Teams in Post-season

[pantherhawk]

I personally think that Drake and Ill State are in the Dance. There is no way the committee can snub them, not after what they did to Hinson and the bears a few years back. I know Ill state doesn't have a flashy resume, but are they seriously gonna tell a team that is 25-9, (sorry we are going to take a team that is 18-11 and barely .500 in their own conference.) That is straight BS, IF the committee wants them to IMPROVE their RESUME, then make it a rule that BCS schools have to schedule MVC schools. It seems that MVC schools only get the Bigger in-State schools, that's it. We should really look into doing a MVC vs A-10 or MVC vs Pac-10 conference showdown. I don't know, something to improve our schedules.

NIT:
I look for Creighton and SIU to be strong locks in this tournament. They both deserve to be in it, they played brutal schedules. And they also have good teams, just a tough year in the MVC.

CBI:

Bradley or UNI take your pick. Neither one's resume is that impressive. Conference Rank should help these teams out I would Guess. I personally don't believe that some of those lower mid-major schools should be in this tournament. Allow some of the better ranked conference do battle against other conferences.

[Aces1982]

As these conference tournaments play out, I really think ISU is going to be left out. Some of the bubble teams are likely to play their way in.

I think the Valley only gets one bid this year.

[smsandmsuson]

I personally think that Drake and Ill State are in the Dance. There is no way the committee can snub them, not after what they did to Hinson and the bears a few years back. I know Ill state doesn't have a flashy resume, but are they seriously gonna tell a team that is 25-9, (sorry we are going to take a team that is 18-11 and barely .500 in their own conference.) That is straight BS, IF the committee wants them to IMPROVE their RESUME, then make it a rule that BCS schools have to schedule MVC schools. It seems that MVC schools only get the Bigger in-State schools, that's it. We should really look into doing a MVC vs A-10 or MVC vs Pac-10 conference showdown. I don't know, something to improve our schedules.

NIT:
I look for Creighton and SIU to be strong locks in this tournament. They both deserve to be in it, they played brutal schedules. And they also have good teams, just a tough year in the MVC.

CBI:

Bradley or UNI take your pick. Neither one's resume is that impressive. Conference Rank should help these teams out I would Guess. I personally don't believe that some of those lower mid-major schools should be in this tournament. Allow some of the better ranked conference do battle against other conferences.

I think ISU is in but if they get left out, they have no one but themselves to blame.

[Topiary]

We could always blame Drake for not taking the starters out sooner

[Mecha_Bulldog]

Is the CBI going to be beneath the NIT in pecking order? Is it possible the two tournaments will compete for teams?

[SycamoreFanatic]

I'm thinking Pantherhawk is smoking wacky backy if he really thinks UNI is going anywhere but home to wait for next season.

[pantherhawk]

[I]I'm thinking Pantherhawk is smoking wacky backy if he really thinks UNI is going anywhere but home to wait for next season.

You never know, there have been times where teams were not supposed to be in and got the nod. Now did i ever say they were a guarantee lock? NO! But the two teams that tied for 5th place (where did In state end up, i can't read that far down the standings) still have a shot. The CBI stated "we are over looking RPI and want to find teams in top conferences that get left out of the NIT." Ya never know, I hoping for the best for the MVC.

[Mecha_Bulldog]

You never know, there have been times where teams were not supposed to be in and got the nod.

Yeah, but Bowlsby isn't on the CBI selection committee this year :grin:

[redbirdtim]

I've heard the CBI is going to try and invite the #66 team and go after bigger names, but they will probably receive no's from all the teams (or a very large majority of them) going to the NIT. Look for BU to be the Valley rep in the CBI.

[pantherhawk]

that could be, i wouldn't be surprised if some teams decline the invite. my guess was Bradley too, but them and UNI tied for 5th place and like the CBI chairperson stated "We are going to look past RPI". So RPI, SOS, all that crap is out the window. Should be interesting to see who is playing and who is not.

[DoubleJayAlum]

like the CBI chairperson stated "We are going to look past RPI"

I guess I translate this a little differently. To me it sounds like, "we are going to look for teams that draw well so that we can make sure we make a buck on this tourney."

