One Bid League? [Archive] - ValleyTalk Forums

azbirdfan

03-09-2008, 12:04 PM

For the sake of the Valley, Illinois State has to make this a game. You know that the selection committee is watching this game right now and I'd hate to have their impression be very poor of our depth in our conference based on this game. I hate hearing the announcers saying that many "experts" are predicting that we're a 1 bid league.

CaliRdBrd

03-09-2008, 12:26 PM

I agree. Blocking out and getting some rebounds would help.

upsaluki

03-09-2008, 12:38 PM

I hope not. The bubble is really piss-poor this year. I think the Redbirds are solidly in.

Hein72

03-09-2008, 12:39 PM

I would be pissed if 24-9 :redbirds: get bounced by a bunch of 19-12 .500 in confrence BCS schools.

I will say. I am definitely worried. This game looks like the CU vs SIU championship game Korvers senior year.

:redbirds::bulldogs::valley:

Chairman of the Boards

03-09-2008, 12:41 PM

I hope not. The bubble is really piss-poor this year. I think the Redbirds are solidly in.

Agree... and regardless of today's outcome, they made it to the Championship game.

jaypharmalum

03-09-2008, 12:42 PM

Mark it down in ink - Illinois State will be dancing. Likely an 11-12 seed, but the MVC gets two.

CaliRdBrd

03-09-2008, 12:45 PM

A likely 30 point loss will not get us in. Not with UK winning, OSU winning and Syracuse. Those three teams are all likely in making it harder on the committee to take ISU.

WSUbballer

03-09-2008, 12:53 PM

ISU will be dancing.

It's a lock.

Ace Dad

03-09-2008, 12:57 PM

No way ISU gets a bid after this performance on national television.

I hope I am wrong.

CaliRdBrd

03-09-2008, 12:58 PM

A 10 point loss, sure. A 15 point loss, mabe. A 30 point loss on National TV - doubt it.

Hein72

03-09-2008, 12:59 PM

Honestly I didnt think ISU looked so bad just that Drake looked so good.

Watch out for Drake if they play like this in the NCAA tourney.

Hein72

03-09-2008, 01:00 PM

ISU isnt the only bubble team that has lost a game by 30+.

One thing that will be telling I think, if Drake comes out early before ISU and gets a 4 or 5 I think ISU is in. If Drake gets a 6 or worse ISU is NIT bound.

WSUbballer

03-09-2008, 01:06 PM

Seth Davis says it. Therefore, it shall be written.. :noexpression:

Aegyptus

03-09-2008, 01:06 PM

They are fine. They will be in. Sure it was a bad loss, but all they had to do was make the game. Don't worry too much about it. If the bubble was not ask weak as it is, then I would worry, but Illinois State is better than a lot of teams that will be getting in. Probably an 11 seed, but in ... that's all that matters.

WuDrWu

03-09-2008, 01:20 PM

ISU is in....this isn't a one bid league folks.

getreal4

03-09-2008, 01:23 PM

I also believe the redbirds are in but it will be a long week for the redbird faithful

Drake s/b a 4 seed Hoping for Omaha, Denver or Little Rock

:bulldogs::bulldogs::bulldogs::bulldogs::bulldogs: :bulldogs::bulldogs::bulldogs::bulldogs::bulldogs:

fillmore

03-09-2008, 01:32 PM

isu looked like they were a fluke to be in the championship game....and on national tv. they are going to need a lot of bad losses by some other bubble teams to have a chance now, and you know teams like uk will get in before isu.

9628

03-09-2008, 01:34 PM

Is today's debacle of a game just more evidence of how weak the MVC really is? One bid would not surprise me. This may be just the excuse the committee is looking for to keep us at one bid.

Bravesfan

03-09-2008, 01:43 PM

No way ISU gets a bid after this performance on national television.

I hope I am wrong.

Why not? The committee is going to keep ISU out of the tournament based on one game? I know it was a bad showing by ISU today, but if the committee bases their choice on one game, then they're really clueless!

:braves::redbirds::valley:

goaces

03-09-2008, 01:44 PM

ISU is in. The thirty point loss just conveys how Drake should be ranked higher than what they are. The earlier poster was quite right when he stated that this is the Missouri Valley Conference.
Don't worry Redbird and Valley fans....the win at SIU and your ride to the finals clinched your ticket to the dance.

skinny_uncle

03-09-2008, 01:48 PM

With 23 wins, the Redbirds should be in.

outpost

03-09-2008, 01:50 PM

This might put some doubt in the committee's collective mind. I hope not.

ILSU's resume is as good as just about anyone else's....and it's easy for one to make an argument that they earned a berth by virtue of just making it to the finals.

