and a half you're going to see more wins like a&M over texas just because there will be more opportunities for upsets. In the meantime, you have a number of Valley bubble teams that can only help themselves by beating other bubble teams. Keep in mind that every team but one is guaranteed to lose another game, and you see where things could go awry.

[BlueDude]

I'm always pessimistic (come on I grew up watching 90's Shocker basketball) but I wouldn't be at all surprised if we only get 3 bids. What worries me the most is stuff like what happened last night. A lot of BCS bubble teams got big wins over ranked teams. It's the opportunity for that to happen that gives the bigger conferences the advantage. The SEC, Big East, Big 10 etc bubble teams all have more chances to beat the top teams in the country. It's not that Valley teams couldn't beat those teams too, it's that they don't have the opportunity. I think over the next week and a half you're going to see more wins like a&M over texas just because there will be more opportunities for upsets. In the meantime, you have a number of Valley bubble teams that can only help themselves by beating other bubble teams. Keep in mind that every team but one is guaranteed to lose another game, and you see where things could go awry.

You can't take this negative energy into the tournament man!

[BradleyBrave]

Every day that goes by a trust the RPI less and less. BU's RPI has dropped 5 spots since Saturday's 20 point pasting of Drake. We went from 41 on the cusp of the top 40 to 46 this morning, and falling. I'm afraid the matra of "Win and we're in" for BU isn't true any longer.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Every day that goes by a trust the RPI less and less. BU's RPI has dropped 5 spots since Saturday's 20 point pasting of Drake. We went from 41 on the cusp of the top 40 to 46 this morning, and falling. I'm afraid the matra of "Win and we're in" for BU isn't true any longer.

BU has moved a lot because a few teams around them have moved. Don't forget, if you are 41, and #42 wins a big game, they will leap frog you and you will drop to 42. This isn't a reflection on you, it just is the way things work. This process can also work for you, such as if #40 has a bad loss and you move up a spot.

BU dropped because several teams moved up at the same time. Don't take this as a trend. They are just as likely to recover and move back up when some teams lose.

Regardless, Bradley is 1 win away from being a NCAA lock in my book.

[Myopicraiderfan]

I tend to think if the selection commitee is RPI based and a number of smaller schools get instead of "majors" we will see another modification of the RPI or BCS schools look closer at scheduling winable 75-150 rpi teams. I understand the pessimism.

[getreal4]

I want to cheer for the underdogs (especially Drake) in the conference tourney, but I think its a potential disaster for the multiple Valley at large bids if the Trees or the Bulldogs beat Wichita. And it could happen :o

[jelly_81]

Yeah the Valley needs some help to ensure that we get 4 bids in. Three should be a lock. But we need all the conference tournaments to play out right. No upsets. No Gonzaga throwing the WCC tourney like they did last year.

[stormpanther5012]

I personally like how they use RPI to talk about how the Valley is overrated and has inflated RPI, they then turnaround to talk about how Colorado and Seton Hall have top 50 RPI wins, you cant choose to like it for the big conferences and not for the mids.

The MVC found out how to use the system instead of being used by the system. The NCAA created the RPI to have an objective way to view similar teams and thus far it is the best way to do that, and from what is written by the NCAA it is not the end all be all of NCAA bid theory, but it is a valuable tool they use in determining teams and bids.

I think the Valley gets 4 bids, if not 5.

[hondo]

Contrary to what people are hoping, this process is not a science. The committee members aren't all tabula rosa (Blank slate) participants. They bring in preconceived notions, biases, media biases, etc. RPI isn't going to be the primary thing many if any of the member use to determine bids. Seton Hall may well get a bid over one of our schools due to what conference it is in. I realize that popular sentiment says that conferences don't get bids, but I have more than a hard time believing that. SH plays Villanova, UConn, etc. and wins against ANY of the top teams can catapult them into a stronger position than a team like MSU who's best wins are also in conference but against UNI, BU, CU, and SIU.

To assume the best certainly makes you worry a lot less but is far from realistic. It's kind of annoying to here so many people cite the RPI as the reason. What about the odds a non-BCS conference will send 4 or five to the NCAA tournament? Has that happened before? Some sort of precedent is going to take a knock this year, and past experience says that those knocks don't favor non-BCS conference schools. That may not always be true, but it's true enough to worry me.

[Cr8nGrad]

What about the odds a non-BCS conference will send 4 or five to the NCAA tournament? Has that happened before? Some sort of precedent is going to take a knock this year, and past experience says that those knocks don't favor non-BCS conference schools.

Both the A10 and CUSA have done it a couple times....Doesn't mean it'll happen again for us, but it's not unheard of...

[hondo]

Both the A10 and CUSA have done it a couple times....Doesn't mean it'll happen again for us, but it's not unheard of...

I understand that it's happened. My point is that it's still something unusual, not that it has never been done before. Nor am I saying that things won't pan out the way that most of us think that they should, but it's pretty silly to start jumping up and down right now and a bunch of fans are doing just that. I'm still waiting. My team is close enough right now to lock it up with one win in the tournament.

They are probably still in, but I remember the last time we were "definitely in," because no one had ever had as low of an RPI and not made it. Guess what... we didn't make it!

[BlueDude]

Just a tidbit of history from: Wichita Eagle, Sat. - Aug. 20, 2005 - Paul Suellentrop

"Even with last season's good news, scheduling is still tough in the MVC and there are no guarantees the Northern Iowa story can be repeated. Some aspects of figuring out how to earn the favor of the selection committee puzzle Turgeon after his team finished second in the MVC and 44th in the RPI and ended up in the NIT."

[getreal4]

great tidbit BlueDude! Will be at least one Valley coach unhappy next Sunday and likely some interesting comments.

[DUShock]

You can't take this negative energy into the tournament man!

LOL, oh shi-ot I'm actually chuckling aloud; completely hearing Jeff Bridges voice when I read your posts "Man".

Abide on & know "the birds on the way..."

Go Valley!!

Go Shocks!!!!

[BlueDude]

A moment in time that the Wheat Heads of the South Central Kansas Plains won't easily forget.

However, it's easy for CU Hilltoppers and Ugly Freak Canines to forget. Let us pay Wichita State their just desserts.

I think a lot of us have lost sight of just how tough it is to make it to the NCAA's.

"They just don't hand them out on the corner." (NCAA invitations). - Dude

[getreal4]

A moment in time that the Wheat Heads of the South Central Kansas Plains won't easily forget.

However, it's easy for CU Hilltoppers and Ugly Freak Canines to forget. Let us pay Wichita State their just desserts.

I think a lot of us have lost sight of just how tough it is to make it to the NCAA's.

"They just don't hand them out on the corner." (NCAA invitations). - Dude


Keep em coming Dude!

[BlueDude]

Just for kicks:

Mid Major Top 25 : CU is 5-2 against the top 10 (CU is 11)

I know this at large process is like very complex, lotta ins, lotta outs, but that ain't too bad.

Oat sodas at noon, coitus at 2:30...in the parlance of our times.

[okstarsfan]

Just a tidbit of history from: Wichita Eagle, Sat. - Aug. 20, 2005 - Paul Suellentrop

"Even with last season's good news, scheduling is still tough in the MVC and there are no guarantees the Northern Iowa story can be repeated. Some aspects of figuring out how to earn the favor of the selection committee puzzle Turgeon after his team finished second in the MVC and 44th in the RPI and ended up in the NIT."

2nd in MVC and mid-40 RPI??....isn't that almost exactly the situation for SIU this time around??