[LincolnJay]

that could be, i wouldn't be surprised if some teams decline the invite. my guess was Bradley too, but them and UNI tied for 5th place and like the CBI chairperson stated "We are going to look past RPI". So RPI, SOS, all that crap is out the window. Should be interesting to see who is playing and who is not.

Teams with the possibility of an NIT first round home game had to sign a contract in their application for a home game {yes, you must "bid" for a home game} that says if they get an NIT invite, they will accept. Thus, scrap your idea that anyone that is in the running for a top 4 seed in the NIT will turn it down for a CBI bid.

[Mecha_Bulldog]

I guess I translate this a little differently. To me it sounds like, "we are going to look for teams that draw well so that we can make sure we make a buck on this tourney."

CBI: "Sure, Iowa State is below .500, but we like their intangibles, like a 13k+ average home attendance."

[underdawg2]

I personally think that Drake and Ill State are in the Dance. There is no way the committee can snub them, not after what they did to Hinson and the bears a few years back. I know Ill state doesn't have a flashy resume, but are they seriously gonna tell a team that is 25-9, (sorry we are going to take a team that is 18-11 and barely .500 in their own conference.) That is straight BS, IF the committee wants them to IMPROVE their RESUME, then make it a rule that BCS schools have to schedule MVC schools. It seems that MVC schools only get the Bigger in-State schools, that's it. We should really look into doing a MVC vs A-10 or MVC vs Pac-10 conference showdown. I don't know, something to improve our schedules.

NIT:
I look for Creighton and SIU to be strong locks in this tournament. They both deserve to be in it, they played brutal schedules. And they also have good teams, just a tough year in the MVC.

CBI:

Bradley or UNI take your pick. Neither one's resume is that impressive. Conference Rank should help these teams out I would Guess. I personally don't believe that some of those lower mid-major schools should be in this tournament. Allow some of the better ranked conference do battle against other conferences.

Only one BIG problem for SIU. It has been reported that Mullins has had bad leg problems for the last four games (probably shin splints) and was on crutches this week. If you didn't notice, he played the entire UNI MVC Tourney game in pain and limped badly. Don't know if we can beat anyone without him.:no:

[JasonAtBradley]

CBI:

Bradley or UNI take your pick. Neither one's resume is that impressive. Conference Rank should help these teams out I would Guess. I personally don't believe that some of those lower mid-major schools should be in this tournament. Allow some of the better ranked conference do battle against other conferences.

I looked at how both teams did against the top 6 teams in the Valley (other than themselves):

Northern Iowa:

Drake: 0-2
Illinois State: 1-1
Southern Illinois: 1-1 (2-1 if you count the MVC tournament)
Creighton: 0-2
Bradley: 1-1

Bradley:

Drake: 1-1
Illinois State: 1-1
Southern Illinois: 0-2
Creighton: 1-1 (1-2 if you count the MVC tournament)
Northern Iowa: 1-1

Both teams are 4-7 if the MVC tournament is counted, with UNI's wins against SIU and Bradley's wins against Drake and Creighton being the differences.

In addition, Bradley faced two top 25 teams (and almost won both games) during non-conference play, while UNI faced no top 25 teams. Bradley won against Iowa at a neutral court, while UNI lost against Iowa on their home court.

If the CBI selection committee takes into account injuries, we definitely have a good chance of getting into the CBI. When we didn't have Ruffin, we were 2-7 in league play (2-6 with the injury, and 0-1 with the suspension). I'm not sure if UNI had any of their main players missing for a while due to injury or suspension, but it is another thing to consider.

In the end, I think Bradley has a better chance getting into the CBI, though there are probably plenty of better teams who got shafted from the NCAA and NIT that will probably get in.

[Majik45]

Bradley also has a better chance at the CBI because if we were to get a home game, we'd get at least 9,000 fans in the seats. I'm thinking the CBI would like that.

[getreal4]

Whats the buy for a home CBI game? $50K???

[Keita44]

I looked at how both teams did against the top 6 teams in the Valley (other than themselves):

Northern Iowa:

Drake: 0-2
Illinois State: 1-1
Southern Illinois: 1-1 (2-1 if you count the MVC tournament)
Creighton: 0-2
Bradley: 1-1

Bradley:

Drake: 1-1
Illinois State: 1-1
Southern Illinois: 0-2
Creighton: 1-1 (1-2 if you count the MVC tournament)
Northern Iowa: 1-1

Both teams are 4-7 if the MVC tournament is counted, with UNI's wins against SIU and Bradley's wins against Drake and Creighton being the differences.