Bravesfan

03-09-2008, 01:51 PM

Seth Davis says it. Therefore, it shall be written.. :noexpression:

Well, there we go. Seth Davis's true colors show again today!

Any commentator worth squat knows that the committee will examine the entire body of work when determining whether a particular team is NCAA Tournament worthy or not. To continually see these so-called "experts" make a knee-jerk call based on one bad game is laughable! The only one of a few that I trust at least partially is Joe Lunardi, and even he is off sometimes. But at least he has a better grasp at what the committee looks at, and I don't think he will come to the conclusion that ISU is out based on one bad game.

Having said that though, I will wait to see his updated Bracketology to see if he agrees with my assessment or not.

:braves::redbirds::valley:

kw8489

03-09-2008, 01:53 PM

While I agree with the sentiment that ISU should be in, they just gave the committee a reason to keep them out. Their inclusion is far from a lock, and it is going to be a long week in Normal.

kw8489

03-09-2008, 02:01 PM

Well, there we go. Seth Davis's true colors show again today!

Any commentator worth squat knows that the committee will examine the entire body of work when determining whether a particular team is NCAA Tournament worthy or not. To continually see these so-called "experts" make a knee-jerk call based on one bad game is laughable! The only one of a few that I trust at least partially is Joe Lunardi, and even he is off sometimes. But at least he has a better grasp at what the committee looks at, and I don't think he will come to the conclusion that ISU is out based on one bad game.

Having said that though, I will wait to see his updated Bracketology to see if he agrees with my assessment or not.

:braves::redbirds::valley:
Not to single you out BF, but I don't agree with your argument here. If Florida were blown out by by Kentucky by 30 today I think many would have said Florida was done. The fact is ISU had one game to guarantee a tournament birth and not only didn't get it done they got absolutely dismantled.

You've got a handful of teams vying for the last few spots. A game like this will absolutely impact how the committee views a team, and I don't think that is necessarily wrong.

tBU

03-09-2008, 02:01 PM

With 23 wins, the Redbirds should be in.

What was ISU's final record ? The reason I ask is I think 23-9 and 1 game doesn't count for them. I think the committee will see 22-9. NOT that it makes THAT much difference.

azbirdfan

03-09-2008, 02:41 PM

Our final record was 24-9 with 23 "counting". As mentioned in another thread, our previous worst loss all year was by 13 to Indiana in Chicago. Every other loss was in single digits and decided in the last 2 minutes of the game. This game was completely out of the norm based on our entire body of work.

It's definitely going to be a nervous week for all Redbird fans and those in the Valley pulling for multiple bids. To have only 1 bid for the Valley would be terrible for our entire conference!!

Hail Red & White

03-09-2008, 02:45 PM

I think Illinois State was 24-9 (23-9 if you discount the non D-1 win). Anyhoo, ISU is sitting better than VCU who just got upset in the CAA semi's by William & Mary. At least the Redbirds finished 2nd in the MVC regular season and lost in the title game of the MVC tournament. ISU and Valley fans should pull for Butler over Cleveland State in the Horizon final and for the West Coast semi's to go to form tonight (Gonzaga vs. Santa Clara and St. Mary's vs. San Diego). BU-GU-SMC are all going to make it. CSU-SCU-USD have to win their conference tourneys to really make it a long week in Normal. Also, keep an eye on the Sun Belt Tournament. South Alabama is hosting the finals, but the Jaguars struggled to beat a fairly decent, but not great New Orleans team 81-77 in the quarterfinals today. Some have USA and Western Kentucky both in the field. Others have only South Alabama in the mix--should be a compelling Championship Week once again.

B4MSU

03-09-2008, 02:48 PM

Zero big wins outside of conference and getting hammered on national TV equal no bid. Sorry Redbirds- not going to happen. I wouldn't put much faith in the RPI- it doens't seem to apply to Valley schools.

Ace Dad

03-09-2008, 03:55 PM

If I am on the committee watching Drake beat the livin xhit out of ISU, I am wondering about ISU's total worth at tournament time. Sorry, they hold us to a different standard then they hold the loser of the Duke/NC final in the ACC.

Again, I want to be wrong. I want two teams from the Valley dancing.

SubGod22

03-09-2008, 04:21 PM

They're in.

jayfan04

03-09-2008, 04:33 PM

On sportscenter they had Lunardi and he showed 25 teams for what he predicts to be 11 at large picks. Illinois State was not one of them. So either he has them solidly in or he has them out after todays performance. I believe they are solidly in and I hope that Drake is coming to Omaha for the first and second round. I know I will have my Valley colors on for any Drake game at the Qwest and hopefully most other Jays fans will also so that we can make it a Drake home game atmosphere.

CaliRdBrd

03-09-2008, 04:44 PM

I honestly can't see us getting in after that performance. Face it, the Valley has not done anything that impressive this year (i.e. no real marquee wins). That combined with most of ISU's "impressive" wins are all of a suddenly not that impressive...Wright State is out, SIU was severly overrated, Creighton is NIT bound. When Cincy is considerd on our list of impressive wins, that's pretty sad. So, who did we actually beat?
In the end, it really depends upon what happens in other tournaments. You have to believe that teams that had no business being considered, are now in...Ohio State, Kentucky, etc.

SalukiProf

03-09-2008, 05:46 PM

Face it, the Valley has not done anything that impressive this year (i.e. no real marquee wins).

I would say there was one marquee win:

Drake 71
Butler 64

The Valley did pick up five other top 50 wins, but four of these were at home and one was on a neutral site:

St. Mary's 56
SIU 71

Mississippi State 49
SIU 63

Massachusetts 68
Northern Iowa 75

UAB 58
Wichita State 61

Western Kentucky 78
SIU 88

DannyCooksey

03-09-2008, 06:15 PM

Today's performance was awful beyond belief and it was extremely poor timing-wise. The last memory of the selection committee is ISU getting b-f'd on National TV by 30 points. That's not a good image.

I believe unfortunately that even though we deserve a bid and we are one of the 65 best teams, the committee won't see it that way, I'm afraid.

Many, many, many things will have to go right this week for the Birds to dance. All they had to do was play a competitive game and they were in. Very frustrating.

I'd say right now it's about 25%-50% chance they get in. The Valley as a whole just doesn't have the same national respect this season that they've had the last few seasons and that hurts too.

At the end of the day unfortunately the Birds left it in the committee's hands and that's just a terrible spot to be in. This will be a very nervous and very long 6 days.

jaypharmalum

03-09-2008, 06:58 PM

This may have been posted elsewhere, so I apologize if that is the case. Per ESPN:

Illinois State [23-8 (15-5), RPI: 31, SOS: 82] The Redbirds are into the Valley final and are now in a very strong position to get an at-large, even though they play Northern Iowa instead of Southern Illinois in the semis. Their best nonconference win was over Cincinnati, so not much out of Missouri Valley Conference play will help, but finishing second by multiple games in a top-10 league and getting to that conference's final is a pretty solid statement. Barring a disaster against Drake, the Redbirds should like their chances at this point.

WSUfan

03-09-2008, 07:14 PM

Is today's debacle of a game just more evidence of how weak the MVC really is?

No. It shows how good Drake is.

B4MSU

03-09-2008, 07:34 PM

Bears had much better RPI years at least twice and we got snubbed. I'm thinking bad thoughts- sorry.

Mecha_Bulldog

03-09-2008, 09:54 PM

I think ISU is in. A good RPI and clear second-place finish in the MVC should put them in the tourney. If they're left out, I think it will be because of their lack of quality wins, not their performance in the MVC final. I'm guessing ISU would love a do-over in those games against Indiana and Kent St right now.

Keita44

03-09-2008, 10:29 PM

Everyone said before the MVC Tourney that if Illinois State got two wins in the tourney, they were in the NCAA....

Guess what, they got the two wins, so they are in.

Today's loss showed how good Drake can be if we shoot well. Illinois State didn't play well, but they didn't play poorly either. Drake just went on something like a 20-0 run during which we hardly missed and if we did, we got the rebound and then scored.

If Illinois State gets snubbed because a team like a 18-11 Kentucky (who basically got dominated their entire non-conference, have since gone 12-4 in a weak SEC, and now have lost their best player) takes their place.......:ranting:

Illinois State deserves to be in the NCAA Tourney, and they will be in.

Hein72

03-09-2008, 10:52 PM

The committee will not bounce ISU for today performance. Though the egg they laid today didnt help what is really going to matter is that they dont have a big time win. They lost to Drake 3 times and the loss that is going to be absolutely killer for ISU is the Kent St. loss. If ISU doesnt make the tourney that will be why, not because Drake (a 4 or 5 seed) beat them by 30. The tourney recognizes that they just played 3 games in 3 days and that a let down is completely possible. Watch the big conferences show down this week, I guarentee you there are some big time eggs laid by some of those schools specially the deeper it gets in the tourney.