In addition, Bradley faced two top 25 teams (and almost won both games) during non-conference play, while UNI faced no top 25 teams. Bradley won against Iowa at a neutral court, while UNI lost against Iowa on their home court.

If the CBI selection committee takes into account injuries, we definitely have a good chance of getting into the CBI. When we didn't have Ruffin, we were 2-7 in league play (2-6 with the injury, and 0-1 with the suspension). I'm not sure if UNI had any of their main players missing for a while due to injury or suspension, but it is another thing to consider.

In the end, I think Bradley has a better chance getting into the CBI, though there are probably plenty of better teams who got shafted from the NCAA and NIT that will probably get in.

A couple of things here:

Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't Illinois State beat UNI in the semifinals down at St. Louis? So UNI would have an additional loss there.

Also, the Iowa comparison doesn't hold much water since Tony Freeman (the man that made things go for Iowa this year, although they didn't go too well....) didn't play in the Bradley game, but then did in the UNI game.

While I agree that Bradley is the better team this year and deserves to be in some kind of postseason, I don't think they would get a good matchup in the CBI. They are intending for it to be a lot of major conference teams with a home game for the higher seed. This would be a killer schedule (since BU wouldn't be likely for one of those top seeds), but would at least be a chance for Bradley to get a couple more games.

[Aegyptus]

As to the CBI "looking past RPI" ... that absolutely is saying we are going to openly privilege BCS teams. If you are an unknown mid and just missed the NIT ... too bad.

On SIU and their chances ... I am fine with Mullins being hurt. In fact, I wouldn't even play him. The NIT means little anyway and the team needs to learn how to play without him. If it were up to me, I wouldn't play Shaw or Falker either. I would let them see the court a little just because it is their last year, but I would put some of our young guys out there the whole time. Force Fay and Bone to be the go to guys for a game or two and see how they respond. Those 2 are going to have to step up their games in a big way next year, so might as well start building some confidence now.

Finally, I think Bradley could get a home game in the CBI. They draw pretty well and it gives an honorary home game to a "mid-major", albeit a high drawing mid-major. If you give a home game to Bradley then you can give the rest to BCS teams and no one will be able to complain.

[jb399]

I may be wrong, but I have always thought when a lot of big conference schools don't get into the big dance, they usually don't care too much about the NIT. Is giving them another lower tournament to go to going to be such a good idea?

[upsaluki]

As to the CBI "looking past RPI" ... that absolutely is saying we are going to openly privilege BCS teams. If you are an unknown mid and just missed the NIT ... too bad.

On SIU and their chances ... I am fine with Mullins being hurt. In fact, I wouldn't even play him. The NIT means little anyway and the team needs to learn how to play without him. If it were up to me, I wouldn't play Shaw or Falker either. I would let them see the court a little just because it is their last year, but I would put some of our young guys out there the whole time. Force Fay and Bone to be the go to guys for a game or two and see how they respond. Those 2 are going to have to step up their games in a big way next year, so might as well start building some confidence now.

Finally, I think Bradley could get a home game in the CBI. They draw pretty well and it gives an honorary home game to a "mid-major", albeit a high drawing mid-major. If you give a home game to Bradley then you can give the rest to BCS teams and no one will be able to complain.
We really don't have the depth to do that, and CLo has been embarrassed enough this season. I would be shocked if Shaw and Falker didn't get the lion's share of the minutes.

[shockball]

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=240

March 14, 2008
From 341 to 65
Through March 13


by Joe Sheehan


Terrible Thursday. That’s what we’re going to call it. Bubble teams around the country, given winnable games to boost their resumes and either lock up tournament spots or advance to a critical resume-boosting game, spit the bit in record numbers.

When I posted yesterday morning’s piece, 27 teams were listed on the bubble. Of those, 12 lost yesterday, nearly half of the category. Among those 12 losses were defeats at the hands of Boston College (14-16, RPI 124), Charlotte (20-12, 65), Colorado (11-19, 157), Tulsa (19-12, 109), Utah (16-13, 94), Georgia (13-16, 139) and Alabama (17-15, 102). Way to play your way out of the field, everybody.