I have my worries for ISU but I do think they are in. A few things ISU really has going for them 8 for their last 10 and undisputed 2nd best team in the 8th best conference in the country (a confrence that has gotten in the last at least 2 the last 9 years and has had 3 sweet 16 teams in the last 2). For those 2 reasons they are in over schools such as UAB, Western Kentucky, and VCU.

By the way. Watch what Launardi does. His inside info will tip you off to whether ISU is in or out. I think currently he has ISU squarely in. If you can all remember last year he had MSU in until the final weekend until he replaced them with Stanford (who did absolutely nothing to help their case). If he bumps ISU out then I would start to panic.

:redbirds::valley:

:bulldogs: Even though shame on them for not letting ISU get back into the game. :no:

Hein72

03-09-2008, 10:56 PM

Today's loss showed how good Drake can be if we shoot well. Illinois State didn't play well, but they didn't play poorly either. Drake just went on something like a 20-0 run during which we hardly missed and if we did, we got the rebound and then scored.

Exactly my thoughts. ISU played like they were playing their 3rd game in 3 days. Drake played probably their best game of the year. It wasnt that ISU was just god awful and didnt even deserve to be on the same court. ISU had in fact lost very close games to Drake the other 2 times they played them. This game was a fluke.

Hein72

03-10-2008, 12:09 AM

http://sports.espn.go.com/broadband/video/videopage?videoId=3285491&categoryId=3285057&n8pe6c=1

That is what Lunardi thinks.

MetDrakeFan

03-10-2008, 01:40 AM

Mark my words... ISU is in - BARELY.

TNMSUFAN

03-10-2008, 10:56 AM

Kyle Whelliston is having a live chat on ESPN about mid majors and I saw this

Nick (Normal, IL): Hey Kyle, after yesterday's debacle on national tv will ISU still get an at large? How uncomfortable will this week be? They have been very strong all year and the RPI is still in the low 30's.

SportsNation Kyle Whelliston: (12:01 PM ET ) To all Redbird fans, I'd say save yourselves the heartbreak and let go now. The committee won't find any big-time wins (unfortunately, the Wright State victory was downgraded a little over the weekend), and the team's achilles shoed up again last night: defense. Look, it's been a great breakthough year with much more to come. Lots of juniors look to step up next season.

Here is the link
http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=19652

Tasmanian Devil

03-10-2008, 12:04 PM

the team's achilles shoed up again last night: defense.

I guess that statement confuses me. Isn't defense ISU's strong area?

DannyCooksey

03-10-2008, 12:11 PM

I guess that statement confuses me. Isn't defense ISU's strong area?

It is their strong area. They led the valley and were #12 in the country. The defense was the catylst for their 6 game winning streak until yesterday. Yesterday the defense was bad. But to imply that ISU is a bad defensive team is stupid. They just got whooped by a great team that has a great offesne and they shot 60%. I suspect Drake would have scored 79 on a whole lot of teams that will dance the way they played yesterday.

CaliRdBrd

03-10-2008, 01:27 PM

Lunardi still has the 'Birds in as an 11 seed - nice!

On another note, does Whelliston even know anything about ISU? As one other poster had already commentd, he points to the Redibirds defense as their achilles heal? What?!?! He later goes on to say he would select VCU over ISU or St. Mary's due to VCU's defensive intensity?

What Redbird team is this clown watching?

Lastly, can somebody send Lunardi a toothbrush? For Christsake, last night on ESPN, he looked like he ate a bag of cheetos mixed with chewing tobacco right before he went on the air - truly frightening.

TNMSUFAN

03-10-2008, 03:11 PM

I got the impression the only time Whelliston watched IL State was the MVC tournament championship game...I was confused by the defense comment also because I knew you guys have good defensive stats.

Hein72

03-10-2008, 04:39 PM

KW is a moron. Look at the bracketology records and look at how he did last year. The only person that is truly worth listening to is Lunardi and that is because he is getting inside info.

If VCU gets in and both St. Mary's or ISU dont Ill eat my bracket.

:redbirds::valley:

ISUMatt

03-10-2008, 04:48 PM

mproviz

03-10-2008, 06:52 PM

one bid league without a doubt. No one else has shown that they belong, based on strength of schedule and record.

Panthera Pardus

03-11-2008, 11:42 AM

One sentence statement, requires some elaboration, but we won't get it.

Hein72

03-11-2008, 09:35 PM

Gotlieb, a champion of the mids, tonight said that he thinks the MVC is going to be a 1 bid league. He did give very nice props to Drake and said they are going to be a team to watch in the tourney.

Scary for ISU. Its time to start preparing there are people jumping off of the ISU ship faster then you can believe. Need some help the next few days, starting with wins from Providence, Villinova, and Oregon St. tomorrow.