The effect of these losses is a smaller bubble, and the ability to just about put some more teams in the field. Then again, it also creates confusion, as no matter what happens over the next couple of days, there are going to be teams in the discussion for the final spots who ended their season with a terrible loss, some of whom have other problems with their resumes, as well.

Let’s start with the easy stuff. Losses by Oregon (to Washington State, again), Maryland (to BC) and Florida (to Alabama) push those teams off of the bubble. Kent State’s win over Toledo in the MAC quarters, coupled with the thinning of the ranks, pushes them into the “In” bin. Throw Louisville and Notre Dame, losers in the Big East quarterfinals, onto the board.

Here’s how the spreadsheet looks as of 9:30 a.m. Friday morning:

On the Board (5): St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, Connecticut, Louisville, Notre Dame.

Remember, these are teams that I have as locks for the field, who cannot take an automatic bid.

In (25): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Xavier, Kansas, Texas, Georgetown, Marquette, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan State, Memphis, Kent State, Brigham Young, UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC, Tennessee, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Kentucky.

Those 25 teams represent 10 conferences, which means that group has to take 15 at-large bids at minimum. Because two of these teams must take auto bids in the Big East and Pac-10 (all survivors in those leagues are listed above) there’s a maximum of 23 at-large bids here. Realistically, the group will take 21 to 23. For now, we’ll keep calling it 23. That number drops today and tomorrow as major-conference teams get eliminated from conference tournaments and move to the big board.

Automatic Bids (14): Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Winthrop (Big South), Cornell (Ivy League), Drake (Missouri Valley), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), Siena (MAAC), George Mason (Colonial), Davidson (Southern), San Diego (WCC), Oral Roberts (Summit), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Butler (Horizon), Mount St. Mary’s (Northeast), Portland State (Big Sky). Remaining certain one-bid leagues include the America East, Big West, MEAC, Patriot, SWAC, Southland and WAC.

Bubble (23): Miami (Fla.), Virginia Tech, Massachusetts, St. Joseph’s, Temple, Dayton, Kansas State, Baylor, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Syracuse, Villanova, Ohio State, VCU, UAB, Illinois State, UNLV, New Mexico, Arizona State, Arizona, Arkansas, Mississippi, South Alabama.

Somewhere between six and 14 at-large bids remain for this crowd, which I currently order as such:


Miami (Fla.). In with a win today, probably in without it, but given that it’s against low-bubble Virginia Tech, they stay on the list for now.


Oklahoma. Like Miami, probably regardless of today’s result, but let’s let them avoid the terrible loss to Colorado before we put them in. Remember the cardinal rule: Once you’re in, you don’t come out, so I tend to be hyperconservative.


South Alabama. The regular-season title and sweep of Western Kentucky look good here, especially with few BCS schools moving past them.


Illinois State. See above. The catch is the complete lack of nonconference pop, and three losses to Drake. Still, the second-best team in the Valley should be good for a bid in this environment.


Kansas State. The winner of their game with Texas A&M goes in, the loser stays in this list. Neither team played well down the stretch, and while both do better subjectively than objectively, Kansas State has slightly better wins, a head-to-head victory, and finished two games up in the conference.


St. Joseph’s. As mentioned, the committee almost never skips over teams in the A14, and takes 9-7 teams from the conference at the same rate. St. Joseph’s, however, has good markers: nine road wins and 12-6 away from home, a win over Xavier, a sweep of UMass and an obliteration of Villanova. A win over Xavier today puts them in, and they might get in with a loss.


Villanova. That evisceration by St. Joe’s is not helping their case, because they’re almost dead even otherwise. ‘Nova has good home wins over Connecticut, West Virginia and Pittsburgh, and probably gets a subjective bump for their tough losses in which questionable calls were made at high-leverage spots. They’re probably in.


Arkansas. In with a win today against Vanderbilt. Doesn’t anyone in the NCAA want to make this easy on us?


Texas A&M. If they lose today to Kansas State, you could argue that they haven’t beaten a tournament team since February 2. They’d close with six losses in nine games. They might still get in; oddly connected to Ohio State, which is their only top 50 win out of conference. If TOSU beats Michigan State today, Texas A&M’s resume will be stronger.


UNLV. Tried to play their way out of the field by letting TCU put up 88 points last night. Fortunately, they scored 89. A win tonight over Utah should put them in.


Arizona. The Wildcats will be controversial one way or another. I just don’t think you can give a team all of these passes for injuries when on the court, in various conditions, they’re 4-8 since the end of January, and the only team they’ve beaten since February 23 is Oregon State, which is essentially meaningless. They’ve lost to Arizona State, Washington and Oregon in that span, and none of those teams are going to the tournament. Despite their strength of schedule, and the likelihood that this is one of the 34 best “collections of talent” in the pool, putting them in would be a mistake.


Virginia Commonwealth. The outright winner of a good conference, VCU had a better-looking case before Houston and Maryland fell apart. The loss to William and Mary in the Colonial semifinal will probably cost them a spot, unless all the chalk wins in the remaining multi-bid leagues.


Baylor. That was a hideous loss, and now stamps Baylor as the #6 team in the Big 12. A win over Kansas State, and a neutral-court win over Notre Dame, are keeping them in the discussion, but this feels like a last four out situation.


Temple. The #2 team in a top ten conference that reaches the semis of its tournament is an awfully strong candidate. Temple was hurt by Charlotte’s upset of Massachusetts, as they could have used a shot at UMass to burnish their credentials. A win today over Charlotte is going to make them a very complicated case.


Ohio State. It’s pretty simple: beat Michigan State, and get into the tournament. It should be interesting to see how this one is called. Fair or no, it’s clear that the Big 11 has a lot invested in the outcome of that game.


Massachusetts. The six-game winning streak disappeared in the second half of last night’s A14 quarterfinal, as the Minutemen gave up 50 second-half points to lose a game they might have needed. Like VCU, UMass’ nonconference wins (Syracuse, Houston) don’t look nearly as good as they did six weeks ago, and their 10-6 mark in the A14 is good, not great. They’re right on the line.


UAB. The loss to Tulsa isn’t terrible, but should seal their fate, regardless. They simply couldn’t afford to lose before the final.


Virginia Tech. If they beat Miami today, they become a viable at-large candidate.


Syracuse. They’ll stay on the bubble, but it’s hard to see a 9-10 team with no nonconference pop and losses to teams above them on this list making the dance.


New Mexico. The committee has made some generous Mountain West selections in the past, so the Lobos stay on the bubble even after last night’s loss to Utah. They’re almost certainly done.


Dayton. They needed to beat Xavier. Unless you grant them an even bigger pass for injuries than you do Arizona, they’re out.


Mississippi. Hard to see a 7-10 SEC team get a bid, although the Rebels have enough nonconference work to stay on the list.


Arizona State. RPI isn’t everything. However, the Sun Devils’ mark of 82 would be the lowest ever for an at-large team. They’re 5-10 since January 17, and they laid an egg yesterday in a game that would have probably put them in. Yes, we get it: they hammered Xavier at home three months ago. It’s not enough.

Back later today as events warrant.

[getreal4]

Saturday AM predictions

Drake is likely a 5 seed in Tampa

Ill St should be an 11 seed 12 if the BCS fix is on

SIU NIT
CU NIT

Bradley & UNI can get CBI games if they are willing to pay the $$$

[upsaluki]

I was worried ISUred was going to be NIT bound until black Thursday.:fear: Now I think they will be solidly in.

[shockball]

updated Sat am
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=244

.....
Elsewhere, we finally had teams playing their way into, rather than out of, the tournament. Oklahoma, Nevada-Las Vegas, Arkansas and Texas A&M have moved off of the bubble and onto the “In” list, and St. Joseph’s is in good shape as well, regardless of whether they beat Temple for the Atlantic 14 crown. By not losing, South Alabama and Illinois State have improved their positions, and even VCU can at least sit down in front of the TV tomorrow with some hope. The committee considers regular-season performance in your league, and all three of those have strong points in that area.
:redbirds:

[getreal4]

SIU & Creighton look to be midpack NIT

Bradley can get a CBI game if they want it

UNI will be home wishing they'd had a backup pt guard. :grin: